That's nice that you know how to read an article but you seem to shift the focus of the point. The point is you spend the same amount of money and on 2 bets as 6 you will win much more when your percentage is higher. I don't care what your damn article says, I hit 60% last year, I hit exactly 60% last month and I will hit 60% again this month. It's not rocket science idiot, and I would be willing to place my system against yours, bitch.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Cappthespread:
I don't care what your damn article says, I hit 60% last year, I hit exactly 60% last month and I will hit 60% again this month. It's not rocket science idiot, and I would be willing to place my system against yours, bitch.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
LMAO Like I said before, if you consistently hit 60%, you wouldn't waste your time selling your picks for $8.
I see that your shit website claims you're monitored by the sports monitor, but the funny thing is, I can't find you anywhere on that site. You're a fvcking liar, and I sincerely hope nobody in dumb enough to fall for your lame and dishonest tactics.
I don't care what your damn article says, I hit 60% last year, I hit exactly 60% last month and I will hit 60% again this month. It's not rocket science idiot, and I would be willing to place my system against yours, bitch.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
LMAO Like I said before, if you consistently hit 60%, you wouldn't waste your time selling your picks for $8.
I see that your shit website claims you're monitored by the sports monitor, but the funny thing is, I can't find you anywhere on that site. You're a fvcking liar, and I sincerely hope nobody in dumb enough to fall for your lame and dishonest tactics.
it's on the site, the fact that you can't find it is no surprise though, being the ****in idiot you are poses problems for anything you do.
You have no right calling me dishonest or a liar, who the **** do you think you are? Why don't you post your plays for a month and we will see how good you are? Yeah it's easy to sit there and spout out lies that have no backing so put your money where your mouth is.
You have no right calling me dishonest or a liar, who the **** do you think you are? Why don't you post your plays for a month and we will see how good you are? Yeah it's easy to sit there and spout out lies that have no backing so put your money where your mouth is.
Some good stuff here...but it may be time for you guys to visit the rubber room with the name calling.
Can't we all just get along?
sb
Can't we all just get along?
sb
pja101, why dont you just go to the Pick of the Day POD thread and download all the stats, it list ever day the one pick they posted, closing line, final score and won or loss, with ytd and last 10 day stats. we have many cappers well over 60%, of which capthespread is not one of them. spend more time on analysis and not this he said she said stuff
capp, you're right. There are many, many services listed on that monitor, and I definitely could've missed it. Just post a link to a page that contains you, and that particular problem will be resolved.
Pops69, if you read the thread, you'd know that I said that it is certainly possible to hit 60% or even higher in a particular sport, or even in a calendar year. I simply stated that it is impossible to have a 60%+ lifetime winning percentage, and if one does, they are missing out on profit because it is too high.
Pops69, if you read the thread, you'd know that I said that it is certainly possible to hit 60% or even higher in a particular sport, or even in a calendar year. I simply stated that it is impossible to have a 60%+ lifetime winning percentage, and if one does, they are missing out on profit because it is too high.
Oops, I was wrong, cap. I checked again, and guess what, this time I found you!!!!! It took a while though, since you were near the bottom.
Cappthespread is currently ranked 392 out of 534, with an AMAZING RECORD OF 35-32, OR 52.24%!!!!!!!!
+274.0
-444.30
For a total of -170.30
Give it up, toutboy. YOU LOSE.
[This message was edited by pja101 on February 03, 2004 at 10:22 PM.]
Cappthespread is currently ranked 392 out of 534, with an AMAZING RECORD OF 35-32, OR 52.24%!!!!!!!!
+274.0
-444.30
For a total of -170.30
Give it up, toutboy. YOU LOSE.
[This message was edited by pja101 on February 03, 2004 at 10:22 PM.]
And if anyone else wants to see for themselves, here's the link:
http://www.usasportsmonitor.net/allCappers.asp?SC=0
Go all the way down to 392, and you'll find my dear friend, capp.
http://www.usasportsmonitor.net/allCappers.asp?SC=0
Go all the way down to 392, and you'll find my dear friend, capp.
started jan 5th, not all the games on their are games we recommended, started out using 1 unit plays instead of 20 unit plays like we do now, so our units are negative instead of positive
But your right pja, your definitely losing money if you are hitting 55% of plays 60%
like I said, put your money where your mouth is, I will hit 60% this month what will you do? Put your plays on here for a month and so will I, we will see who is the tout, bitch
But your right pja, your definitely losing money if you are hitting 55% of plays 60%
like I said, put your money where your mouth is, I will hit 60% this month what will you do? Put your plays on here for a month and so will I, we will see who is the tout, bitch
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Cappthespread:
started jan 5th, not all the games on their are games we recommended, started out using 1 unit plays instead of 20 unit plays like we do now, so our units are negative instead of positive
But your right pja, your definitely losing money if you are hitting 55% of plays 60%
like I said, put your money where your mouth is, I will hit 60% this month what will you do? Put your plays on here for a month and so will I, we will see who is the tout, bitch<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, I expected some sort of excuse, but I'll admit, I expected a little better, even from you.
