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[SoonerBS]

Top 10 softest nonconference schedules

Monday, June 15, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

This week's top 10 list: the softest nonconference schedules in the country. I'm using a formula in which I've assigned a value to each opponent based on a 10-point scale, with a 10 going for a team that I expect to be an elite, top-five caliber team this year and with that game being in the powerhouse's home stadium. (It'd be a 9 if that powerhouse is the road team, meaning home-field is worth one point.) I'm also averaging the points out since some teams have three nonleague opponents and some have five.

1. Northwestern (Towson; EMU; at Syracuse; Miami [Ohio]) Quality point average: 2: Wow. The Wildcats face three FBS opponents and all three are projected to finish in the cellar of their respective conferences or at least conference divisions. Plus, that FCS team they've got, Towson, is coming off a 3-9 season. This is about as close to four sure wins as anyone is going to get.

2. Penn State (Akron; Syracuse; Temple; Eastern Illinois) Quality point average: 2.5: Yes, this is the same exact rating as Ole Miss. PSU wins (or is it loses?) the tiebreaker because the Nittany Lions didn't even schedule a road game and because Ole Miss at least faces someone who went to a bowl game in the past three seasons. PSU has six of its first seven games at home, and the closest thing to a formidable nonleague opponent is Temple, which is 3-34-1 against the Lions and hasn't knocked off Penn State since 1941. Akron also is an OK opponent, but is still coming off a 5-7 season. It's worth noting that this is only the third time in 16 years since PSU arrived in the Big Ten that the Nittany Lions have scheduled an FCS opponent.

3. Ole Miss (At Memphis; Southeastern Louisiana; UAB; Northern Arizona) Quality point average 2.5: The Rebels' schedule can't get any easier than this season. The in-conference slate breaks incredibly well, but we're focusing just on the out-of-league schedule, and let's be honest: No one should be scheduling two FCS opponents, but that's what the Rebels have got with home games against Southeastern Louisiana and Northern Arizona. (The Rebels have beaten their past 10 opponents from what is now the FCS level by an average of 29 ppg.) Hosting a UAB team has won six games in the past two seasons doesn't figure to be that much tougher. The Rebels do begin the season on the road against a decent Memphis team, although it's still just a little more than an hour drive and these are the same Tigers whom Ole Miss has beaten five straight times.

T4. Kansas State (UMass; at Louisiana; at UCLA; Tennessee Tech) Quality point average: 2.75: Bill Snyder's back, so get ready for the pastries to start rolling. On the positive side, UMass is a pretty good FCS team, but they're still FCS. Also, a road trip to an improving UCLA team will not be easy. The rest is just too soft.

T4. NC State (South Carolina; Murray State; Gardner-Webb; Pitt) Quality point average: 2.75: The Pack have eight home games, with all four of their out-of-league games in Raleigh. Opening against a solid South Carolina team won't be easy and Pitt also figures to be a challenge. The other two are FCS opponents. It's hardly brutal, although last season the Gamecocks did thump State, 34-0.

6. Rutgers (Howard; FIU; at Maryland; Texas Southern; at Army) Quality point average: 2.8: Like Ole Miss, NCSU and KSU, the Scarlet Knights have two FCS opponents. They also have a short road trip to Army and get a visit from an improving FIU program coached by Mario Cristobal, one of Greg Schiano's former top assistants. The main reason they're not up there with Northwestern and Ole Miss is because of a road trip to face a solid Maryland team, which is 24-2 against nonleague foes at home.

T7. Kentucky (Miami [Ohio] in Cincy; Louisville; ULM; EKU) Quality point average: 2.88: This is pretty dismal for an SEC squad. Not one of the Wildcats' opponents went to a bowl game last season, although at least they are playing someone from a BCS conference. Playing Miami (Ohio) in Cincinnati got them a half-point credit for a road game. Eastern Kentucky is an FCS team, but at least the Colonels won their league title. Still, because they're an FCS opponent, they warrant only one point.

T7. Arkansas (Missouri State; Texas A&M in Arlington; EMU; Troy) Quality point average: 2.88: There are two respectable games here: facing an Aggies program still trying to find its way in the state of Texas and against a Troy team that usually goes bowling. Neither of these games should scare an elite program, but they're still more than cakewalks.

9. Idaho (at Washington; San Diego State; at NIU; CSU) Quality point average: 3. If you've won only three games in the past two seasons, it's probably not a bad idea to go easy on the schedule. And the Vandals have done that. They play at winless Washington and then host a SDSU team that just went 2-10. They later visit a decent MAC team in Northern Illinois and then host Colorado State.

