I must be in denial with the Jays then. Been trying to pick my spots with them but getting harder. What discussion have me had? Homer bets... only once or twice T....hno:
LOL, just ribbin ya a little, but they aren't the same as a couple of months ago, that's for damn sure. Like I said, I played Tampa +1+ Monday night, I got a couple of guys on the forum that can vouch for it because I pm'd them what I was playing. Nice hit with the Cubbies though for you and BossMan, I'm just a little shell shocked right now, every damn pitcher seems to be doing the opposite of what I expect, lol. Must be the pitchers, right????????? LMAO! GL my friend, we got this (or that's what I keep telling myself).
~T~
I don't doubt you t.... they are not the same as they were last year at this time. They lost their swagger. Every pitcher doing the opposite of how I think they play just as you think. We got this....
Let's go with the team doing better... varkeyboy should like this
Chicago white Sox +103 4 units
Seattle -153 3 units
Top Three reasons why the Blue Jay offence is a shadow of its former self...
1. The Bottom Of The Order
One of the most important ingredients to the Blue Jays’ offensive recipe that produced 891 runs in 2015 was the contribution made by the bottom of the order.
The bottom-three spots in Toronto’s batting lineup were populated at various times by Ryan Goins, Kevin Pillar, Ben Revere, Danny Valencia, Chris Colabello, Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Thole, Dioner Navarro, Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Darwin Barney and Devon Travis. All of those different personalities and skill sets became a powerful weapon.
The 7-8-9 spots in the order accounted for 461 hits in 1,709 at-bats and a .270 batting average. The group had 144 extra-base hits, including 42 homers and 203 RBI. They stole 33 bags and scored 250 runs. The OBP was a more-than-respectable .328 to go with a slugging percentage of .403, thus creating an impressive OPS of .735. They accounted for 146 walks and 343 strikeouts.
No other 7-8-9 combination came close to matching those numbers in 2015.
Alas, neither have the 2016 Blue Jays.
This year’s group at the bottom of the order has included many of the same names with the addition of Michael Saunders, Junior Lake, Darrell Ceciliani and, of late, Melvin Upton, Jr. But the mix has changed more than you might think. Without Navarro for the bulk of the season, Thole ended up with many more at-bats and has hit a sickly .155. Where Valencia and Colabello each hit both for average and power, none of the newcomers has replaced them.
So, statistically speaking, the 2016 version of the bottom of the order has fared poorly. In 1,555 at-bats, they have more than 100 fewer hits (350). The batting average is a puny .225, the OBP is .277 and the OPS sits at .610, a full 125 points worse than last year. Where the club really feels the pain is on the bottom line: 90 fewer runs and 70 fewer RBIs from those three places in the batting order.
2016 Batting Order Positions
POS / AB / R / H / HR / RBI / BB / SO / BA / OBP / SLG / OPS
1-2 / 1164 / 204 / 307 / 50 / 152 / 153 / 247 / .264 / .353 / .465 / .818
3-6 / 2182 / 323 / 562 / 126 / 379 / 286 / 569 / .258 / .348 / .486 / .834
7-9 / 1555 / 160 / 350 / 29 / 134 / 103 / 398 / .225 / .277 / .333 / .610
2. Runs Without Homers
The perception of the 2015 Blue Jays was that they lived and died by the home run. That is patently false.
The 2015 Blue Jays did hit a massive number of homers — 232 to be exact — but the truth is that home runs played a part in only 41.6% of their runs. Home runs accounted for 371 of their 891 runs, which means they scored 520 runs without the use of the home-run ball. That is more homerless runs than any other team in baseball in 2015. The only team that came remotely close to manufacturing that many were the Yankees, who scored 501 runs without the luxury of a home run.
That ability to take what the opposing pitcher is giving you has eluded the 2016 Jays, even though many of the same veteran hitters are on the team. Indeed, during spring training, it seemed as if the Jays had, in fact, improved their offence. They were looking at a full season of Troy Tulowitzki, plus the returns of Michael Saunders and Devon Travis after injury-riddled seasons. There was also the belief that both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista were due for big numbers as each sought a new contract.
