Can anyone suggest a capping system or disipline?

BigLou+ · Apr 17, 2003

jateeluv,

I disagree about watching games you wager on. I feel it is imperative to watch to see if the game turns out the way you expected it. Did the team turn the ball over as you expected? Did the defense stop the run like you thought they would? Did the team you wagered against make uncharacteristic mistakes like you thought they would in this particular situation?

I feel there a lot of nuances that you can't pick up from the boxscore. Watch the games you wager on. If they lose, hopefully you can find out why they did and correct your mistake.

Big Lou

ATX · Apr 17, 2003

Lou, it depends on how many games that you wager on. I have videotaped every NFL and NCAA game (available) in the past and watched them, but it really led to information overload- it didnt help me at all. But I may wager on 20 or more sides and totals in the NCAA and usually wager on 80% or more of NFL games, and a ton of 2nd halves, so watching all of them isnt really feasible for volume investors.

The lines are based on boxscores (more or less), so I feel that type of information is most relevant. You can pick up additional angles from watching the game, such as "a team that has quit". But these types of nuances comprise only one angle that I will look at out of maybe a dozen for a single game. I do feel that a team's playing style is a very significant nuance when handicapping totals in the NFL. I was kicking myself for not going higher on the PITT/TENN playoff total. Keep in mind when watching the games that some teams are Jekyll and Hyde- they change drastically from week to week. One of the reasons that 11 out of 20 takes so much work.

ATX · Apr 17, 2003

Jateeluv,

check out this thread on page 3: http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=8183022525&m=2333090686

if you increase your wager size every day after a winning day then your needed win% increases for the next day. I typically wait until I accumulate 15% profit before increasing my wager size from 1 to 1.15 etc. I tend to be streaky when I am winning so I chose 15% over waiting for 20%. When I am losing I dont change my wager size unless I accumulate 15% in losses (BR of 85%). A lot of it is touch and go (especially if you have 20% of BR oustanding per day).

BigLou+ · Apr 17, 2003

ATX,

Boxscore are very important. I hope it doesn't look like I was trying to say they aren't. But I do like to watch the games for the reasons stated earlier. I'm definitely not a volume better, as I only handicap the NFL, so I do tend to keep a close eye on the games I'm on. The only games that are recorded and kept for future review are as many Week One contests that I can record between the dish and cable TV and all of the playoff games every year.

You are right on about teams drastically changing from week to week. (The Saints beat Tampa Bay TWICE but lost to Cincinnati). I never wager on a team thinking they will play badly because they had a poor outing last week. That's what the general public loves to do, backing a team that played great last week or fading a team that played poorly.

Big Lou

Guest · Apr 18, 2003

Very good point there Lou. Always a sign of who's a pro and who's not, public never taking into account regression to the mean, while pros always do. I ll even bet a team who's doing badly if i can get a good price on them (a public biased line that is) and i ve capped their team strenght to be above their recent performances. Of course it's a tricky thing and sometimes a team that has not been performing well, IS actually not as good as one thinks it is, but most of the time outcomes of the game are more a matter of chance (the proverbial bounce of the ball, bad days for the players, other chance factors), and the teams regress back to their mean, their actual capabilities that is, and when they are not "hot" you can find some great betting value with them.

ATX · Apr 19, 2003

Big Lou, I wasnt directing anything at you personally. I was just stating that the boxscores provide a strong quantitative aspect for drafting lines, and watching the games to view playing styles, matchups, emotional factors etc provide the qualitative aspects. In the vast majority of regular season games I feel that the quantitative aspect bears more weight than the qualitative (football is a little different b/c of fewer games). In the playoffs the qualitative aspect is more significant as matchups, emotion etc come more into play. A good example is TB over OAK, the oddsmakers relied too heavily on their quantitative and had the wrong team favored, they didnt seem to take matchups very seriously. I guess my point is that in the regular season I dont watch a whole lot of NBA and MLB games- the teams may look like contenders one night and not give a rat's ass in the next b/c the seasons are so long. But in the playoffs I DO watch the games b/c every play counts much more and I typically wager a LOT more per contest, and go a lot heavier on 2nd halves esp when I see something to exploit.

NJ over MIL was a pretty easy example of regression today.

A lot of the time teams whose "mean" is overvalued lack a strong defense (in football, basketball). Matchups problems can also skew the mean (for a specific event) Most of the time these and other factors arent figured accurately into the line, and usually the +ML is worth a LOT more than 2 points to me. An interesting mean that I am watching is KC (and AZ).

[This message was edited by ATX on 04-19-03 at 09:55 PM.]

mhk · Apr 21, 2003

I agree with ATX on not changing bet size until a substantial (+ or - 20%) change in br occurs.. I'm big on betting dogs su, forget the points (see a previous thread re: football ml's). I agree with Big Lou on watching the games.. Know why things happened firsthand, it will only help you down the road, imo..