You said, " Put your plays on here for a month and so will I, we will see who is the tout, bitch"
Well, since I don't sell my plays for $8, and YOU DO, you're the tout, bitch. But, if you'd enjoy a friendly little contest, we can start next week.
started jan 5th, not all the games on their are games we recommended, started out using 1 unit plays instead of 20 unit plays like we do now, so our units are negative instead of positive
But your right pja, your definitely losing money if you are hitting 55% of plays 60%
like I said, put your money where your mouth is, I will hit 60% this month what will you do? Put your plays on here for a month and so will I, we will see who is the tout, bitch<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, I expected some sort of excuse, but I'll admit, I expected a little better, even from you.
You said, " Put your plays on here for a month and so will I, we will see who is the tout, bitch"
Well, since I don't sell my plays for $8, and YOU DO, you're the tout, bitch. But, if you'd enjoy a friendly little contest, we can start next week.
We got a challenge here Gang. Now fellas, what will you be wagering for?
Some of these prizes could be awarded to the winner, but you guys of course will decide the rules.
-Loser is banned from the RX
-Loser must for a year with the name of the winner and a quote of the winners choice.
anyone have any other types of things these guys could wager on. Good luck to both of you. Mano e Mano.
Some of these prizes could be awarded to the winner, but you guys of course will decide the rules.
-Loser is banned from the RX
-Loser must for a year with the name of the winner and a quote of the winners choice.
anyone have any other types of things these guys could wager on. Good luck to both of you. Mano e Mano.
LOL cocaptain, I don't care. How about if he loses, he will swear to finally go get that GED.
In conclusion, I fully understand what you were trying to argue, capp, but I refused to adress it because it wasn't our original arguement. You'd tried spinning numbers to make yourself appear smart.
Of course, playing 2 plays per day at $330 hitting 60% is potentially more profitable than 6 plays a day at $110 for 55%. The problem is, the bettor risking 3% of his bankroll probably wouldn't be around long enough to count his money. You see, all it would take would be one good losing streak to end your bankroll. Despite the fact that I'm playing many more games and would encounter streaks at a quicker day-to-day pace, the chances of you hitting that run before me are astronomically larger. I not going to actually calculate the probabilities right now, because I'm much too tired and much too drunk. Successful gamblers attempt to make as large as a profit as possible using the smallest risk. You're 3% per play risk is way too large, and you would lose your bankroll much too quickly.
[This message was edited by pja101 on February 04, 2004 at 11:48 AM.]
In conclusion, I fully understand what you were trying to argue, capp, but I refused to adress it because it wasn't our original arguement. You'd tried spinning numbers to make yourself appear smart.
Of course, playing 2 plays per day at $330 hitting 60% is potentially more profitable than 6 plays a day at $110 for 55%. The problem is, the bettor risking 3% of his bankroll probably wouldn't be around long enough to count his money. You see, all it would take would be one good losing streak to end your bankroll. Despite the fact that I'm playing many more games and would encounter streaks at a quicker day-to-day pace, the chances of you hitting that run before me are astronomically larger. I not going to actually calculate the probabilities right now, because I'm much too tired and much too drunk. Successful gamblers attempt to make as large as a profit as possible using the smallest risk. You're 3% per play risk is way too large, and you would lose your bankroll much too quickly.
[This message was edited by pja101 on February 04, 2004 at 11:48 AM.]
You obviously don't understand the risk reward relationship. There are obviously plays that are far stronger than others, if you knew anything about the business of gambling you would know this. The purpose of a line is set up an even 50-50 split on wagers, thus earning juice on both sides. Because of the complex databases and models the oddsmakers have they can predict with a certain confidence the winner of a game. Using this data and the data on wagering trends, favorites, team plays and various other projections a line is set. Some lines will have holes in them because certain teams have larger fan bases, certain trends get more attention. If you can find these holes you can consistently make a good profit. Of course in a day's time their may be about 10 games like this, once they are found you can narrow the games down,based on certain analysis techniques, to 1-3 games. So yes it is possible to hit that high of a percentage.
