Can you really win money over the long term (season /year) or are we all just lying to ourselves?

[d3nv3r]

I think for a new bettor the best way is to sit down at least 1 hour a day and go through games and really nit pick the best play, keeping it to 1 or 2 best bets a day. Don't go crazy and start betting leans and teams you "like" you will lose in the long run for sure.

Also pay attention to line movement, this is very important.

 

[sheaven77]

I cant stress this enough, money management, and control of your emotions are the two greatest factors in becoming a successful sports gambling investor. I killed the books week 1, week 2, got cocky, and got crushed week 3. Hindsight is always 20/20, but I can look back at last week's wagers, and precisely see where I let my emotions get the best of me. I started varying wager amounts, exotic wagers I.E(teasers, reverses) in which my right mind I would never do.

Bankroll
Straight bets
Equal Amounts
Don't Stray the course

GL in your endeavors sir.

 

[LoCalDallasGuy]

I think you would really enjoy life more if you wager for entertainment purposes only.

 

[Apothic]

There is a ton of info on this site and several legit members that post plays in whatever respective sport you choose. Spend the time to look at posts and past history, even the best post records will have some douche complaining about a free pick they lost rent money on. Ask in the forums and people will tell you who to tail or fade. If you don't have the time or the knowledge (most people don't) just find someone here who does and wager whatever % you feel comfortable with, I use 4%-8% but everyone is different. Remember you'll have to hit 52.4 % to break even. -Good Luck !!!

 

[OzCap]

Apothic raises a good point, but just to be a little pedantic on the last post, and it is an important point as you build systems....you don't need to hit 52.4% to break even. You only need to hit that if you are betting the spread on a consistent dimeline (-110). If you can get a consistent nickel line against the spread you only need 51.2% (and that makes a HUGE difference!). Better still if you find a method against true dog lines (+100 or better) then your break even actually goes below 50%.

Also keep REALLY good track of your bets, it will seem like tedious work (and it is), but soooo worth it in the long run as you can track how different methods/angles/models fair.

Three take home points?

- Shop your lines, arguably the most important thing you can do . Forget bonuses, go to the books that offer the sharpest lines (prefer nickel lines if you can find them). 52.4% @ -110 = 0% profit, 52.4% @ -105 = 2.28% profit

- Have accounts at multiple books if you can even 5dimes and Pinnacle may not have the best odds for the bets you want. Adding 0.5 points to a line or and extra 10 points to a ML odds can add 1-2% to your long term profits/success.

- Track you bets like an accountant!

(FYI, my grandfather was a bookie and his advice when I was growing up? "Only the government wins with betting" [because of taxes]....clearly I am a stubborn jackass and ignored his advice )

Remember, ALWAYS enjoy life no matter what bets you have. Don't let it pass you by while you constantly watch scoreboards (unless you are a 2nd Half player). I place the bets and go have fun. Check at the end of the day and account your bets. Then prep for the next day.

Good luck!
Oz

 

[packer2012]

Now…. Here comes a crotchety old man…. With some more definite truth.

If, by whatever means you are able to win consistently……. You CANNOT continue to do so at the same book. Vegas or offshore. They simply will not permit it. If the amounts are anything at all significant…. Soon you will be severely limited and then CUT-OFF. PERIOD.

The “sharps” you hear about are few and very far between. They are either well established…. Meaning the book values their opinion and sees wisdom in knowing who they are playing and in return lets them profit (but not in a big way) or….
They (the sharps) have to go through a laborious procedure of hiring beards to place their bets….. and even their beards are limited and cut-off as time goes by.

Sounds more difficult than before. That’s because it IS!

Then if you are not betting in a controlled environment like Vegas…. You have to win the money TWICE. That means you win it…. And then you have to hope and pray to get paid.

Just being honest!

 

[kaufenpreis]

Last 12 monthes my bank decreases 25 times to zero and i was doing new deposits.

 

[Akillies]

biggest mistake most make is overbetting their bankroll
stick to 1% or 2% and you will find it much easier over time to show a profit

 

[TomandJerry]

I used 5% of my Bankroll or more since I start little but want good paid out. for example, I deposit 1000, so withdraw 2500 or 3000 would be nice to my goal.
If I deposit 500, my goal would be 2000 and timeline is 6 weeks or less. So if I play 5 to 10% of my bankroll, maybe I won the first couple weeks, but if it come close to my goal, I still bet less than last couple week amounts in order to reach my goal safer. ONE thing to remember: Never get greedy! Even when you are on the roll or BIG roll.

 

[phillysfinest]

T and J, great question that you bring to the table. I will answer it from my perspective, you seem to have received some pretty good answers so far.

