That’s the word I was looking for!
Any thoughts on the late games?
Minny opened -160 now -145 ??? Who’s betting Nashville in a situation like this? Dumba out, and Brodin back but rusty? Combined with a rested Rinne?? Is that the argument for Nashville here? I’ll take the Wild, just debating on money line, puck line or regulation. And haven’t decided units yet either.
Hate betting Dallas, but, gladly in this situation as mentioned a couple posts ago.
Edmonton concerns me a bit. Well, betting against the Bhawks this time of year. But, what the hell.
Yeah I understand your reservations, but I'm not overthinking these. There was no justifiable reason for backing Detroit today either. Or Colorado yesterday. Or Arizona the day before haha. Point is, there's enough parity in the league, that if one team is a little rusty it seems to matter. As a stats guy I'll tell you that there are still big sample size problems here haha, but in the meantime my bankroll is loving it.
But to answer your questions: Lots of people still really like Nashville, and think that Rinne is good (he's not). I'd feel worse about fading the Preds if Saaros was in net. Dallas and TB are both middling teams - so not thrilled about laying juice with Dallas but I will, given the situation. Chicago not the team they appear to be imo, and aren't as good as their record, regardless of today's outcome. I see a first round exit for them this year. Forward depth a real issue.
Updated
| 1st Game | Opponent | Unit Profit | ||||
| Team and Bye Week | Back | Opponent | Result | Closing Line | /Loss | |
| New York Islanders: Jan. 1-5 | 06-Jan | @Colorado | OTL 2-1 | +138 | 138 | |
| Ottawa Senators: Jan. 2-6 | 07-Jan | Washington | L 1-0 | -147 | 100 | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins: Jan. 1-7 | 08-Jan | Tampa Bay | W 6-2 | +222 | -100 | |
| Colorado Avalanche: Jan. 7-11 | 12-Jan | Anaheim | L 4-1 | -155 | 100 | |
| Arizona Coyotes: Jan. 8-12 | 13-Jan | Winnipeg | W 4-3 | -147 | -147 | |
| New York Rangers: Jan. 8-12 | 13-Jan | Toronto | L 4-2 | Leafs also off bye | ||
| Toronto Maple Leafs: Jan. 8-12 | 13-Jan | @Rangers | W 4-2 | Rangers also off bye | ||
| Philadelphia Flyers: Jan. 16-20 | 21-Jan | New Jersey | L 4-1 | +192 | 192 | |
| Florida Panthers: Feb. 4-8 | 09-Feb | LA Kings | L 6-3 | +102 | 102 | |
| Edmonton Oilers: Feb. 6-10 | 11-Feb | Chicago | L 5-1 | +123 | 123 | |
| New Jersey Devils: Feb. 7-11 | 12-Feb | San Jose | L 4-1 | -123 | 100 | |
| Calgary Flames: Feb. 8-12 | 13-Feb | Arizona | L 5-0 | +185 | 185 | |
| LA Kings: Feb. 10-14 | 16-Feb | Arizona | L 5-3 | extra day off | +220 | 220 |
| Carolina Hurricanes: Feb. 12-16 | 17-Feb | Colorado | OTL 2-1 | +230 | 230 | |
| Chicago Blackhawks: Feb. 13-17 | 18-Feb | Edmonton | L 3-1 | +120 | 120 | |
| Montreal Canadiens: Feb. 13-17 | 18-Feb | Winnipeg | L 3-1 | +160 | 160 | |
| Nashville Predators: Feb. 13-17 | 18-Feb | @Minnesota | L 5-2 | -155 | 100 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning: Feb. 12-16 | 18-Feb | @Dallas | OTL 4-3 | extra day off | -125 | 100 |
| Washington Capitals: Feb. 12-16 | 18-Feb | @Detroit | OTL 3-2 | extra day off | +160 | 160 |
| Boston Bruins: Feb. 13-17 | 19-Feb | @San Jose | extra day off | |||
| Dallas Stars: Feb. 19-23 | 24-Feb | Arizona | ||||
| Buffalo Sabres: Feb. 20-24 | 25-Feb | @Colorado | ||||
| Columbus Blue Jackets: Feb. 20-24 | 25-Feb | Islanders | ||||
| San Jose Sharks: Feb. 20-24 | 25-Feb | @Vancouver | Canucks also off bye | |||
| Vancouver Canucks: Feb. 20-24 | 25-Feb | San Jose | Sharks also off bye | |||
| St. Louis Blues: Feb. 21-25 | 26-Feb | @Chicago | ||||
| Minnesota Wild: Feb. 22-26 | 27-Feb | LA Kings | ||||
| Detroit Red Wings: Feb. 22-26 | 28-Feb | @Vancouver | extra day off | |||
| Winnipeg Jets: Feb. 22-26 | 28-Feb | Minnesota | extra day off | |||
| Anaheim Ducks: Feb. 26 - March 2 | 03-Mar | Toronto | ||||
| Total | 3-12-4 | 1883 |
Feddz, thanks again for bringing this to our attention. It's certainly been profitable for those of us with the balls (or sheep mentality) to bet these heavy dogs.
