Ok. With respect to this, it is definitely a long shot. Phase II clinical trials are simply not predictable from successes in Phase I trials. Apples and oranges. I looked at their website and saw that they are just at the beginning of clinical trials (which can take several years) and have funding only to carry them three the next 2 years, which is why the shorts are piling on.
https://ir.ziopharm.com/news-releas...presentation-jefferies-2019-london-healthcare
I think the smart (but effortful) way to play this is to actually wait until after the initial short squeeze. This will only happen if the drug shows some signs of working. And if it works then it is a much bigger deal than most drugs. At this moment there is no evidence at all that it works in humans. And it looks to me that it will take another year before any reliable phase II trial results will be announced.
In other words, I don’t think there is any rush at all to move on this even if it works out. Also, with such a big short, the positions will not all move at once. There will be a lot of unreliable news coming out over the next 9 months so it will definitely be a roller coaster ride. My best guess is that if you buy this at a price less than $7.50/share then it will likely go to zero. However if ever breaks $8/share then I’d become interested in it.
Rationale: Seems like an all-or-nothing drug. It either cures 80% of all cancers in which case there’ll be at least 10 years of increasing stock prices, or it will be a dead end or something marginal. No need to rush. Btw, I’m fascinated by that $7 price target after 18 months. It makes my point about there not being a rush on this. Obviously, if there is any evidence the drug works then the price will increase by at least 10 fold (above $50). So what does $7 mean? It means that 18 months from now, we will still not know if the drug works.
Recommendation: The company seems to put out a lot of communications and press releases. I’d follow them and track the stock price’s response to them over the next 6 months. Try to get a feel for what the smart money is doing.