10. Wisconsin (NIU; Fresno State; Wofford; at Hawaii) Quality point average: 3.25: The Badgers should be sizeable favorites in all four games, with the toughest being the road trip to Hawaii. The Badgers are 10-1 against Northern Illinois and then face a Fresno team that is 1-5 against the Big Ten and will be travelling East with a brand-new QB. Wofford is a very good FCS team FWIW.

 

[russ1945]

Ducks

Yes, the remark that Oregon only had 8 starts lost to inj (10th fewest) is in Steele's preseason mag on page 144 right near the end of "Phil's Forecast."

On page 221 Steele shows the statistical leaders. Boise St loses their leading rusher, Ian Johnson, 6 of 11 players who made receptions LY. They return their top tackler, Jeron Johnson, and 13 of 20 players listed on in the defensive stats. I agree their weakness should be their defense and stopping the Oregon running game. I am not judging anything based on LY's results. I have gone over that entire play by play several times.
This game is really tough to breakdown and it being played in Boise. I really don't think the public is sold one way or the other and if this game was not being played on Thursday a lot of people would leave this game alone. But being the first good one right off the bat everybody will have something on this game. I know Oregon had all kinds of reasons (excuses) last year and they are legitimate.
Honestly I have a little problem with the fact that Masoli only threw 13 TDs LY with 5 int. His total yards, running and passing, make him a unique animal. Oregon also lost 2 all Pac10 DBs (Chung & Byrd) and they are facing a very dangerous QB. I am not sold one way or the other and I may be the only guy in America with no bet on this game unless I can find something more concrete to convince me one way or another.

 

[GoSooners]

You can wipe your ass with those soft of schedules. When I was figuring out these ATS teams, I saw teams like Kansas St. who could possibly be a bit underrated. But I looked at their schedule and they're up to their old tricks again with an unbelievably easy schedule of two FCS teams. So basically they just have a 10 game schedule. Same with NCST with two FCS teams. I think these types of games are terrible in preparing a team for conference play. Take Florida State last season. They scheduled two FCS teams to start the season. And they started a week later than everybody else. So with the extra preparation time and two warmup games where they had the luxury of trying out new personnel, you would think they would have been well prepared for Wake Forest. But after scoring 46 & 69 points in their first two games, they score just 3 on Wake. That was the most idiotic scheduling to begin the season that I ever seen from a BCS school.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Rutgers goes to Maryland. Rutgers should win that game, but could be upset. Kansas State probably will lose to UCLA. I could also argue that Clemson's non-con schedule (Middle Tenn, TCU, Costal Carolina and @South Carolina is no harder than N.C. State's. There are numerous teams that play 3 patsies and one decent team. I think you alsoomitted Texas Tech, who plays North Dakota, Rice, @Houston, and New Mexico. Kansas has No. Colorado, Duke, @UTEP and So.Miss. Texas gets Monroe, @Wyoming, UTEP and UCF. The list is endless.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Yes, the remark that Oregon only had 8 starts lost to inj (10th fewest) is in Steele's preseason mag on page 144 right near the end of "Phil's Forecast."

On page 221 Steele shows the statistical leaders. Boise St loses their leading rusher, Ian Johnson, 6 of 11 players who made receptions LY. They return their top tackler, Jeron Johnson, and 13 of 20 players listed on in the defensive stats. I agree their weakness should be their defense and stopping the Oregon running game. I am not judging anything based on LY's results. I have gone over that entire play by play several times.
This game is really tough to breakdown and it being played in Boise. I really don't think the public is sold one way or the other and if this game was not being played on Thursday a lot of people would leave this game alone. But being the first good one right off the bat everybody will have something on this game. I know Oregon had all kinds of reasons (excuses) last year and they are legitimate.
Honestly I have a little problem with the fact that Masoli only threw 13 TDs LY with 5 int. His total yards, running and passing, make him a unique animal. Oregon also lost 2 all Pac10 DBs (Chung & Byrd) and they are facing a very dangerous QB. I am not sold one way or the other and I may be the only guy in America with no bet on this game unless I can find something more concrete to convince me one way or another.

I probably will not touch this game, but there is no way I take Oregon. They simply lose too many players in the skilled position and on defense, which has always been a major problem for them. This is also their first game under a new HC, and while everyone thinks that things will go smoothly becuase this guy was one of those "HC's in waiting", they rarely do. Now I am not necessairily going to take Boise State either. They have problems on the OL, and their defense is about as bad as Oregons. I would take Boise on the off chance that they are dogs, but if not, this game is a pass for me.

