Can the bettors get any sharper on NBA totals?

D2bets · Dec 11, 2003

N.O. up to 187, even a 187.5. Wow, 5 pt move. I'm thinking 93-91 Hornets, who's with me!!??

TEASERGURU · Dec 11, 2003

Wiseguys keep hammering this Houston under tonight. I think they are playing with a very low total. We will see.

SunDevil · Dec 11, 2003

Not sure who's with you, but a very important person is against you. From today's AZ Republic:

"The Suns fired Johnson on Wednesday with the team off to a disappointing 8-13 start. They promoted assistant Mike D'Antoni, whose contract is good through the end of next season.

D'Antoni, who coached eight seasons in Europe and spent one season as the head coach of the Denver Nuggets, won in Italy with up-tempo, high-scoring basketball, and he promised to shift the Suns into high gear, too.

"We're going to try to put up a lot of points," he said. "We think we have the talent and the physical capabilities to have a nice style of basketball that people will think is fun to watch.

"To me, that's the most important thing. If it's fun for the players, then it's going to be fun for the fans. You get some excitement, and who knows what you can do?"

D'Antoni, 51, will make his debut tonight at American West Arena, where the Suns play host to New Orleans.

"We'd love to score a hundred points a game. That would be a goal," D'Antoni said."

wilheim · Dec 11, 2003

Good info, most likely explains the heavy movement upwards with the Hornet-Suns total.

wil.

D2bets · Dec 11, 2003

Yeah, that is good info and probably does explain the surge. The line is based mostly on the stats and that info is a huge intangible. We'll see if N.O. obliges. This change could make for a lot of funky numbers on Sunds totals for awhile. Me likey.

TEASERGURU · Dec 11, 2003

Sun Devil, great information! It's guys like you who really make this site great. Now I know why that line moved 7 points to the over. Info greatly appreciated!

bartybet · Dec 11, 2003

it's not like marbury walked the ball up court before. with no new players and a new coach saying they would like to put up lots of points sounds good...but i dont think it's going to happen yet. n.o. should be good for 100 against this crap team.if they could'nt hit the basket before today what makes you think this will be any different?

SunDevil · Dec 11, 2003

Yup, just like Orlando's game scores haven't been on the rise since Westhead came on as offensive co-ordinator.

Flame on Bart!

Love and kisses,
Cracker

D2bets · Dec 11, 2003

While this appears to be good info, I'm wondering why the coach would want to tell everybody their new strategy. Isn't there something to be said for the element of surprise? Why tell New Orleans what to prepare for? Maybe they're just trying to get in their head a little.

SunDevil · Dec 11, 2003

D2,

My best guess would be to sell tickets. This team's been drawing like the Expos (OK, maybe a little better) and I'm sure the Colangelo boys are less than thrilled about it.

bartybet · Dec 11, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SunDevil:
Yup, just like Orlando's game scores haven't been on the rise since Westhead came on as offensive co-ordinator.

Flame on Bart!

Love and kisses,
Cracker

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

with the exception of 3 games , where they scored in the 70's, all their games are between 88-100 points. maybe 1 or 2 that were higher...you cracker

SunDevil · Dec 11, 2003

Facts:

Westhead arrived for Dec. 1st game.

Average total pts scored in Orlando games in Dec = 197.1

Average total pts scored in Orlando games in Nov = 184.6

Yup, no difference that I can see.

Time to get back to my beef jerky & watching monster trucks with the rest of the crackers.

Keep the flames a comin'!

Braveheart · Dec 11, 2003

Maybe braveheart is to blame (I should say thank) for the mad movement today

Ticket #2466874
Dec-11 4:35:00 PM ONLINE/-1 Dec-10 1:38:34 PM
NBA Straight Bet
[502] CLEVELAND u181-110

My other plays as posted daily in the nba forum here

http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=718099022&m=49510258&r=49510258#49510258

I found something REALLY INTERESTING tonight

Here are some line histories for tomorrow's games from don best which I am sure others can verify.

12/11 16:27:05 BK CRIS #705 TORONTO 193 OPENER
12/11 18:31:30 BK CRIS #705 TORONTO 195
12/11 18:38:36 BK CRIS #705 TORONTO 196
12/11 18:42:32 BK CRIS #705 TORONTO 197

And here is my ticket from CRIS

Ticket #2481003
Dec-12 4:35:00 PM ONLINE/-1 Dec-11 1:24:32 PM
NBA Straight Bet
[705] TORONTO o192-110

Again this game

12/11 16:27:12 BK CRIS #710 MIAMI 183½ OPENER
12/11 16:27:51 BK CRIS #710 MIAMI 182
12/11 18:51:11 BK CRIS #710 MIAMI 181

And again my ticket

Ticket #2481015
Dec-12 4:35:00 PM ONLINE/-1 Dec-11 1:25:49 PM
NBA Straight Bet
[710] MIAMI u184-110

scpnc · Dec 11, 2003

with the low limits on totals it is hard for books to get crushed, when a line moves form 182 to 187 it probably means the book is about $9,000 upside down. a thousand dollar bet can easily move a total in the nba 1/2 a point, so don't think these books are getting killed by nba totals, in the nfl when a line moves 5 points the books could be 80000 or more upside down, there is just not alot of volume on nba totals nor are the limits high enough for books to get "killed".

bartybet · Dec 11, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SunDevil:
Facts:

Westhead arrived for Dec. 1st game.

Average total pts scored in Orlando games in Dec = 197.1

Average total pts scored in Orlando games in Nov = 184.6

Yup, no difference that I can see.

Time to get back to my beef jerky & watching monster trucks with the rest of the crackers.

Keep the flames a comin'!

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

orlando just was giving up more points in december(each team scored at least 100 against them) they were'nt scoring more themselves...

scpnc · Dec 11, 2003

as far as the coahces comments go, remember the words of scott skiles when he took over chicago, threw out the triangle and said we are going with a new uptempo scheme, yeah i hope you kept betting the over in chicago since he took over, you would be down a good chunk. Every good bettor follows one rule in the nba totals, when a new coach takes over don't bet on that team at all for a few games, if anything change usualy means new plays and schmes and that takes time to execute so when in doubt the under is the way to go with a new coach.

wilheim · Dec 11, 2003

Sun Devil's post provided a clue why a particular total has moved quite a bit. I mean when a game goes from 182 to 187, something must be up. I appreciate the info from a local source near Sun Devil. Plain and simple. Why make a major issue out of guy just trying to help anyone who might be interested in some local info regarding a team already mentioned in the thread.

Thanks, wil.

D2bets · Dec 11, 2003

wil, hell yeah it's great info to know. I think the issue people are making is whether the corresponding line increase is justified and I think there's good arguments both ways. As usual, I'm split down the middle so if it went from 182 to 187 I'll say they score...ohhhh....184.5

wilheim · Dec 11, 2003

Really none of my business, but i'm just curious. If the Raptor total opened 193 - how were you able to play over 192 at CRIS. Same with Heat opener of 183.5 and your play under 184. Like I said, its your business, and you have no obligation to even answer. Just trying to make sense of your post.

thanks, wil.

wilheim · Dec 11, 2003

With a new coach, anything the Suns do tonight is imo. a crap shoot, for betting purposes. I'm am not sure who said it, but the best policy with a new coach is to sit back, and see how the team does for a few games. I'm trying to keep this thread going to see if these early moves hold up over a week or more.

wil.