C2 Method / Arena Football Picks Week 7

[Mistermj]

New here, but I like all the discussion I'm seeing on Arena ball.

I will be sharing weekly Arena picks here from a method myself and a friend are working on. Actually he is doing most of the work on this and I am just here to share the picks and participate in discussion here.

The C2 method comes from a succesful NFL formula we ran last year. It is completely stat based. We have adapted it to Arena football and will track the results here. Last week it went 5-3 and the picks are documented on my homepage site in my profile. We will continue the experiment and post picks here too, going forward.

To wager this method, we use a concept called Grinding. Wagering on all the picks equally, within proper money management limits of 2-5% of your bankroll per wager. We believe this is the only way to wager and come out ahead over time.

Assuming the C2 method has a statistical advantage, we try to gain a few units each week, and adjust our wagers as our bankroll changes. You don't try for big home runs with this method, but you don't get blown out either.

Slow and steady compounding wins the race.(If the method has a statistical advantage over 52.4% ! )

Thanks! and Good luck.

I will post the picks on Tuesday afternoons.

We have a lot to learn about line movement ect. any help in that area would be appreciated. We are completely new to this...and made our first wagers last week in Arena ball.

 

[Mistermj]

Could someone advise me what time Pinnacle releases the AFL lines today? Is it a set time...or do they do it when they feel like it or what?

It appears from postings here to be around 1 pm EST?....but I'm not sure.

 

[TOMMYB]

Welcome To The Forum . I'm New Here Too . If You Read My Posts You Will See Where I'm Coming From. Just Sharing And Hoping To Help Out Where I Can , As This Is What I Believe These Forums Are For.


Good Luck And I'll Be Looking For Your Picks .

 

[TOMMYB]

Somewher Between 12 And 1 Est Is The Usual Lately , Today.

 

[Mistermj]

Thanks Tommy B.

 

[Mistermj]

One more question.

Does anyone know where I can find historical stats for AFL?

 

[AFLGuru]

Welcome C2!

I'll warn you the same thing I've warned everyone else of claiming to bring these NFL systems to the AFL. It's not trying to discourage you, but it's a warning. I've yet to see a true NFL system work in the AFL. If you don't have some AFL knowledge paired with instinct of the game, it's not going to work very well. 5-3 in a given week is all fine and good, but if it's a system that you're going to test, I suggest testing it over a season before coming here and posting. I made it a year with my "system" though I don't like referring to it as such because about a third of the percentage of my bets are intuition based, and the rest just being comparing stats you might not find in your average box score. I put in a lot of hours a week to this, particularly during games, keeping some pretty tedious stats on top of updates here on Rx. So I'm not going to try to discourage you, but we've seen it with Ace Ace and several others that NFL systems MAY work, but you'd better make sure first. Tommy's got a good grasp of what's going on, and I DO suggest you take a look at his system. But even he'll probably tell you that it's a giant work in progress to get it right. Fortunately for me, I haven't had to alter a whole hell of a lot... did all of the altering last season. I learn something new with every game I watch, but I haven't had to massively adjust anything yet.

Just the warning to be careful before you get your feet to involved in this. But again, if you keep good money management, anything over 52.5 should be good enough, and a lot of systems are good enough to at least come up with that. Just don't play every game like Riggs does... I think it's pretty proven that that WON'T work.

 

[MathProf]

NFL systems

Good Luck C2

I agree with Guru's caution; all historical trends are based on the
rules of contest, coaching, team's "nature" of play and -most
importantly, the linemakers ability or inability to post an accurate line.

My brief experience with AFL indicates the latter.

But we're all interested in working together and any input will be
welcome and appreciated.

 

[Mistermj]

Hi AFL guru.

I appreciate the thoughts. Maybe I should have made it more clear. We don't really recommend anyone wager this system yet either. It is unproven and remains to be seen if a NFL system will transfer to AFL. Although following my wagering instuctions will keep people out of too much trouble. But yes....don't go crazy wagering on it. It is unproven.

As for your advice on handicapping. We think there are good reasons why this particular system will transfer to the AFL. Thats what this is...an experiment to find that out.

We also believe in stat based systems for our handicapping. No knowledge of the game is necessary according to our theory and past history. In fact...most amateur handicapping tends to play to the media manipulation and is more detrimental than it helps. Just go with what the stats tell you. Stats don't lie....if done properly.

We have also noticed that injuries and other news events tend to get too much attention. People over compensate for an injury and the linesmakers take advantage of you. We have been far better off just listening to what the stats tell us and ignoring the rest. Makes it all clean and easy.

Now the question is...do we have a system for the AFL or not? We hope to find out.

Thanks for stopping by.

 

[AFLGuru]

Good call MJ. If you ever need a hand with some of this stuff to give you a grasp on the meaningful stats vs. the non-meaningful stats (like time of possession... dumbest stat in the AFL... just trust me on that), don't be afraid to ask.

