Cavs still a lock to make it to Finals?

[PatsFan1283]

Why? We are dealing with humans not robots. Emotion is part of it. Not everything is X's and O's. Or else all of those basketball experts would always be correct. But they're not. Ask jay bilas, doug gottlieb, and all of those other nerds who think they know the game and just the game. Those guys can't predict a damn thing.

Yeah, a part you are going to have a tough time analyzing. You said Kyrie Irving is content, you really believe that is a real variable at play right now? He's 25 years old, he won 1 title. He's been in the playoffs 2 seasons!

I'm not saying it is some mythical thing. Obviously the Spurs were a team on a mission after that 2013 loss, but they didn't win the title because they were a team on a mission, they won the title first and foremost because they were really, really good.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Yeah, a part you are going to have a tough time analyzing. You said Kyrie Irving is content, you really believe that is a real variable at play right now? He's 25 years old, he won 1 title. He's been in the playoffs 2 seasons!

I'm not saying it is some mythical thing. Obviously the Spurs were a team on a mission after that 2013 loss, but they didn't win the title because they were a team on a mission, they won the title first and foremost because they were really, really good.

What? I said...." I am not saying they are content and don't want to repeat....."


I would reread. I never said Kyrie Irving is content. I said he proved he is elite. There is a difference. Never said he was content at being elite. I just said he is there now. He is looked at and perceived as elite. There's a big difference.

 

[PatsFan1283]

"Hunger for one. Chip is off the shoulder. Kyrie has proved he is elite now. Lebron has delivered."

If he isn't hungry and a chip is off his shoulder then he is more content and doesn't want it as much. That is what you said.

What else could that possibly mean?

 

[HugeUnderdog]

If you think you can gauge motivation and you want to include it into your thought process in terms of figuring out probability then go ahead, I'm not saying it is always misguided but it is more on the end of emotional thinking. Most of the that armchair psychologist stuff is fluff to me. But it certainly makes for a more interesting television conversation than talking about who can and can't switch a pick and roll.

Its not a method of calculating probability. Never suggested that. The math is the math. I get that. I have been around for a while and I know today that this is true. If you have a "math model for the sport you want to bet and only use that you may never make a bet. The books have evolved quite a bit and are now using the tools they got beat with 10-15 years ago when offshore was relatively young. You can use intangibles pretty effectively, certain situations stand out. Why do you think most players regardless of the sport perform really well vs their former teams then go back under their rock after. I'm not saying you are wrong in your train of thought. But I think you are too quick to dismiss something that may actually be true and useful just because it goes against your beliefs. respect your opinion. How about we here make a thread where we point out plays where we thing there is an "intangible edge" from here to december and see how it goes. Maybe we learn something.

 

[HugeUnderdog]

So the numbers say Cavs are a lock to win the east. Is that right? How does our opinion change if somebody else wins it? Luck? The numbers didn't say so!
just curious. We can literally fins any excuse. But we may never say the dog was motivated to win because they lose to this team all the time. have you guys
never been in a fight with a bigger guy in school? been bullied a few times and said enough? Maybe not you but somebody else can tell you their story. Numbers
are against you! Its all intangibles after that.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

"Hunger for one. Chip is off the shoulder. Kyrie has proved he is elite now. Lebron has delivered."

If he isn't hungry and a chip is off his shoulder then he is more content and doesn't want it as much. That is what you said.

What else could that possibly mean?

I wouldn't call it being content though lol. He wants to be great. Did you see him shooting after the spurs blowout? He definitely isn't content and wants to be great. But the role is changed. People think the cubs will have the hangover because of how emotional their win was. But I am saying it's the cavs. It's not just about Kyrie like you are making it seem lol. It's an affect on the entire team.


He's perceived stronger now than he ever was after last years finals. He was the side kick...now he's the guy. Roles have changed.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Its not a method of calculating probability. Never suggested that. The math is the math. I get that. I have been around for a while and I know today that this is true. If you have a "math model for the sport you want to bet and only use that you may never make a bet. The books have evolved quite a bit and are now using the tools they got beat with 10-15 years ago when offshore was relatively young. You can use intangibles pretty effectively, certain situations stand out. Why do you think most players regardless of the sport perform really well vs their former teams then go back under their rock after. I'm not saying you are wrong in your train of thought. But I think you are too quick to dismiss something that may actually be true and useful just because it goes against your beliefs. respect your opinion. How about we here make a thread where we point out plays where we thing there is an "intangible edge" from here to december and see how it goes. Maybe we learn something.

We're starting to diverge on different paths in the conversation. I'm not saying it never matters, I'm saying it doesn't matter much in terms of figuring out who can and can't win their conference in professional basketball.

In the regular season, where it is a long grind with back to backs and many games that aren't of the utmost importance, certainly motivation plays a very big role. Because not every team is on equal footing with motivation at the exact same time.

But that isn't really applicable to what we're talking about.

The Celtics first year with KG/Pierce/Allen had 3 guys that had been getting their asses kicked on bad teams for years, then they came together and never took the foot off the breaks for 9 months, that is a situation where it mattered. If you thought to yourself "KG is a lunatic and is gonna wanna kill teams" you would've made a lot of $ betting them that year. But these are rare big picture scenarios.

