There is no one out there hitting 60% on a substantial number of picks. It is also very unlikely anyone is hitting 57% over 3000+ bets. Most are very very happy with 54%.
If you start with 10,000$ and bet 1% per game and hit 60% at -110 and make 1000 bets/year, guess what you have in 10 years?
$87,600,000,000 That's 87 billion.
Anyone think people are hitting 60%?
Sean
If you start with 10,000$ and bet 1% per game and hit 60% at -110 and make 1000 bets/year, guess what you have in 10 years?
$87,600,000,000 That's 87 billion.
Anyone think people are hitting 60%?
Sean
I even thinK 57% over 1,000 bets or more is out of the question.
I am on the hottest run of my life and am betting huge quantities and 55% is where I have been. Almost impossible to sustain that. Over 100 bets sure but over 1,000 probably not, over 10,000 NO WAY!!!!!
The good thing is 54% over alot of plays wins you alot of money if lines average -108 or so. Alot of money, but the key is alot plays.
I am on the hottest run of my life and am betting huge quantities and 55% is where I have been. Almost impossible to sustain that. Over 100 bets sure but over 1,000 probably not, over 10,000 NO WAY!!!!!
The good thing is 54% over alot of plays wins you alot of money if lines average -108 or so. Alot of money, but the key is alot plays.
Of course there are thousands that make money gambling. THOUSANDS.
If you bet 20K per game, and go 54-46 over a football season, you made about 140K (give or take depending on juice).
Why is that so hard to understand or believe that people do this?
If you are betting 20 bucks a game you are most likely not going to make a living. If you are betting 200K a game chances are it will be pretty easy.
If you bet 20K per game, and go 54-46 over a football season, you made about 140K (give or take depending on juice).
Why is that so hard to understand or believe that people do this?
If you are betting 20 bucks a game you are most likely not going to make a living. If you are betting 200K a game chances are it will be pretty easy.
Blackjack House Edge Calculator<TABLE style="FONT: 12px Arial" height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>
Enter any set of blackjack rules from the options below. The house edge under proper basic strategy for these rules is indicated in the box below. <TABLE style="FONT: 11px Arial" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Number of decks of cards used: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT1>1 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT1>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT1>4 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=3 name=SELECT1>5 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=4 name=SELECT1>6 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=5 name=SELECT1>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Dealer hits or stands on a soft 17: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT2>stands <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT2>hits </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double after a split: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT3>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT3>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double on: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT4>any first two cards <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT4>9-11 only <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT4>10-11 only </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit to: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT5>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT5>3 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=2 name=SELECT5>4 hands </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT6>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT6>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can hit split aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT7>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT7>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player loses only original bet against dealer BJ: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT8>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT8>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Late surrender allowed: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT9>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT9>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Blackjack pays: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT10>3 to 2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT10>6 to 5 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Optimal results: <INPUT size=7 value=1.90744% name=RESULTS6>
Realistic results: <INPUT size=7 value=1.92744% name=RESULTS7>
AS YOU SAID IT CAN BE FROM 2% TO .4 HOUSE ODDS. ITS ALL UP TO THE RULES OF THE HOUSE
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator.html
Enter any set of blackjack rules from the options below. The house edge under proper basic strategy for these rules is indicated in the box below. <TABLE style="FONT: 11px Arial" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Number of decks of cards used: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT1>1 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT1>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT1>4 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=3 name=SELECT1>5 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=4 name=SELECT1>6 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=5 name=SELECT1>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Dealer hits or stands on a soft 17: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT2>stands <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT2>hits </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double after a split: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT3>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT3>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double on: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT4>any first two cards <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT4>9-11 only <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT4>10-11 only </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit to: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT5>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT5>3 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=2 name=SELECT5>4 hands </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT6>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT6>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can hit split aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT7>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT7>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player loses only original bet against dealer BJ: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT8>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT8>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Late surrender allowed: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT9>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT9>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Blackjack pays: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT10>3 to 2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT10>6 to 5 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Optimal results: <INPUT size=7 value=1.90744% name=RESULTS6>
Realistic results: <INPUT size=7 value=1.92744% name=RESULTS7>
AS YOU SAID IT CAN BE FROM 2% TO .4 HOUSE ODDS. ITS ALL UP TO THE RULES OF THE HOUSE
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator.html
Blackjack House Edge Calculator<TABLE style="FONT: 12px Arial" height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>
