Both are lower level MAC teams and neither one of them play defense (318 & 340 in Def Eff) but CMU does have the better Off Eff and Tempo. WMU has not won a game away or on a neutral court, CMU is 9-1 at home. I took CMU -3 at home. Thanks for pointing them out.
I am looking at one more but can't get into any research until later... I let you know if it looks promising.
I hate going against CBBPhenom. But, Ball State has played a cream puff schedule compared to Buffalo according to Kenpom. Plus, Buff has gone 3-2 the last 5 with the two losses by 1 point. Also, Ball embarrassed Buff on their home court earlier this season and I see a revenge game tonight. I like Buff +3. I guess one of us is going to be right!! LOL!!
ointer:
Both have played 9 conference games: Buff is 4-5, Ball 6-3. To your point - of Buff's 5 losses, 4 were against teams above .500; of Ball's 3 losses, none were to teams above .500. On the other hand, of Buff's 4 wins, only one was to a winning team (EMU); of Ball's 6 wins, only one was to a winning team (also EMU). The two 1 point losses were away games (Akron currently 9-0 and Miami currently 2-7).
I will admit, I know very little about the MAC but let me ask you one question -- If you could eliminate that one point loss to Akron, would you have the same argument?
As it is I was never sure about Ball beating Buff tonight, I just made some analysis and asked CBB what he thought? What I will probably do is wait to place my bet and if CMU beats WMU, I'll make the Ball bet. At this point I am still leaning Ball but your post has provided another opinion and given me pause.
Another item to consider: Using today's ESPN Rankings - RPI: Buf-183, Ball-203; BPI: Ball-149, Buff-155.
And my last comment: You are right bout the SOS when you consider all games. Eliminate the very difficult non- conference teams Buf played and the much easier non-conference teams Ball played... what would you get for the overall SOS for both teams?