And that team had 3 hall of famers that were still relatively in their primes, that's the reason they won more than anything else. Did being motivated help them win the title? Sure, you know what else helped? That the Lakers had Vladimir Radmonovich guarding Paul Pierce become Ariza was injured.

 

[PatsFan1283]

So the numbers say Cavs are a lock to win the east. Is that right? How does our opinion change if somebody else wins it? Luck? The numbers didn't say so!
just curious. We can literally fins any excuse. But we may never say the dog was motivated to win because they lose to this team all the time. have you guys
never been in a fight with a bigger guy in school? been bullied a few times and said enough? Maybe not you but somebody else can tell you their story. Numbers
are against you! Its all intangibles after that.

The numbers don't say they are a lock, they say they have a 75% chance. Pretty far from a lock.

I think you're taking what I'm saying and interpreting it into something else. What I'm saying is if the Wizards beat the Cavs I think the majority of the reason for that is not going to be based on Kyrie Irving not wanting it enough, it's going to be based on the fact he sucks defensively and John Wall is going to ruin him.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Having a chip on your shoulder is a luxury in the world of sports bro. You don't just make it up. Lol it has to be something real

 

[PatsFan1283]

I wouldn't call it being content though lol. He wants to be great. Did you see him shooting after the spurs blowout? He definitely isn't content and wants to be great. But the role is changed. People think the cubs will have the hangover because of how emotional their win was. But I am saying it's the cavs. It's not just about Kyrie like you are making it seem lol. It's an affect on the entire team.


He's perceived stronger now than he ever was after last years finals. He was the side kick...now he's the guy. Roles have changed.

So if he is more motivated how is that a problem because he "wants to be great"...Don't follow.

You think it has potential to become a Kobe/Shaq alpha dog type thing and implode?

I dunno, I doubt it. He ain't that nice.

 

[HugeUnderdog]

"I'm not saying it never matters, I'm saying it doesn't matter much in terms of figuring out who can and can't win their conference in professional basketball"

Yea, I'm talking more on a specific game basis.

 

[TrackGabe]

Durant best player?

 

[HugeUnderdog]

"The numbers don't say they are a lock, they say they have a 75% chance. Pretty far from a lock".

Yea, well I referred to lock because its the title of the thread thats all. Yes, the numbers are what they are. And many times are inflated because of speculation.
Thats why we do what we do. Break it down and find the weak spots.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

The numbers don't say they are a lock, they say they have a 75% chance. Pretty far from a lock.

I think you're taking what I'm saying and interpreting it into something else. What I'm saying is if the Wizards beat the Cavs I think the majority of the reason for that is not going to be based on Kyrie Irving not wanting it enough, it's going to be based on the fact he sucks defensively and John Wall is going to ruin him.

For sure but it isn't one on one. The team can help kyrie you know. John wall wont fry him anyway without shitting on the entire defense. Because wall will have to blow by him to score

 

[PatsFan1283]

"I'm not saying it never matters, I'm saying it doesn't matter much in terms of figuring out who can and can't win their conference in professional basketball"

Yea, I'm talking more on a specific game basis.

But the thread isn't about specific game by game regular season stuff, it's about having a macro forecast on the playoffs. If it were then you would be right, motivation is huge in the regular season. Getting up for certain games and whatnot. But you know what else? It is pretty hard to predict that stuff and most of it like B2B's, tough scheduling is all priced into the line anyway.

 

[HugeUnderdog]

Having a chip on your shoulder is a luxury in the world of sports bro. You don't just make it up. Lol it has to be something real

I do believe it to be real. I can't argue if anybody feels like such terms are watered down because of the media and game callers though.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Durant best player?

Yes by far

 

[PatsFan1283]

For sure but it isn't one on one. The team can help kyrie you know. John wall wont fry him anyway without shitting on the entire defense. Because wall will have to blow by him to score

So you say Kyrie isn't content, he wants to be great. What is your issue with that then?

You think he'll try to outshine LeBron similar to when Carlton tried to take the final shot when Will was having a big game in Fresh Prince?

I don't really see how this is a problem unless he starts playing suboptimal. Are you saying his newfound swagger will lead to that?

 

[HugeUnderdog]

But the thread isn't about specific game by game regular season stuff, it's about having a macro forecast on the playoffs. If it were then you would be right, motivation is huge in the regular season. Getting up for certain games and whatnot. But you know what else? It is pretty hard to predict that stuff and most of it like B2B's, tough scheduling is all priced into the line anyway.

I still believe you have to look beyond the numbers if you want to give yourself the best shot at making money betting. How does anybody bet division and conference winners at - money? Some of these teams are heavy favs to begin with. So what do you guys turn to? How could you use anything but intangibles. Your window to find value is limited. As the games are played out the numbers get tougher and tougher to beat.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Looking at coaching, X&Os, player ability, matchups through eye test is looking beyond #'s though. It's subjective analysis.

Saying the Cavs aren't going to exert the effort to win that they did last year is also subjective analysis, but it's much harder to predict and like you said, 90% of the time it is just sensationalist fluff.

I don't really understand the other part of your question. You try to make +EV bets based on your expectation of what will happen vs the arket price/oddsmakers. That's about it.