You might want to take a look at Stanford Wong's book "Sharp Sports Betting" on this topic.
There are certain numbers in NFL games where buying a half point makes sense.
I think his basic point is that if you can pay 10 or 15 cents to get to 3, or 10 cents to get to 7, 14 or 17 you have helped yourself out a tad.
There are certain numbers in NFL games where buying a half point makes sense.
I think his basic point is that if you can pay 10 or 15 cents to get to 3, or 10 cents to get to 7, 14 or 17 you have helped yourself out a tad.
There's a good example of a situation where you wouldn't buy points even though the spread is 2.5 in today's NFL game between KC and Denver.
At least it wouldn't pay to buy the points at Pinnacle.
Pinnacle has KC as a 2.5 point dog at +112.
They'll sell you a half point for 25 cents (you get KC plus 3 at -113).
Dem guys at Pinnacle are sharp. It pays to do some homework and shop around.
At least it wouldn't pay to buy the points at Pinnacle.
Pinnacle has KC as a 2.5 point dog at +112.
They'll sell you a half point for 25 cents (you get KC plus 3 at -113).
Dem guys at Pinnacle are sharp. It pays to do some homework and shop around.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Buffalo66:
The NFL allowed the 2 point conversion beginning in 1994. Anybody have an idea on the effect this might have on key numbers? Anybody know of a key number analysis from 1994 to present? Thanks.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Yes, NEVER take +6.5, pay 10 cents(no more) and take +7.
The NFL allowed the 2 point conversion beginning in 1994. Anybody have an idea on the effect this might have on key numbers? Anybody know of a key number analysis from 1994 to present? Thanks.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Yes, NEVER take +6.5, pay 10 cents(no more) and take +7.
if you are not a pro, then yes buying points is a must!! if youre a guy with a 500 post up looking to bang a book quick make it or break it type then yes by all means by points. if you are real disciplined with money management and what you make is soley based on your win % then no, dont buy points.
According to Wong's book, fezzik and jack48 are correct. Wong has compiled a table based upon how frequently a spread has taken place in the NFL from 1985-2000.
According to his table, a spread of 3 takes place 10% of the time. Therefore, paying 20 cents or less for a push or win on 3 makes sense. A spread of 7, 14, and 17 occurs 6% of the time for each spread. Paying 12 cents or less for a push or win on these numbers makes sense.
All other spreads occur less than 5% each so buying into those numbers for a dime is not worth it.
According to his table, a spread of 3 takes place 10% of the time. Therefore, paying 20 cents or less for a push or win on 3 makes sense. A spread of 7, 14, and 17 occurs 6% of the time for each spread. Paying 12 cents or less for a push or win on these numbers makes sense.
All other spreads occur less than 5% each so buying into those numbers for a dime is not worth it.
Whatever the price of the extra points or half points is, it most likely lowers your percentage of return.
To suggest otherwise is to believe that the Book would routinely offer you something that actually increases your percentage of return beyond those related to a -110 baseline.
We don't think the Book is going to offer us an extra option - buying points - that decreases his own rate of return. So we never do it.
To suggest otherwise is to believe that the Book would routinely offer you something that actually increases your percentage of return beyond those related to a -110 baseline.
We don't think the Book is going to offer us an extra option - buying points - that decreases his own rate of return. So we never do it.
barman:
I think you make a good point. The better books probably already know how many points that buying up to 3 in the NFL is worth. What I wonder is how many of the lesser books know this?
Has anyone found any books offerening less than 20 cents for a push or win on 3 or paying less than 12 cents or less for a push or win on 7, 14 and 17??
I think you make a good point. The better books probably already know how many points that buying up to 3 in the NFL is worth. What I wonder is how many of the lesser books know this?
Has anyone found any books offerening less than 20 cents for a push or win on 3 or paying less than 12 cents or less for a push or win on 7, 14 and 17??
Is my math right in calculating that for every 100 dollar bet WON at -170 vs -110 (assuming buying the points werent needed) you lose about 32 bucks per win?
(bet 100 to win 59 vs bet 100 to win 91)
Also does anyone have a table like this one:
http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/key_numbers.htm
for college hoops?
(bet 100 to win 59 vs bet 100 to win 91)
Also does anyone have a table like this one:
http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/key_numbers.htm
for college hoops?
Barman is guilty of a classic wagering mistake: assuming the Casino and Sportsbook always has the edge or advantage in every area.
Novice 21 players say "never surrender.....the casino wouldn't offer it if it was a good idea. Good 21 players know that the surrender option makes the casino more money, but only due to misplays by the players instead of optimal play.
Similarly, the casino makes more allowing players to buy on/off all the numbers for 10 cents. But obvious very slight slippage occurs on the NFL 7. And letting the player buy on/off 3 for 10 cents leads to a total house bloodbath.
You might want to talk to the "qualified" lilne managers over at Aces Gold regarding whether buying on/off 3 for 10 cents makes sense. These guys weren't competent enough to run a Bingo Night at a Senior Citizen Center. The only amazing thing is that they lasted as long as they did.
Novice 21 players say "never surrender.....the casino wouldn't offer it if it was a good idea. Good 21 players know that the surrender option makes the casino more money, but only due to misplays by the players instead of optimal play.
Similarly, the casino makes more allowing players to buy on/off all the numbers for 10 cents. But obvious very slight slippage occurs on the NFL 7. And letting the player buy on/off 3 for 10 cents leads to a total house bloodbath.
You might want to talk to the "qualified" lilne managers over at Aces Gold regarding whether buying on/off 3 for 10 cents makes sense. These guys weren't competent enough to run a Bingo Night at a Senior Citizen Center. The only amazing thing is that they lasted as long as they did.
Fezzik says:
"Good 21 players know that the surrender option makes the casino more money, but only due to misplays by the players instead of optimal play."
Could we then apply this principle to buying points in the NFL? For example, the historical data from 1985 - 2000 says that teams win by 3 points 10% of the time. Therefore getting less than 20 cents buying a push or win on 3 would be a good bet. But what about a low-scoring team?
A low-scoring team would more likely win by 3 points than a high-scoring team. Therefore it may be a good bet to pay a little more than 20 cents to get to 3 for a team like this.
The principle I'm trying to get at is that betting historical data (or using the surrender option) is accurate for the general principle, whereas using that data can be a guideline that can be used for optimal play by adjusting for special circumstances.
"Good 21 players know that the surrender option makes the casino more money, but only due to misplays by the players instead of optimal play."
Could we then apply this principle to buying points in the NFL? For example, the historical data from 1985 - 2000 says that teams win by 3 points 10% of the time. Therefore getting less than 20 cents buying a push or win on 3 would be a good bet. But what about a low-scoring team?
A low-scoring team would more likely win by 3 points than a high-scoring team. Therefore it may be a good bet to pay a little more than 20 cents to get to 3 for a team like this.
The principle I'm trying to get at is that betting historical data (or using the surrender option) is accurate for the general principle, whereas using that data can be a guideline that can be used for optimal play by adjusting for special circumstances.