Stalker-Dude · May 9, 2003

I always find it interesting to come back to this thread about every couple of weeks or so and see what has been added. While we as sports investors have our own ways of what works for us individualy, it is great to see how others in the sports investing arena are dealing with it.

What may work for one person may not work at all for somebody else. But it's those little gems that we can pick-up to help us become sharper and fine tune our own personal style of investing that make it all worth while. To me, those are priceless.

I thank each and everyone of you for your thoughts and contributions to this thread. I commend all those who have opened their soul and shared a part of their life with others so that those who are missing something might have the chance for a better life.

Helping each other is what life is really all about. If you take that to heart, the ball will bounce your way more than not. Karma has a funny way of kicking your ass when you think you have it all figured out. Let's hope we all "Never Arrive"...if you know what I mean. Best of luck in all your investments...Stalker

tsm123 · May 9, 2003

Betting is easy, handicapping is difficult.

You have to analyze, decide to wager or not, then review.

If the outcome followed your reasoning...congratulations! Hopefully, it continues and you gain confidence. If it didn't, you need to review the box score/summary and see where the mistake was made.

Is the time and effort involved in handicapping worth the effort?

Is the investment of our time and effort and the risk of hard earned money worth the possible reward?

I say, "yes".

ATX · May 10, 2003

I totally agree with the 'karmic responsibility' involved with sharing. For me personally, what goes around comes around. I am not lucky, I catch a lot more bad breaks than I get lucky bounces, I KNOW when I win a wager that should have probably gone as a loss. It seems that I've had fewer bad breaks since I've been posting though, fwiw, and I also notice that those who bash dont seem to win for long.

Another thing that I think is important in handicapping is experience. Obviously the more experience and work you put into it the better you get, but I think that CONTINUOUS handicapping is very important. What I mean is when you are suffering through a losing streak I've seen plenty of advice to "take a few days or a week off". I dont think this helps at all. You take yourself out of the arena, you miss out on subtle nuances and team tendencies. If your BR is taking a hit, it may be a good idea to limit exposure, but if you are trying to learn and gain experience in handicapping I dont think time off is the best solution.

If I start feeling worn out, which losing streaks can help cause, and I'm not 'seeing clearly', I may decrease wager size substantially or not actually wager at all. But I ALWAYS handicap the games for each day. I need to because I get down on a ton of games. If something comes up and I physically cant handicap, I make sure that I dont hear the outcomes of games on radio/TV before I run the data myself and come up with my own conclusions. I remember times when I took a day off and looked at the sports section the next day and thought to myself "Cleveland won SU!!, I would have been on that ML huge!!" This builds false confidence, anyone can handicap from the next day's box scores. I keep every single sports section every day, if I have to go on a long car ride I've been know to grab a couple random sports pages from the past and handicap the day's events- kind of like doing a crossword puzzle.

Stalker-Dude · May 16, 2003

ATX you really shared some good things. I agree with you on the "long car ride crossword puzzle thing". Been there....Done that.

bblight · May 26, 2003

I just re-read this thread and and I see a lot of good information and advice, but I still don't see anyone mentioning my #1 bankroll killer which is GREED!!!!
All of the disciplines, money management skills, great handicapping abilities and line-hunting expertise are great - but the big bankroll killer for me has been GREED!
Just about every dumb trick I've pulled on myself has been due to greed: I had a bad day and I want to catch up, so I'll make this very large bet to catch up (I won't worry about if I lose!); There aren't a lot of good choices on today's card, so I'll pick a few of those borderline teams for the action (I won't worry about them losing); I've been winning lately, which means I'm infallible, so I'll pick a few extra teams - what the hell - I can't lose (and I won't worry about the possiblity of losing); etc., etc..
Every time I look at my past mistakes, greed is sitting there making ugly faces at me. Greed is the monkey on my back that I have to be on constant guard against - because the second I ignore greed's ugly little face, it'll come back to wreck my day as sure as God makes little green apples!
The good thing about this is that the smart handicapper can learn from his mistakes and not repeat them - or at least not repeat them very often.
Yup! Greed is the biggest bankroll killer there is - it's created more losers by a factor of millions, than any other reason there is, so when you're making that bankroll discipline list, make sure you list GREED at the top, in caps, so you'll remember that greed will do you in faster than a room full of touts with ten billion star locks!

Good luck!

[This message was edited by bblight on May 26, 2003 at 11:44 AM.]

tsm123 · May 26, 2003

greed: An excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth.

I hate to say this, but I think it's true...
greed is a function of poor handicapping.

Improve your handicapping to the point where you are able to select ONLY SOLID COVERS and you will no longer be bothered by greed.

If you do not/cannot develop the ability to select ONLY SOLID COVERS, then you have no business being greedy and you've now compounded your problem...poor handicapping and poor money management.

Sorry if this pissed anyone off, but that's my honest opinion.

OgieOgelthorpe · May 29, 2003

Wow. I haven't read the entire thread (yet) but the last two posts, I found myself nodding.

Just last week I was up 13.00 with my guy and because of just what you guys have said, I ended up going to the hip.

