Can Florida State Repeat?

[Dr.Lou]

Good stuff. Yeah, just see FSU and OU having the best two shots at running the table when really looking at all the different schedules. If FSU doesn't make the playoffs, their season will have to be considered a failure.

OU will have a much tougher overall schedule, but they do get their toughest games at home. That Tenneesee game could be interesting and of course Texas always lingers mentally. And yeah, OU will likely face a better Okie State team than FSU will.

Ohio State and MSU both have numerous tough road games and a potential CCG, so neither project going undefeated. But a 1-loss Big 10 team might steal a spot. Same can be said about a 1-loss Pac 12 team.

Auburn and Alabama each have a decent shot to finish with only 1 loss each. One may even go undefeated, but wouldn't bet on it.

Two undefeated and two 1-loss teams would be a stacked playoff scenario, but it'll more likely be one undefeated, two 1-loss, and one 2-loss team.

All very valid points, but I have to think at least one team goes undefeated, most likely Alabama. They're the only team over the past 5 years who have proven they can "consistently" do that. Ohio St schedule sets up nicely. They should be in it late August. UCLA and USC appear to be on the upswing as both appear to bring back a lot of talent. LSU will be defined by their QB play. AU snuck up on teams and got lucky a couple times last year. I have to give credit though, Malzahn is a good coach and he has a great system in place. They have three tough road games in Kansas St, Georgia, and Alabama. Alabama plays Chatanooga the week before and AU gets Samford. Saban in revenge mode is almost a sure loss. AU gets Georgia towards the end of the year where they should have some chemistry and identity. Their defense by then should be rounding into form. Another team looking for revenge. Two revenge games on the road, have to think they lose one at minimum. Plus they still have to face LSU. Oregon is stacked, question is will they be able to sustain that high flying attack? They get Michigan St week 2 @ home...their toughest test will be on the road against UCLA week 6.

We all know just because there is a playoff system in place for the four best teams, there will be more than 4 teams who can make a claim for deserving a spot. I think Alabama will be in there, because they've proven themselves over the years to be the cream of the crop. I believe Ohio St will also be one of those teams, even if they lose to Michigan St. which is not necessarily a bad loss. They get Michigan at home which helps. The PAC 12 have several good teams that could surprise and steal a spot. I don't think Oregon will be one of them, but i could be wrong and would not be surprised if they were one of the teams. I just think another team from the PAC 12 wins it, thus grabbing one of the spots. That conference is going to be tough. Lastly, FSU. Its so hard to go undefeated, few teams can manage it. If they slip up that loss won't look pretty. Im not sold on Miami. NC St will always be a middle of the road team. Clemson is Clemson. A loss to Clemson doesn't really look like a good loss, especially considering FSU is the defending champs and it being @ home. The Tigers are not an elite program like ND and UF, the only (one of) two games the Noles can "afford" to lose. But, the Noles get UF @ home, so not sure if that constitutes as a '"good" loss, especially if the Gators are struggling. ND has a scary schedule and they could easily be a 2-4 loss team. BUT...having your only loss be ND doesn't appear that bad just going by the name. With all that being said, i could see the Noles in that 4-5 spot. Being the defending Champs may be what just gets them in like Conan pointed out.

Clemson beats noles this year...big game for dabo; strange, but it's gonna happen..

They couldn't get it done last year @ home with Boyd, Watkins, and the rest of their skill talent, what makes you think this year will be different on the road with a new QB?

 

[Conan]

Good point Conan, they do have that at their back to help them especially with the voters. The funny thing is, this is the year all Nole fans were pointing to for a title run. Most, if not all, FSU fans thought Jameis would need a minumum of one year to find his groove and work through some of the growing pains that are commonly associated with freshman QBs. FSU has a lot of the key pieces in place for another run. This team has a lot more depth than it did a year ago, especially at OL and the tailback position. It will interesting to see what Jimbo does. I expect to see a lot of 12 and 22 formations this year with some pony sets. We have 3 healthy TEs now and the backfield looks to be powerful, deep, and explosive. This group of offensive linemen has had a lot of success with stretch plays too. They have some young burners at wideout too.........

What you just said about the Noles whether you know it or not also describes Oregon's offense...
Mariota with a fleet of big/fast running backs capable of scoring from anywhere on the field, 5 returning starters on their OL, promising youth at WR and 3 big and very talented TE's... that's rare. Also, both teams have the probable #1 & #2 Heisman candidates in 2014. See you in Arlington.

 

[Conan]

Here are a couple of his first rushes in the first two minutes of his CFB career including a TD vs. Virginia on his very first touch.

 

[Conan]

and this one...