My answer is definitely yes. It's taken me a long time to realize how to be successful consistently with a lot of reflecting and evaluating and lots of experience. The two top traits you MUST have in order to be consistently successful are DISCIPLINE and PATIENCE. If you are betting more than 5 games a week, I don't think you can be successful. I compare it to any other kind of gambling, the longer you are at the table the greater your chances of losing. These fellow gamblers and touts that I see putting out 10-20 plays a week are making this thing more difficult than it is. Let the plays come to you. During the course of any sport's season, there are SO many above average opportunities to win. The problem is the average gambler can't wait and bets compulsively and rather than capitalize on these opportunities uses these games to catch up rather than get up (bankroll wise). The less losers you bet the more money your winners will make you. For me, a lot of these above average opportunities revolve around schedule, revenge, motivation, and location. There are also situational opportunities and statistics that I draw from in coming up with plays. Ultimately there has to be at least two good reasons involving the opportunities I mentioned above for me to make a play. This might result in me having a couple plays on any given week but I'd rather go 2-0 than 5-4. When I started placing bets cause I wanted to and not because I had to (e.g. play catchup) my bankroll really started to multiply.

Money management is crucial as well. When I stopped betting with the local bookie, it helped as well. I now have 2 sports books and I never let my balance exceed $1000. This helps me keep my bets in check. Before I'd let the balance grow but what it really did is it played a part in me betting too much on any one game. Keeping my balance low while transferring my winnings to me helps keep my bets sharp and motivation strong.I hope my perspective helps. Making a consistent long term profit in sports is really achievable and easier than you think if you follow the advice above. Good luck!

 

[totovski]

OK, so most fo you are saying it is possible, most of you are doing it, but no one is saying how? What's the catch? I have been trying few services this year, (paid) 2 are OK, but mostly they are just breaking even, few turned out to be fake, and I have one more now to validate. To many scammers, to many schemes people ofer..but it takes time to find the one that works. And when I do, I will post it here, believe me. I don't see why not.

 

[phillysfinest]

Totovski, the advice I gave above is about as specific as you could get. Bet infrequently, make bets that you could substantiate(revenge, motivation, schedule, location), and bet reasonably. As a rule for me if my usual bet amount is 300 I ask myself would I be willing to bet 1000( I do this as a gauge of my true confidence in the pick). I have yet to place a bet this week but I am looking at 3 possibles for tonight: T-Wolves, Miami Heat, and Spurs. If it's a go I'll post it in the NBA forum.

 

[totovski]

Ok, I understand, but I am not able to follow the sports, So I am looking for someone who knows how and pay for the service. On the otherhand, why would someone share that, if one can make money betting...

 

[phillysfinest]

Not sure they are actually wagering enough, if at all, to make a living. It's easier with solid marketing to make a living off gamblers who are compulsive more than anything else.

 

[totovski]

If marketing, its a scheme then...win or loose, they only win...

 

[cloverleaf]

Mr. T...ask yourself this question. IF YOU could make good money betting sports on your own...why in hell would you become a "game pusher."

Most of these so called "Expert Game Pushers" would give one of their nuts to hit 55% on the season.

Young players are taken to the cleaners every season by these clowns. What's sad, many veterans jump in and buy the same BS year after year.

 

[totovski]

sad, but true...

 

[cloverleaf]

I have been at theRX for several years....can't remember a thread with more solid information given for it's readers.

Damn good information...no one preaching....everyone helping...with some experience weighing in.

Dadgum Friends, theRX has many faults....BUT a lot of SMART gaming men available to its readers ain't one of them.

Any doubt why RX is the best....

 

[kaufenpreis]

From my brief experience in this field (betting), I think it’s possible to earn money from betting in the long run; however betting on sports for a living it’s far away in my opinion; there are too many variables involved in this venture, too many ups and downs; It requires a great deal of mental strength, patience and time as you mentioned.

It’s not easy to have 3 good weeks in profit to finally succumb in the 4th week of a month and feel all your hard work went to trash, or more specifically when a late goal in the minute 90+3 spoils one, two or three bets every weekend, or when you calculated 85% to 90% of success and just fails miserably. Those are key moments when the big crowd of gambling enthusiasts lose their heads, trying to recover lost money with bigger stakes, gambling on anything just because it’s on TV; I went through all that and the emotional roller coaster associated with it which it’s not a healthy at all.

I think success or failure when trying to turn betting into a steady source of income it’s mostly based on how strong your mindset is to react when it turns sour (and there are plenty of sour moments in this activity), only those who are able to lead with it the best possible way can be successful because it’s NOT EASY AT ALL!

 

[OverUnder]

Best advice one could give is to examine all of the variables that go into a play and make your move primarily based on fact and probability. Don't get emotional.