Enter any set of blackjack rules from the options below. The house edge under proper basic strategy for these rules is indicated in the box below. <TABLE style="FONT: 11px Arial" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Number of decks of cards used: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT1>1 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT1>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT1>4 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=3 name=SELECT1>5 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=4 name=SELECT1>6 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=5 name=SELECT1>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Dealer hits or stands on a soft 17: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT2>stands <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT2>hits </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double after a split: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT3>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT3>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double on: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT4>any first two cards <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT4>9-11 only <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT4>10-11 only </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit to: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT5>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT5>3 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=2 name=SELECT5>4 hands </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT6>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT6>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can hit split aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT7>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT7>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player loses only original bet against dealer BJ: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT8>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT8>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Late surrender allowed: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT9>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT9>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Blackjack pays: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT10>3 to 2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT10>6 to 5 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Optimal results: <INPUT size=7 value=-0.18289% name=RESULTS6>
Realistic results: <INPUT size=7 value=-0.06989% name=RESULTS7>
YOUR RIGHT...BUT ITS HARDER TO COUNT
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Enter any set of blackjack rules from the options below. The house edge under proper basic strategy for these rules is indicated in the box below. <TABLE style="FONT: 11px Arial" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Number of decks of cards used: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT1>1 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT1>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT1>4 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=3 name=SELECT1>5 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=4 name=SELECT1>6 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=5 name=SELECT1>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Dealer hits or stands on a soft 17: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT2>stands <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT2>hits </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double after a split: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT3>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT3>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can double on: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT4>any first two cards <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT4>9-11 only <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=2 name=SELECT4>10-11 only </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit to: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT5>2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT5>3 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=2 name=SELECT5>4 hands </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can resplit aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT6>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT6>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player can hit split aces: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT7>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT7>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Player loses only original bet against dealer BJ: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=0 name=SELECT8>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=1 name=SELECT8>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Late surrender allowed: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT9>no <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT9>yes </TD></TR><TR><TD>Blackjack pays: <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio CHECKED value=0 name=SELECT10>3 to 2 <INPUT onclick=CalculateResult() type=radio value=1 name=SELECT10>6 to 5 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Optimal results: <INPUT size=7 value=-0.18289% name=RESULTS6>
Realistic results: <INPUT size=7 value=-0.06989% name=RESULTS7>
YOUR RIGHT...BUT ITS HARDER TO COUNT
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I'd be willing to bet WVU, DOug, Fishhead, Santo, iceman, journeyman and a handful of others are up.
If we can use posters from other sites who I believe post here from time to time, add Fezzik, Cutter, Custer, PC, Daringly, Dreamer, Steviey, Colincastor, eddiedingle, pythagoris, lawboy, freddie, helmut, goats, garr, computerpicks, alanboston, tracefields, cokin, overlay, etc as likely long term winners. If I put some more time into it I am sure I could add at least 20 more and since I know of at least 5 that dont post online, I am certain there are many.
Sean
If we can use posters from other sites who I believe post here from time to time, add Fezzik, Cutter, Custer, PC, Daringly, Dreamer, Steviey, Colincastor, eddiedingle, pythagoris, lawboy, freddie, helmut, goats, garr, computerpicks, alanboston, tracefields, cokin, overlay, etc as likely long term winners. If I put some more time into it I am sure I could add at least 20 more and since I know of at least 5 that dont post online, I am certain there are many.
Sean
A few thoughts from the other side of the pond.
There are a lot of universal truths about betting, wherever you are in the world, whatever sport you bet on.
Discipline, money management, value, always taking the bets odds/juice. Anyone not doing that has little to no chance.
From what I can tell, the pro's on here mostly ignore money line picks?
A couple of thinking out the box type thoughts for you guys.
1. The books pay most attention to their caps, not their money lines as this how most of the public bets? Not all have software directly linking the two? Correct?
2. Taking the best ML odds from a sample of several books is it possible to bet with very close to zero juice? e.g. betting both sides at the best ML odds would mean zero loss. 100 to win 200 on one team with a particular book, 200 to 100 with another one, then pick the one that is value. This is common with around 1% juice on U.K. soccer betting, is it the same for U.S. sports if you look around? Easier to beat that than 110's, 105's?
There are a lot of universal truths about betting, wherever you are in the world, whatever sport you bet on.
Discipline, money management, value, always taking the bets odds/juice. Anyone not doing that has little to no chance.
From what I can tell, the pro's on here mostly ignore money line picks?
A couple of thinking out the box type thoughts for you guys.
1. The books pay most attention to their caps, not their money lines as this how most of the public bets? Not all have software directly linking the two? Correct?
2. Taking the best ML odds from a sample of several books is it possible to bet with very close to zero juice? e.g. betting both sides at the best ML odds would mean zero loss. 100 to win 200 on one team with a particular book, 200 to 100 with another one, then pick the one that is value. This is common with around 1% juice on U.K. soccer betting, is it the same for U.S. sports if you look around? Easier to beat that than 110's, 105's?