--AFLGuru

 

[Mistermj]

Here are the picks for week 7. I may have to update them once I get verification of the stats I need from another site that has not yet updated.

San Jose (weak pick)
New York (strong)
Columbia (strong)
Tampa Bay (strong)
Orlando (weak)
Chicago (weak)
Dallas (weak)
Colorado (strong)

Will post more once I have some lines and have more to say. In the meantime, the early stats I used say the above teams should be the teams to bet on.

We are still working out how to wager these and how to document the lines to use.This is more complicated than NFL in that respect.

 

[Mistermj]

I want to document these Pinnacle lines in case we use them. Looks like they have settled out fairly well now at 1:00pm CST

This might be a good idea for a thread to document the line changes through the week for study and analysis.

Lines effective: 3/8/2005 11:01:49 AM - PST
Rotation Number
Arena Football Fri 3/11
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Fri 3/11 451 Phi Soul +11 -105 OVER 111 -102
07:30 PM 452 San Jose Sabercats -11 -105 UNDER 111 -108

Arena Football Sat 3/12
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sat 3/12 453 Georgia Force +5 -105 OVER 102 -107
04:00 PM 454 New York Dragons -5 -105 UNDER 102 -103
Sat 3/12 455 Las Vegas Gladiators -5 -105 OVER 90 -105
04:00 PM 456 Cob Destroyers +5 -105 UNDER 90 -105
Sat 3/12 457 Colorado Crush -8.5 -105 OVER 93 -105
05:30 PM 458 Nashville Kats +8.5 -105 UNDER 93 -105

Arena Football Sun 3/13
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sun 3/13 459 Chicago Rush -7.5 -105 OVER 105 -105
09:00 AM 460 Grand Rapids Rampage +7.5 -105 UNDER 105 -105
Sun 3/13 461 Arizona Rattlers +8.5 -105 OVER 97 -105
09:00 AM 462 Tampa Bay Storm -8.5 -105 UNDER 97 -105
Sun 3/13 463 Orlando Predators +3 -105 OVER 99.5 -105
12:00 PM 464 No Voodoo -3 -105 UNDER 99.5 -105
Sun 3/13 465 Dallas Desperados -6.5 -105 OVER 110 -105
01:00 PM 466 Aus Wranglers +6.5 -105 UNDER 110 -105

 

[AFLGuru]

MJ: You'll get one more spike of bets from the working man between about 4:00 and 8:00 EST due to people coming home and checking this stuff out from work. The movement won't be as drastic, but likely add another point to point and a half on those lines that a bunch of us agree with on here.

 

[Mistermj]

Thanks AFL...big learning curve here. It seems there are a lot of people willing to help out here.

So ...if playing dogs, is later tonight a good time to lock in? ... with the public I presume betting on favorites?

In general...are favorites best early and dogs best late as usual?...or is this a different animal?

 

[AFLGuru]

Different animal. I'll give you a short answer now, and I better answer with examples when I get back on Friday night. What I offer you is a theory on what happens... I don't want to accuse anyone of anything, but it's a theory.

It's not necessarily dogs or favorites. There have been a few teams that I have been on most of the year and a few teams I've been fading most of the year. There are teams I talk up and talk down. You'll have to go back and read all of those. But the perfect example was the San Jose game this week. I spoke of in last week's thread San Jose being legit and Philly simply sucking. I wasn't ready to lay over a TD in the game, but people more or less assumed I was going to. Even 5 $100 bets will spawn line movement very quickly. Same with Tampa and Arizona. I've been talking up Tampa and talking down Arizona... thus the line moved.

After I post, a lot of the lines will move based off of what I bet, especially if they are large plays. I'm not trying to show ego here, because I could honestly care less, but I have a large following because I was the first guy to step up and actually post picks... When I came out of the blocks 4-0 with my first 4 picks, that more or less gave me a solid foundation of followers. Again, this isn't my main concern, but especially on my over/unders, where I've had a great run this year, lines can and will move a dozen points.

Also a good example would be the Orlando/Chicago game in week... 4 I believe... I'd have to check on the week. But Orlando opened up +2. I pounded them with 5 units. The line steadly rose throughout the week and got as high as 7. Orlando came down with some injuries and Chicago got a little healthier. That being said, I jumped on Chicago. The line closed Orlando +2, exactly where it opened.

So to be honest with you, an extent of line movement is right on my thread. As I go on, I've noticed I've started picking up some faders on the big line movements... And if you did that this week, you did quite well. 2-1 on sides. People will also look at my totals record and probably start fading away too... Honestly, they're probably right that my totals record will level back at some point.

Anyway, enough about me. That's my basic theory on these line movements. If you're going against me, the best thing you can do is to wait until either late Wednesday or early Thursday... or wait until the first line movement back the other direction. Because after a line gets so high, people will middle, bringing the line back to a bettable number for me as well. Hope this helps. Again, I'll give you a better, more specific answer later in the week when I can give you a lot of stats to back it up.