But the statistical evidence doesn’t lie. Toronto’s reliance on the home run has stifled its ability to score in other ways. The Jays have scored 695 runs, and home runs have accounted for 46.3% of them. To this point in the season, they have scored 373 runs without the use of the long ball. That’s 2.57 runs per game. In 2015, they scored an average of 3.21 runs/game without a home run.
A huge factor in that inability to manufacture runs has been the elevated strikeout rate in 2016. The Jays are averaging 8.45 strikeouts a game. A year ago, they were among the lowest teams in strikeouts per game at 7.10. It’s difficult to score runs if you don’t put the ball in play.
3. Late and Close
Hanging on to leads has been a serious problem for the Blue Jays.
It isn’t just a function of bullpen failures, though that is part of it. One of the hallmarks of the 2015 Jays was their ability to add on. If they had a 4-2 lead after four innings, they were just as likely to make it 7-2, then 9-2 to mitigate against a bullpen meltdown.
This season it hasn’t worked out that way.
Toronto has outscored its opponents 390-311 in the first five innings of games this year, which has allowed them to take the lead 81 times. They have managed to lose 20 of those games. Conversely, they have trailed in 44 games after five innings and only were able to win 11 of those games.
Fifteen times, they have led into the seventh inning and lost. Seven times they have led going into the eighth inning and lost. Good teams don’t allow that to happen. The Baltimore Orioles, for example, have lost only four games that they led into the seventh and have lost only twice when leading after seven.
Likewise, the Cleveland Indians are 63-5 when leading after six, 68-3 when leading after seven and 74-1 when leading after eight. The Cubs are 82-4 when leading after seven and 84-1 when leading after eight.
As mentioned, it’s not all about the relief pitchers. The offence has to bear the blame for some of those losses, especially when they have failed to add on runs in games they were already leading.
THE RUNDOWN
Opponents Runs Allowed By Inning
Inning / Runs
1 / 54
2 / 62
3 / 62
4 / 71
5 / 62
6 / 80
7 / 102
8 / 54
9 / 60
Extras / 14
Blue Jays Runs Scored By Inning
Inning / Runs
1 / 100
2 / 49
3 / 103
4 / 80
5 / 58
6 / 83
7 / 77
8 / 97
9 / 41
Extras / 7
1. The Bottom Of The Order
One of the most important ingredients to the Blue Jays’ offensive recipe that produced 891 runs in 2015 was the contribution made by the bottom of the order.
The bottom-three spots in Toronto’s batting lineup were populated at various times by Ryan Goins, Kevin Pillar, Ben Revere, Danny Valencia, Chris Colabello, Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Thole, Dioner Navarro, Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Darwin Barney and Devon Travis. All of those different personalities and skill sets became a powerful weapon.
The 7-8-9 spots in the order accounted for 461 hits in 1,709 at-bats and a .270 batting average. The group had 144 extra-base hits, including 42 homers and 203 RBI. They stole 33 bags and scored 250 runs. The OBP was a more-than-respectable .328 to go with a slugging percentage of .403, thus creating an impressive OPS of .735. They accounted for 146 walks and 343 strikeouts.
No other 7-8-9 combination came close to matching those numbers in 2015.
Alas, neither have the 2016 Blue Jays.
This year’s group at the bottom of the order has included many of the same names with the addition of Michael Saunders, Junior Lake, Darrell Ceciliani and, of late, Melvin Upton, Jr. But the mix has changed more than you might think. Without Navarro for the bulk of the season, Thole ended up with many more at-bats and has hit a sickly .155. Where Valencia and Colabello each hit both for average and power, none of the newcomers has replaced them.