I was never trying to twist anything, if you go back you will see my argument was very clear.
P.S. I have an advanced finance degree, have worked for a sportsbook, and will be a featured handicapper on vegasinsider.com starting baseball season. Just let me know when you want to start.
I was never trying to twist anything, if you go back you will see my argument was very clear.
P.S. I have an advanced finance degree, have worked for a sportsbook, and will be a featured handicapper on vegasinsider.com starting baseball season. Just let me know when you want to start.
Capp, you've finally said some things in the above post that I actually agree with. Though, you're still missing the point.
If I'm understanding your last post correctly, you're saying that, everday, there are numerous games where the line is off. I agree. You said if there are ten of these games on a given day, you'll narrow it down to one to three. That's where you're thinking is wrong!
Yes, some games have a greater percentage than others to win. I have my own databases, make my own lines, and this is clear as day to me. Games in which one side has a huge advantage are certainly very profitable, but so are the ones with a small advantage. A small advantage is still an advantage, which should be taken advantage of. Get it?
Games where your numbers predict a 60% win percentage for one side are profitable over a long period of time, but so are games predicted to hit 59, 58, 57, 56, 55, 54, 53, and even lower, depending on the odds. You can't argue that!
Are you saying that if you're numbers showed a side to have a 57% win rate, you wouldn't play it because it is less than 60%? If so, you're missing out on profit.
Are you following now?
If I'm understanding your last post correctly, you're saying that, everday, there are numerous games where the line is off. I agree. You said if there are ten of these games on a given day, you'll narrow it down to one to three. That's where you're thinking is wrong!
Yes, some games have a greater percentage than others to win. I have my own databases, make my own lines, and this is clear as day to me. Games in which one side has a huge advantage are certainly very profitable, but so are the ones with a small advantage. A small advantage is still an advantage, which should be taken advantage of. Get it?
Games where your numbers predict a 60% win percentage for one side are profitable over a long period of time, but so are games predicted to hit 59, 58, 57, 56, 55, 54, 53, and even lower, depending on the odds. You can't argue that!
Are you saying that if you're numbers showed a side to have a 57% win rate, you wouldn't play it because it is less than 60%? If so, you're missing out on profit.
Are you following now?
That makes sense in theory if you had a limitless bankroll but look:
100*.55 =55
100*.56 =56
100*.57 =57
100*.58 =58
100*.59 =59
100*.60 =60
Average total one will make per day = 345
300*.60 = 180
300*.60 = 180
Average total one will make per day = 360
This is simple probability, it is wiser to not only take the safer bet but the more consistently profitable.
As you can see the mathematics support what I am saying. Over the long run this small disparity becomes much larger. Yes you can make money by hitting 52-60% but you can make more money by only playing 60% and putting more on it.
100*.55 =55
100*.56 =56
100*.57 =57
100*.58 =58
100*.59 =59
100*.60 =60
Average total one will make per day = 345
300*.60 = 180
300*.60 = 180
Average total one will make per day = 360
This is simple probability, it is wiser to not only take the safer bet but the more consistently profitable.
As you can see the mathematics support what I am saying. Over the long run this small disparity becomes much larger. Yes you can make money by hitting 52-60% but you can make more money by only playing 60% and putting more on it.
You're right. We don't have a limitless bankroll. That's why it's better to keep a small average bet size over many games. The more bets you place, the more predictable your results become.
Though, it's all relative. Personally, my average wager is just below 2% of my total bankroll. You talk of playing less games and going big. How big are you talking about. 5%? 8%? 10%? Please clarify what you mean when you by attempting to hit 60% and putting more on it. What percentage is "more?"
Though, it's all relative. Personally, my average wager is just below 2% of my total bankroll. You talk of playing less games and going big. How big are you talking about. 5%? 8%? 10%? Please clarify what you mean when you by attempting to hit 60% and putting more on it. What percentage is "more?"
We recommend placing 3-5% based on the game we have and how strong a play it is. We haven't had a losing month yet and most of my customers are fairly happy with the nearly +8 unit per month average we have shown. Risk aversion is what we look for because it's the most profitable way to play. If you know your going to lose 5 more games than me every one hundred that's just money your throwing down the drain.