--AFLGuru

 

[scottw]

Actually, CHI closed -3 that game, a 10 point swing from the +7 they were getting (Don Best closing number is where I got the -3 info). News got out that ORL would sit both Fleming and McGriff, and also that Philyaw would play. 10 point swing favoring CHI; guess who won? Right, ORL.

Line moves in AFL are nothing like NFL. Lines go crazy the first hour after Pinny posts them. Then, if Olympic posts their numbers 24 hours later, Pinny reacts and moves that way. If Pinny has NY -3, and OLY comes out NY -7, two minutes after OLY posts theirs Pinny will move to NY -5.5 or -6.

You have to be ready when Pinny posts their numbers. If you follow the league for a while you will be able to predict the moves. I wasn't looking to play SJ or GA this week at all. But when SJ opened -7 and GA +8, I KNEW that SJ would go up and GA would go down. So if I decide I don't like my plays I can middle off later. You honestly have to sit down Monday night or Tuesday morning and put a small range on where you think it will open, then jump when the number is off. I had TB -9 or so. It opened -5. I bet 2 units TB. I thought CHI 7. It was 9, so I grabbed GR. Things like that. It just takes a while of learning the league and watching the numbers, and getting a feel for what lines will go where right off the bat. I thought SJ -9/10 and NY -4/5, so when I saw the -7 SJ and +8 GA I jumped on them. The one that surprised me was COL. I thought the linesmaker was right at 9 or so. It dropped to 6.5. I got COL -7 as it went back up. Now it's back at -8.5. I did not think it would have ever dropped but it did. Did I know it would go back up? No. But I knew 6.5/7 seemed low to me. Get an idea in your head of a small range of where you think it should be, and when you get an opener that is off your number, jump on it. Usually you will be correct and the line will move towards your original range if you have done your homework.

 

[Mistermj]

Backtest of C2 method

Thanks Math Prof, AFL Guru and Scott W for your comments.

I think you may find this interesting. My partner has done a back test and posted on our forum. I'll repost the info here. Looks very promising! But time will tell.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Repost copy and paste:
Hi all,

Just got done doing some backtesting on the C2 method using the AFL stats for the year. The method really does not work until there are a couple games in and the stats start to take shape. WK 4 is when the results started to show some promise. Below are summaries of the three weeks. A few things can be gathered from these results. First, I think the C2 method translates to the AFL. I would prefer to see a lot more history on it, and I can do the calculations now for 2003 and 2002 (and even before) as I found the stats, but each year will take between 10 and 15 hours to complete and I have not gotten that done yet. In due course.

A couple things to note. It is likely better, if you are betting all games, to bet each game SU as a ML game. What you give up in negative ML is probably more than made up for in juiced Dog ML plays and additional wins. SU wins are 18-6, with Dog plays being 8-2. Away Dogs have performed especially well, and Home Favs are the weakest category.

Over the coming weeks we shall have an even better picture of how this is working out, but for now, this looks good to me.

Good Luck with WK 7!

-SERocks

 

[Roxygurl]

i believe numbers dont lie also. i have a friend whos a computer programmer for the dept of defense and has put systems together for the nba as well as college basketball. im not smart enough to understand the numbers and all but i do know this guy wins and is clueless about the nba and its players. he wont even watch the games yet he is into stats and numbers and it works for him. so im going to check your progress because i think your going the right way. best of luck to you and your partner sir. ~RG

 

[AFLGuru]

Looks like you might be onto something here guys. I've gotta look a bit closer at the information at hand, which I'll do at some point this weekend when I get back to campus. But just from outward appearance, if we can find some reasons for the losses over time and why the system didn't work in weeks 1-3, we really might have something. Checking over '02 and '03 is a tedious job, but doing it might really provide some GREAT information. Let me know how this turns out. If it's possible to find the "good breaks" vs. the "bad breaks," one would assume that the amount of times would even out. But at least to me this year, I count the real good breaks at 2 and the real bad breaks at 4, especially that Vegas game this past week, and the New York over in week 2 when I need 3 points to get to the over... New York scored a TD with like 45 seconds left and it got called back for holding... I'm one to not think much of these, but the Vegas game especially really pissed me off for how much they outplayed them.

But regardless, them's the breaks. Keep up the good work. This is a very interesting proposition you've got here that appears to take far more things into consideration than I once figured. As always, if you would like a hand, don't be afraid to ask. Winning is winning, no matter who's providing the info.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[MathProf]

Good and Bad Breaks

A successful handicapper will always have more bad breaks than
a losing handicapper for the simple reason that the loser's games
are more frequently distant from the line.

Conversely, "good" breaks are needed less frequently if your
team is killing the spread often. The losing handicapper is
always praying for a miracle (good break).