 

[SoonerBS]

You can wipe your ass with those soft of schedules. When I was figuring out these ATS teams, I saw teams like Kansas St. who could possibly be a bit underrated. But I looked at their schedule and they're up to their old tricks again with an unbelievably easy schedule of two FCS teams. So basically they just have a 10 game schedule. Same with NCST with two FCS teams. I think these types of games are terrible in preparing a team for conference play. Take Florida State last season. They scheduled two FCS teams to start the season. And they started a week later than everybody else. So with the extra preparation time and two warmup games where they had the luxury of trying out new personnel, you would think they would have been well prepared for Wake Forest. But after scoring 46 & 69 points in their first two games, they score just 3 on Wake. That was the most idiotic scheduling to begin the season that I ever seen from a BCS school.

Bill Snyder is the Father of Easy Scheduling. Other programs have learned from him.

That Florida State/Wake Forest Game was simply a rescheduled baseball game layed over from a rain out in Spring, wasn't it?

 

[russ1945]

softest non-conference schedules

Any such list that does not have Texas on it is just incomplete at best.
ULM, Wyoming, Utep, UCF. Are you kidding me?

 

[GoSooners]

Bill Snyder is the Father of Easy Scheduling. Other programs have learned from him.

That Florida State/Wake Forest Game was simply a rescheduled baseball game layed over from a rain out in Spring, wasn't it?

FSU's baseball team scored a record 37 runs in one game this season. The football team only wishes they could score that much. That Wake/FSU game had to be the ugliest display of inept offense that I've ever seen from a team. And Florida State's was even worse.

 

[UoweDucks]

Yes, the remark that Oregon only had 8 starts lost to inj (10th fewest) is in Steele's preseason mag on page 144 right near the end of "Phil's Forecast."

On page 221 Steele shows the statistical leaders. Boise St loses their leading rusher, Ian Johnson, 6 of 11 players who made receptions LY. They return their top tackler, Jeron Johnson, and 13 of 20 players listed on in the defensive stats. I agree their weakness should be their defense and stopping the Oregon running game. I am not judging anything based on LY's results. I have gone over that entire play by play several times.
This game is really tough to breakdown and it being played in Boise. I really don't think the public is sold one way or the other and if this game was not being played on Thursday a lot of people would leave this game alone. But being the first good one right off the bat everybody will have something on this game. I know Oregon had all kinds of reasons (excuses) last year and they are legitimate.
Honestly I have a little problem with the fact that Masoli only threw 13 TDs LY with 5 int. His total yards, running and passing, make him a unique animal. Oregon also lost 2 all Pac10 DBs (Chung & Byrd) and they are facing a very dangerous QB. I am not sold one way or the other and I may be the only guy in America with no bet on this game unless I can find something more concrete to convince me one way or another.

Hi Russ,
That still didn't explain what the lost start stat meant. I am wondering how he arrived at that number. I don't understand it.

As for Masoli, if you haven't been able to figure this yet, I am extremely bullish on him. And it wouldn't matter if he played for another P10 team either. There isn't another player in the conference that can impact a game to the degree that he can (maybe Locker if he gets his compl % improved). Nationally, I think that people will really come around on him if he does what I think he will. Just a cursory review of his second half in the holiday bowl should be enough to tell you what is in store for him this year, he was unstoppable. At this point in his career going into his junior season, he is lightyears ahead of where Dennis Dixon was going into his senior year.

While Oregon lost two all p10 db's they will return 2 all P10/ All-American candidate db's and they will be facing a WR unit that will have 3-4 new starters I believe.

I believe that one cannot decide whether to bet the game or not until a line comes out. In my opinion, as of now I'll be taking Oregon if I get more than a FG, the size of the bet will be determined by how much over a FG I can get. I am thinking that there IS a lot of love for BSU at home from the public.... One interesting aspect that I will also be looking for is a high total given that both teams are known for their offense. I think it is likely that the linesmaker will overshoot in game one. I may go the other way and take an under and THAT may be the strongest play of the game.

 

[UoweDucks]

Bill Snyder is the Father of Easy Scheduling. Other programs have learned from him.

That Florida State/Wake Forest Game was simply a rescheduled baseball game layed over from a rain out in Spring, wasn't it?

Snyder is actively trying to soften his future schedules as well by getting out of games vs BCS opponents. What a puss.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Boise looks young and a few of their road games look more like potential losses than the Oregon game.

 

[GoSooners]

Boise looks young and a few of their road games look more like potential losses than the Oregon game.

Two potential pitfalls for Boise is getting Fresno on the road early in the season instead of later when they usually play them. And Fresno always seems to be a tougher team early on than they do later in the year. I also think La Tech is a very dangerous game for them because of the long travel distance, and because Tech has a pretty physical team this year. They might possibly be able to push Boise around with their run game. Plus both games will be rowdy Friday night games. Boise is still the quickest team in their conference. Their speed is what a lot of these teams seem have trouble dealing with more than anything.

