Michigan got a bad matchup here. I'm not surprised or upset that UM was #1 but getting either or Alabama or Georgia in the #4 spot was not their ideal setup. Not to play conspiracy guy but I think from the rankings it's obvious that the committee, and the NCAA, wants Washington in the National Title game (or they would have wanted 1 loss Oregon). The "feel good" story of the PAC-12 winding down with a National Championship opportunity for one of it's departing heroes sounds much better than the grumbling of football fans telling a story about how TV money, NIL deals, and deep pocketed boosters & big conference affiliations have taken the place of W & L's and tradition.
Here's my jump analysis of the UM/Alabama matchup. First off, this is a coaching mismatch and with the extra time to prepare I think coaching will play a big role. Saban will dump it on Harbaugh. UM has battered it's way through the Big 10 the last couple of years and have risen to the top by being the most physical and punishing of the conference members. Whether intentional or not this had to be done to counter the supreme athleticism, speed, and fast twitch freaks that Ohio St. had been accumulating and using to run around UM with. It took a while but this year, in an obvious down year for OSU's overall athleticism, their physicality put them over the top. Alabama has improved as the year progressed and the extra practices will benefit QB Milroe probably more than any player on either team. If any player can improve in the month window, it's him...this cannot be built into the line. What Michigan does is what the SEC has consistently done better than any other conference and what Alabama has consistently done better than any other team, beat you up with better athletes and big, physical players who dominate individual matchups. The student is attempting to school the master and I don't think the changing. of the. guard is in full effect just yet. I can't see Michigan making any big plays in the passing game and with two gruff running games I like some designed runs for Milroe and a better defensive gameplan for Bama to be the difference. Coaching will be a major factor too. Stodgy Saban has shown the ability to improvise and adjust in these types of game setups, both prior and in-game (onside kick) while Harbaugh has not shown the same ability and rides the bronze deer all the way to the bottom. That will matter here too if things go poorly for UM early on.
I don't think this Michigan team would have made it through an SEC schedule undefeated. I made the number Alabama -2 and was surprised they opened as a dog after ending the Bulldogs unbeaten streak. I took some of that +2 already.
I don't like the other matchup but will fade the winner in the Natty title game vs either Michigan or Alabama. Either of those two D's will frustrate and outperform the offenses they'll be facing.