Now I'm on a losing streak that I can't seem to break. Thanks for this thread and Im about to dive into it.

ATX · May 30, 2003

Ogie, if you dont have much experience in baseball you might be interested in the two rules that I set in stone for my first two years after I got my ass handed to me my first couple of months in bases. It was amazing how fast things turned around, and I still adhere to them the vast majority of the time.

1. do not wager on ANY favorite over -140. I know that matchups differ and at times warrant the chalk, but it takes experience to recognize a 70% chance of winning. Simply put, a MLB team doesnt win 70% of its games. Convert the price into a fraction, this shows the percentage that the given team must win in THIS situation.

2. flat bet- on any favorite lay the same amount that you would on a dog. this is another way of reducing plays on favorites since you wont make as much on faves as a dog play. flat betting also keeps you from putting large chunks of money on "locks" and keeps you from "chasing".

Baseball, for me, is different than any other sport. In the NBA and NFL I devote most of my time in determining who will WIN the game, the cover takes care of itself the vast majority of the time. In baseball I couldnt care less who wins each game. I devote my time in bases in handicapping the PRICE. I take any game in which I assume the PRICE is off. For example, in today's HOU game I had STLOU at -150, in the NYM game I had PHI at -160. Did I think HOU and NYM would win? NO, but the price offered on the dogs (HOU,NYM) was worth the investment, and in this case paid off. If you try to determine who will win each game you usually get into trouble. Who will San Diego beat? They SHOULD lose the rest of their games this year, based on thier statistics (I think they are playing DET soon, on a side note), but they WONT, Seattle will NEVER lose etc, etc, etc. I hope this makes sense. My point is that if you play enough games where you find the price to be just 15 cents or so off what it should be, then you will profit greatly. And dont even bother with a W/L record, it's ALL about %BR gained (for any sport). Check out the numbers in my bases thread for examples of what I am talking about. Alternate Runlines are getting sharper, but they still offer the most value in a lot of situations.

SixthSense · May 30, 2003

Outstanding advice ATX!

I, too, subscribe to the flat betting - betting to win less on the favorites and betting to win more on the dogs.

And the advice on the price in baseball is correct too. I look for a 20% ROI in pricing baseball.

Nice job ATX!

couch_potatoes · May 31, 2003

Here is a professional's math formula for determining the maximum that you can risk on one game:

A= % of wins (expressed as a decimal) --> This is your EXPECTED overall win rate.

B = Average profit per game won

C = Average loss per game lost

D = Size of your bankroll today

E = Percentage of bankroll to risk on 1 game

For example, making a modest presumption that you can win 55% to 60% of the time, A = 0.55

Assuming you make $10 profit for every $11 wagered when you win, B = $10

Again, assuming you lose the amount wagered ($11) whenever your team loses, C = $11

Say your bankroll is $500. D = $500

Here is the math:

E = A - [(1-A)/(B/C)] <----- This is the formula

1-A = (1 - 0.55) = 0.45
B/C = ($10/$11) = 0.91

E = 0.55 - (0.45 / 0.91)
E= 0.55 - 0.4945, or 0.05, or 5%

If D = $500, the amount to risk = 5% x $500 = $25

Just remember, if you can win 55% of the time, you will make money over the long run. However, a string of 6 or 7 losses from time to time is inevitable. But so are streaks of 6 or 7 winners in a row.

2006 · May 31, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> E = A - [(1-A)/(B/C)] <----- This is the formula
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>I don't see the logic behind it but it should make for some interesting conversation.

ATX · Jun 1, 2003

similar to a formula I'm trying to develop to minimize streaks. I hate the ups and downs more than anything. It affects me psychologically, and other than money management and house limits that is the ONLY stumbling block.

What I've realized in this pursuit: DUE FACTORS

They are configured into lines every day, and that is why if you have more information than the oddsmaker on a specific team/teams for a given event one has a supreme edge.

I LMFAO at some people who say due factors aren't relative. DUE FACTORS are relavant b/c if a human being doesn't produce then they are replaced. Sporting events arent cards or dice where an event is ENTIRELY INDEPENDENT. NOTHING in a sporting event is ENTIRELY independent. He who has the best DUE FACTORS gets hired by the LVSC, the pure numbers are avail to ANYONE. The 11/10 is what beats the public- in addition to the books having an almost unlimited bankroll (by comparison), and the fact that the public has no idea what the NUMBER SHOULD be. In the NBA the number is off by an avg. of 7-8 points. In MLB even so called "handicappers" dont have a clue what the number should be, they just try to pick teams that 'wont' lose.
That formula has some merit, but the problem is that this market is so subject to change. As every day goes by, I am more compelled to adhere to my original belief- "YOU EITHER HAVE "IT" OR YOU DON'T!!"

drunk as a skunk.

bblight · Jun 1, 2003

Hmmmm!
ATX, I kinda sorta agree; if you add in the cumulative affect of experience.
If you haven't figured it out after you've gone through the learning curve, then ain't got it!

Good luck!