 

[motowner]

All very valid points, but I have to think at least one team goes undefeated, most likely Alabama. They're the only team over the past 5 years who have proven they can "consistently" do that. Ohio St schedule sets up nicely. They should be in it late August. UCLA and USC appear to be on the upswing as both appear to bring back a lot of talent. LSU will be defined by their QB play. AU snuck up on teams and got lucky a couple times last year. I have to give credit though, Malzahn is a good coach and he has a great system in place. They have three tough road games in Kansas St, Georgia, and Alabama. Alabama plays Chatanooga the week before and AU gets Samford. Saban in revenge mode is almost a sure loss. AU gets Georgia towards the end of the year where they should have some chemistry and identity. Their defense by then should be rounding into form. Another team looking for revenge. Two revenge games on the road, have to think they lose one at minimum. Plus they still have to face LSU. Oregon is stacked, question is will they be able to sustain that high flying attack? They get Michigan St week 2 @ home...their toughest test will be on the road against UCLA week 6.

We all know just because there is a playoff system in place for the four best teams, there will be more than 4 teams who can make a claim for deserving a spot. I think Alabama will be in there, because they've proven themselves over the years to be the cream of the crop. I believe Ohio St will also be one of those teams, even if they lose to Michigan St. which is not necessarily a bad loss. They get Michigan at home which helps. The PAC 12 have several good teams that could surprise and steal a spot. I don't think Oregon will be one of them, but i could be wrong and would not be surprised if they were one of the teams. I just think another team from the PAC 12 wins it, thus grabbing one of the spots. That conference is going to be tough. Lastly, FSU. Its so hard to go undefeated, few teams can manage it. If they slip up that loss won't look pretty. Im not sold on Miami. NC St will always be a middle of the road team. Clemson is Clemson. A loss to Clemson doesn't really look like a good loss, especially considering FSU is the defending champs and it being @ home. The Tigers are not an elite program like ND and UF, the only (one of) two games the Noles can "afford" to lose. But, the Noles get UF @ home, so not sure if that constitutes as a '"good" loss, especially if the Gators are struggling. ND has a scary schedule and they could easily be a 2-4 loss team. BUT...having your only loss be ND doesn't appear that bad just going by the name. With all that being said, i could see the Noles in that 4-5 spot. Being the defending Champs may be what just gets them in like Conan pointed out.

The ACC won't be as good this year and no one in the ACC will beat FSU. That only leaves Okie State, ND, or Florida with the chance of beating FSU. That's why FSU has the best shot of any team to run the table. But if they don't, it will take a down year in CFB with a bunch of top teams with 2 losses for a 1-loss FSU to make the playoffs.

If both Alabama and Auburn finish with only 1 loss (or less) each, they'll both make the playoffs. I'd say that's a 50% chance scenario looking at their schedules. LSU has started to fall off and I wonder if Les Miles will start thinking about the Michigan job when Brady Joke inevitably gets fired. Georgia will have to overwork Gurley and Pruitt has to completely start over with their defense. I have a feeling Tennessee will start rising again as they continue putting together strong classes.

The key to the playoffs will be OU and if they can run the table. If so, FSU and OU would have 2 of the spots and the SEC could very well take the other two.

No one in the Big 10 or Pac 12 will go undefeated, so both will be at risk of getting excluded. Would be nice to see either MSU or UCLA run the table, but both have tough road games and potential CCG's to play. Sure, Ohio State has the best chance of going undefeated between those 3 teams, but I count on them losing at least once at PSU, at MSU, or in the CCG if they make it.

USC will go nowhere with Kessler and Stanford's road schedule is absolutely brutal, each will have at least 2-3 losses.

The playoff scenario definitely favors the ACC and Big 12 because the ACC is FSU and then a steep drop-off, while the Big 12 doesn't have a CCG. Baylor would have to win at Texas and at OU to go undefeated, but that won't happen.

 

[Dr.Lou]

What you just said about the Noles whether you know it or not also describes Oregon's offense...
Mariota with a fleet of big/fast running backs capable of scoring from anywhere on the field, 5 returning starters on their OL, promising youth at WR and 3 big and very talented TE's... that's rare. Also, both teams have the probable #1 & #2 Heisman candidates in 2014. See you in Arlington.