So, statistically speaking, the 2016 version of the bottom of the order has fared poorly. In 1,555 at-bats, they have more than 100 fewer hits (350). The batting average is a puny .225, the OBP is .277 and the OPS sits at .610, a full 125 points worse than last year. Where the club really feels the pain is on the bottom line: 90 fewer runs and 70 fewer RBIs from those three places in the batting order.
2016 Batting Order Positions
POS / AB / R / H / HR / RBI / BB / SO / BA / OBP / SLG / OPS
1-2 / 1164 / 204 / 307 / 50 / 152 / 153 / 247 / .264 / .353 / .465 / .818
3-6 / 2182 / 323 / 562 / 126 / 379 / 286 / 569 / .258 / .348 / .486 / .834
7-9 / 1555 / 160 / 350 / 29 / 134 / 103 / 398 / .225 / .277 / .333 / .610
2. Runs Without Homers
The perception of the 2015 Blue Jays was that they lived and died by the home run. That is patently false.
The 2015 Blue Jays did hit a massive number of homers — 232 to be exact — but the truth is that home runs played a part in only 41.6% of their runs. Home runs accounted for 371 of their 891 runs, which means they scored 520 runs without the use of the home-run ball. That is more homerless runs than any other team in baseball in 2015. The only team that came remotely close to manufacturing that many were the Yankees, who scored 501 runs without the luxury of a home run.
That ability to take what the opposing pitcher is giving you has eluded the 2016 Jays, even though many of the same veteran hitters are on the team. Indeed, during spring training, it seemed as if the Jays had, in fact, improved their offence. They were looking at a full season of Troy Tulowitzki, plus the returns of Michael Saunders and Devon Travis after injury-riddled seasons. There was also the belief that both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista were due for big numbers as each sought a new contract.
But the statistical evidence doesn’t lie. Toronto’s reliance on the home run has stifled its ability to score in other ways. The Jays have scored 695 runs, and home runs have accounted for 46.3% of them. To this point in the season, they have scored 373 runs without the use of the long ball. That’s 2.57 runs per game. In 2015, they scored an average of 3.21 runs/game without a home run.
A huge factor in that inability to manufacture runs has been the elevated strikeout rate in 2016. The Jays are averaging 8.45 strikeouts a game. A year ago, they were among the lowest teams in strikeouts per game at 7.10. It’s difficult to score runs if you don’t put the ball in play.
3. Late and Close
Hanging on to leads has been a serious problem for the Blue Jays.
It isn’t just a function of bullpen failures, though that is part of it. One of the hallmarks of the 2015 Jays was their ability to add on. If they had a 4-2 lead after four innings, they were just as likely to make it 7-2, then 9-2 to mitigate against a bullpen meltdown.
This season it hasn’t worked out that way.
Toronto has outscored its opponents 390-311 in the first five innings of games this year, which has allowed them to take the lead 81 times. They have managed to lose 20 of those games. Conversely, they have trailed in 44 games after five innings and only were able to win 11 of those games.
Fifteen times, they have led into the seventh inning and lost. Seven times they have led going into the eighth inning and lost. Good teams don’t allow that to happen. The Baltimore Orioles, for example, have lost only four games that they led into the seventh and have lost only twice when leading after seven.
Likewise, the Cleveland Indians are 63-5 when leading after six, 68-3 when leading after seven and 74-1 when leading after eight. The Cubs are 82-4 when leading after seven and 84-1 when leading after eight.
As mentioned, it’s not all about the relief pitchers. The offence has to bear the blame for some of those losses, especially when they have failed to add on runs in games they were already leading.
THE RUNDOWN
Opponents Runs Allowed By Inning
Inning / Runs
1 / 54
2 / 62
3 / 62
4 / 71
5 / 62
6 / 80
7 / 102
8 / 54
9 / 60
Extras / 14
Blue Jays Runs Scored By Inning
Inning / Runs
1 / 100
2 / 49
3 / 103
4 / 80
5 / 58
6 / 83
7 / 77
8 / 97
9 / 41
Extras / 7
