C2 Method / Arena Football Picks Week 7

MathProf · Mar 9, 2005

System Backtest

Guys, I wish you good luck in your backtest endeavors.

I assume that your system is league-wide rather than team specific;
if that is so, I suggest that when you have your league-wide results
you break down each team's performance; I suspect that you will
find substantial differences which are surely worth treating as
an additional variable.

SERocks · Mar 9, 2005

The reason the system does not work in week 1, is it has absolutely no data to work from. No games are played in week 0. For week 2, it has data, but not on all teams...so really questionable whether it would work or not. Week 3 it has at least 2 games on most teams and only 1 game on a couple teams. Since it uses averaged results over the course of the calculations, it makes sense to me that WK 4 would be the earliest the method would start to show some consistent results...and in fact, I would not be surprised if it wouldn't be better to wait till WK 5 or 6 even.

-SERocks

Mistermj · Mar 12, 2005

San Jose (weak pick) :103631605

New York (strong)
Columbia (strong)
Tampa Bay (strong)
Orlando (weak)
Chicago (weak)
Dallas (weak)
Colorado (strong)

SERocks · Mar 14, 2005

Week 7 Results:

Cumulative Results are WK 4 through 7, of which only WK 6 and 7 were posted real time, WK 7 here and week 6 and 7 at our site.

ATS not doing so well, but SU this seems to be doing very well. Now how best to make use of the information.

-SERocks

AFLGuru · Mar 14, 2005

That's okay though... you're on the right track. When the spread is less than a TD, picking the winner is half the battle. Colorado got backdoored unless you got them early and Chicago was literally an inch away... for 4 plays... anyway, don't change what you've got. It's all looking good thus far. Keeping getting the WINNERS right... if you get the winners right, you'll do quite well in the long run ATS with enough tweaking. You'll figure it out.

--AFLGuru