How ironic lol. I've always enjoyed watching the (Chip Kelly) Ducks high octane offense, but last year they seemed to have lost a step. Not sure if losing Kelly was the reason or not, but they didn't look like themselves. Maybe teams are starting to figure out their offense? The Ducks play a unique brand of football and seem to expose inferior teams who lack a combination of talent, depth, and coaching. You can see this in the clips you posted above. If LBs dont have the eye discipline to correctly read that inside read option, the Ducks will eat you up all day. React too fast and they hit you over the top. Too late to react and you're playing catch up. Shoot the wrong gap, there goes 20-30 yards. If the DL doesn't have the combination of strength and speed to move with the pocket instead of shooting up field, OL will open up holes all day. There aren't many teams in the PAC 12 who have what it takes to "stop" the ducks offense. Stanford is one of them, but they lose a ton this year and think their 2 game win streak comes to an end. There are probably a solid 5 teams who i think (last year) have the defense built to stop Oregon: Stanford, Alabama, Michigan State, FSU, and USCe/LSU. Notice none in the PAC 12. And there are probably another 2 teams who have the offense and just enough defense to keep pace with the Ducks and/or beat them: Auburn and OU/UCLA. They get a bad rap for their style of offense it seems which ends up haunting them. One bad game and you start to hear "gimmick offense" and then a loss "one trick pony." Another close win and they seem to lose their appeal. They get their unfair blame for some close games which all teams have. Im not sure how this will factor in with the playoffs, but it just seems they have to overcome a lot of criticism throughout the year whether it be about their offense or someone mouthing off. They have all the tools and weapon this year and PAC 12 sets up nicely for them. It seems as if it is theirs for the taking. If i have to go off how they played towards the end last year, i would pencil in two losses. If they really put it together and win the PAC 12 with one loss, they are a shoe in for the playoffs. That UCLA game will tell us a lot about the Ducks (and UCLA) i think. Really looking forward to that game.

 

[Conan]

How ironic lol. I've always enjoyed watching the (Chip Kelly) Ducks high octane offense, but last year they seemed to have lost a step. Not sure if losing Kelly was the reason or not, but they didn't look like themselves. Maybe teams are starting to figure out their offense? The Ducks play a unique brand of football and seem to expose inferior teams who lack a combination of talent, depth, and coaching. You can see this in the clips you posted above. If LBs dont have the eye discipline to correctly read that inside read option, the Ducks will eat you up all day. React too fast and they hit you over the top. Too late to react and you're playing catch up. Shoot the wrong gap, there goes 20-30 yards. If the DL doesn't have the combination of strength and speed to move with the pocket instead of shooting up field, OL will open up holes all day. There aren't many teams in the PAC 12 who have what it takes to "stop" the ducks offense. Stanford is one of them, but they lose a ton this year and think their 2 game win streak comes to an end. There are probably a solid 5 teams who i think (last year) have the defense built to stop Oregon: Stanford, Alabama, Michigan State, FSU, and USCe/LSU. Notice none in the PAC 12. And there are probably another 2 teams who have the offense and just enough defense to keep pace with the Ducks and/or beat them: Auburn and OU/UCLA. They get a bad rap for their style of offense it seems which ends up haunting them. One bad game and you start to hear "gimmick offense" and then a loss "one trick pony." Another close win and they seem to lose their appeal. They get their unfair blame for some close games which all teams have. Im not sure how this will factor in with the playoffs, but it just seems they have to overcome a lot of criticism throughout the year whether it be about their offense or someone mouthing off. They have all the tools and weapon this year and PAC 12 sets up nicely for them. It seems as if it is theirs for the taking. If i have to go off how they played towards the end last year, i would pencil in two losses. If they really put it together and win the PAC 12 with one loss, they are a shoe in for the playoffs. That UCLA game will tell us a lot about the Ducks (and UCLA) i think. Really looking forward to that game.

The way UCLA sets up, the Ducks could very well end up playing them twice (including a potential CCG @ Eugene.) I think it still sets up well for Oregon to win out in the conference should UCLA happen to rise to the occasion and take one when they play the Ducks at the Rose Bowl in October. Oregon's only real competition in the north is Stanford who happens to have one grueling schedule that includes Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Notre Dame and ASU... all on the road. However the schedule does looks kindly on the Cardinal with a merciful opportunity to make up for all the tough road games when they play USC at Stanford Stadium early in the year. Piece of cake.

 

[Dr.Lou]

That is a brutal stretch. FSU opened up as a 11' point fav over the Pokes, but its been bet up to 17 already. Seems the people have caught on.

 

[GoSooners]

That is a brutal stretch. FSU opened up as a 11' point fav over the Pokes, but its been bet up to 17 already. Seems the people have caught on.

I really can't disagree with this line. It's basically just a number at this point. OSU is kind of a mess right now with key injuries to the best players left on their offensive line. I'm not sure of their return, but considewring the youth there, they'll have to be playing at a very high level to be effective against the FSU defense. Plus Gundy hasn't even named a starter at QB. I suspect it will be Walsh. But it really won't surprise me at all if they have another game of musical chairs with the QB's this year. The defense is young, but something tells me they could be a little underrated this season in DC Spencer's second year. I think they'll have a better idea at what they're doing. Plus they have some nice talent coming in on that side of the ball. Right now if I was playing the game tomorrow, I would be considering the under if I could get a decent number in the high 50's or more.