I'd like to add some information to this thread without appearing as though I'm hijacking.
Notes on Sunday's (Bruins / Sharks) matchup:
This is the 5th time the matchup has included the opponent going INTO the bye week.
Previous occurances were Col (1/6) ... LA (2/9) ... Chi (2/11) ... Dal (2/18)
This is the 6th time the matchup has featured the opponent on the back end of B2B games.
Previous occurances were TB (1/8) @ Pit ..... NJ (1/21) @ Phi ..... Chi (2/11) @ Edm ..... SJ (2/12) @ NJ ..... Col (2/17) @ Car
Note: Chicago on 2/11 both of these similarities with Sunday's Sharks
(Good job schedule makers!)
Other observations - here's where it gets interesting:
The "rested" team has outshot the "opponent" 577-499.
YET,
The opponent has outscored the rested team 67-31 (61-31 if we exclude all empty netters).
The save % of the rested goalies is .878 .... personally, I believe this is understandable due to the argument that the time off disrupts a goalie's timing.
BUT,
The save % of the "opponent" goalies is .946 !!!!! .... I have yet to postulate a reasonable explanation for this. Until I do, I will assume this is an anomaly that is "due for regression". But, .946 over 577 shots is becoming a fair sample size.
I understand there are metrics related to shot quality, and I wish I had access to such stats, but, I don't. And, from the games I've watched over the last 2 days especially, I don't think shot quality plays much of a part in understanding this.
Consider some of these notable performances by "opponent" goalies facing rested clubs:
Pickard .972 on 36 shots (NYI)
Holtby 1.000 on 30 shots (Ott)
Gibson .971 on 34 shots (Col)
Kinkaid .972 on 36 shots (Phi)
Budaj .923 on 39 shots (Fla)
Darling .968 on 31 shots (Edm)
Jones .955 on 22 shots (NJ)
M.Smith 1.000 on 36 shots (Cal)
M.Smith .932 on 44 shots (LA)
Pickard .966 on 29 shots (Car)
Talbot .974 on 39 shots (Chi)
Hellebuyck .950 on 20 shots (Mon)
Dubnyk .949 on 39 shots (Nas)
Lehtonen .919 on 37 shots (TB)
Mrazak .944 on 36 shots (Was)
There's only 2 performances excluded from this list!! These guys have been incredible! And most of them are far from top 10 goaltenders!
Anybody have an explanation for this? I'm baffled.
Anyways, I think I'm going to lay off of the Sharks today. The more I think about it, the more I like Boston. But, I really like the over more than anything else. Gonna get some of that juicy 5 before it moves to 5.5 later today.
I'd like to add some information to this thread without appearing as though I'm hijacking.
Notes on Sunday's (Bruins / Sharks) matchup:
This is the 5th time the matchup has included the opponent going INTO the bye week.
Previous occurances were Col (1/6) ... LA (2/9) ... Chi (2/11) ... Dal (2/18)
This is the 6th time the matchup has featured the opponent on the back end of B2B games.
Previous occurances were TB (1/8) @ Pit ..... NJ (1/21) @ Phi ..... Chi (2/11) @ Edm ..... SJ (2/12) @ NJ ..... Col (2/17) @ Car
Note: Chicago on 2/11 both of these similarities with Sunday's Sharks
(Good job schedule makers!)
Other observations - here's where it gets interesting:
The "rested" team has outshot the "opponent" 577-499.
YET,
The opponent has outscored the rested team 67-31 (61-31 if we exclude all empty netters).
The save % of the rested goalies is .878 .... personally, I believe this is understandable due to the argument that the time off disrupts a goalie's timing.
BUT,
The save % of the "opponent" goalies is .946 !!!!! .... I have yet to postulate a reasonable explanation for this. Until I do, I will assume this is an anomaly that is "due for regression". But, .946 over 577 shots is becoming a fair sample size.
I understand there are metrics related to shot quality, and I wish I had access to such stats, but, I don't. And, from the games I've watched over the last 2 days especially, I don't think shot quality plays much of a part in understanding this.
Consider some of these notable performances by "opponent" goalies facing rested clubs:
Pickard .972 on 36 shots (NYI)
Holtby 1.000 on 30 shots (Ott)
Gibson .971 on 34 shots (Col)
Kinkaid .972 on 36 shots (Phi)
Budaj .923 on 39 shots (Fla)
Darling .968 on 31 shots (Edm)
Jones .955 on 22 shots (NJ)
M.Smith 1.000 on 36 shots (Cal)
M.Smith .932 on 44 shots (LA)
Pickard .966 on 29 shots (Car)
Talbot .974 on 39 shots (Chi)
Hellebuyck .950 on 20 shots (Mon)
Dubnyk .949 on 39 shots (Nas)
Lehtonen .919 on 37 shots (TB)
Mrazak .944 on 36 shots (Was)
There's only 2 performances excluded from this list!! These guys have been incredible! And most of them are far from top 10 goaltenders!
Anybody have an explanation for this? I'm baffled.
Anyways, I think I'm going to lay off of the Sharks today. The more I think about it, the more I like Boston. But, I really like the over more than anything else. Gonna get some of that juicy 5 before it moves to 5.5 later today.
This is damn near as good as Feddz original post. Well done. First of all, I'm not sold in any way shape or form that sog is a category worth following and cooralating it to get a true read on a game. Teams falling behind in a game will out shoot their opponents 80% or more on a consistent basis. It's when you find a team win, and outshoot their opponent is when you know you really have a team operating on all cylinders. You get behind, you simply play and fight harder to get back even again. Useless stat imo only. I know my friend Sherwood loves to mention the sog factor in many of his writeups, I simply don't agree with that breakdown when handicapping a game.
The other thing here here is the team totals have gone over in 12 of the last 13 here and 15 of 17 of the teams we are playing. First 3 were losers as well. So while some have suggested playing the 1st period as well as the game, ( I didn't check any of those results) the team totals have been money as well here.
Great angle we are playing here and can only hope hope it continues but the law of averages seems like we should all proceed cautiously going forward. I'll be playing blindly just like Feddz. I nailed 4 out of the 5 yearterday myself and the only reason it wasn't a clean sweep was the Wing game wasn't up on the overnight line and I unfortunately slept past the puck drop. Live and learn. Thanks again guys..
Actually that Ranger-Leaf game on the 13th should have cancelled out that bet so the streak is actually 13 of the last 14 and 14 of 16. As a winner for both the game AND the team total. Little did we know the team total was just as solid as the original angle itself and a profit of another 18.02 units without factoring in any juice.
Good Post - Bushay - SOG are like Defensive Passing Yards on good teams.....When they get a head the OPP has to throw to catch up, especially doesn't always factor to wins...
Teams Totals have been gold.
I was going to stay silent about this trend in the thread as I didn't want it to become to main stream but I have seen it at EE now and pretty soon the Books will catch up....maybe they don't care b/c the handle is so small.
Another thing I have also noticed is the line usually moves against the play Foe Example - Arizona and Colorado rose by 20 extra points ....To day the sharks have dropped 20 points ...probably b/c players are thinking first coach angle with Bruins. That just helps us....
I heard on HNIC last night that the CGY front office propose to the league that next year instead of individual teams taking breaks each conference break at different times and then when they come back have a mini-rivalry week, while the other conference is off.
I like that theory - Back to back games in the Middle of the season brings some PO emotion into the game.
AT least CGY is good for something - Whale did you notice the Canucks beat the Flames again last night!
GL today guys
Keep flat betting this system don't go crazy its been a good run but it very easily could have been 2-3 yesterday.......
Thanks to everyone for adding something to the thread. No such thing as hijacking in any of my threads! One game tonight fits the bill, as Arizona is in Dallas, who is coming off their bye. I would echo what powerz said just above though - continue flat betting or perhaps even pick your spots, as the reality of teams struggling off the bye is very common knowledge now. I've seen that info on every betting forum, and every sports network's broadcast. As a result we're not likely to see as much value as before, as you may get even some ordinary joes fading teams off byes. Having said that, the Coyotes opened at +195 and are now +231, so it's hard not to find some value there even without the bye. Some of the line movement is that Domingue is playing, and some of it that Arizona lost last night in Chicago. GLTA