 

[Conan]

Boise looks young and a few of their road games look more like potential losses than the Oregon game.

They wear a bull's eye on their backs in every conference game. They are to the WAC what USC has been to the Pac-10. There are a few teams that have had near misses in the past such as Nevada and SJSU, and Dooley's LA Tech Bulldogs look like they are ready to give Boise what for when Boise travels there. It's just that LA Tech is still sort of an upstart program however they should be an upper tier team in their conference again this season. I don't think Tulsa will have a clue what they are really in for but they won't lay down, I'm sure of that much. But I see worse problems than Tulsa in Boise's conference games.

 

[SoonerBS]

I don't know, guys, I really thought Boise's year to show some chinks in the armor was going to be last season. They were actually "younger" last season and they were starting a rookie QB with a rookie line. I even laid some money on Boise going UNDER 10 wins and I hardly ever lay those O/U for the season bets (I don't like my money being tied up for an entire season.) But, the facts are facts -- Boise performed like Boise.

I'm not going to be writing Boise off anymore until I can see there are definite changes for the worse. Like I said in a previous post in another thread, I will be watching the Boise/Oregon game very close the opening weekend, but I will not be betting on it.

 

[russ1945]

Ducks

No I read you loud and clear. I know you are bullish. That is not my problem. One or both of these teams is going to prove one way or another if they have reached the reload vs. rebuild level. I love Masoli and he is one hell of a competitor. Blount is a stud also. But there are many question marks. I know I am more bullish on OU reloading their OL this year but I could be wrong. You kind of feel the same way about Oregon because they are your home team also. This game is being built out of proportion in Boise. Peterson is going to play the importance of this game to the hilt. National TV exposure. I am greatly influenced by the following quote from Steele (p220). "Boise and USC are the only 2 teams over the past 7 years to win 80 games, make 7 bowls and win at least 6 conference titles out of those 10. Seven of my 9 sets of power ratings pick Boise to go 13-0 wich makes them a prime candidate to be this year's BCS buster." I will be chewing on that statement for the next 2 1/2 months. That is pretty bold statement. I don't want to keep quoting Steele like it is scripture or something but you mentioned you had not bought his preview so I threw it in. What an opening night game. Can't wait.

 

[russ1945]

Ducks

This article kind of scares me. I think Boise St is full of guys like this and I think their common denominator is focus. When they face Oregon they will face a more "talented" team but is Oregon focused. A coaching change, many holes to fill, but still a lot of talent. But is focus a byword in the Oregon S&C rooms this summer? It is difficult to deal with a motivated, focused team even if it is less talented. Now let me define less talented. I think this has to do with hype, potential, and perception more than performance. I think that the Boise players to a man are dedicated to a perfect season. In fact, if they get by Oregon they may actually coast from there. Big big game for them.
No matter what the outcome Oregon still has to plow through the Pac 10 schedule. With all the distractions with a new coach and hiring an OC/QB coach so late, etc, I don't see Oregon approaching this game at the same mental level. Things like revenge for the loss and the cheap shot are not the same kind of motivators that Boise is dealing with. It is Boise against the world. Oregon is too busy trying to figure out which uniform to wear.
Ducks, I could be wrong, but this game is not about which team is more talented or potential. I think Oregon will fight like hell but I don't know if they will be ready for the inensity this game will involve right off the bat and on the road. We have plenty of time to analyze this game but I don't think much of what I just covered will change much.


<TABLE class=cols cellSpacing=0 sizset="105" sizcache="0"><TBODY sizset="105" sizcache="0"><TR sizset="105" sizcache="0"><TD colSpan=2 sizset="105" sizcache="0"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="75%" border=0 sizset="105" sizcache="0"><TBODY sizset="105" sizcache="0"><TR sizset="105" sizcache="0"><TD vAlign=top sizset="105" sizcache="0">Boise State defense uses TCU loss as motivation
June 16, 2009 12:00 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Graham Watson Boise State's Kyle Wilson won't say the loss to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl is the only reason the all-conference cornerback decided to forgo the NFL draft and return for his senior season, but it's definitely right up there.
The 17-16 loss to the Horned Frogs that broke up what would have been the Broncos' second undefeated season in the past three years is something that weighs on the minds of all of Boise State's defenders.
"I like to finish things that I've started and I would like to obviously leave on a good note, not saying that last year wouldn't have been," said Wilson, one of just five seniors on the Boise State roster. "The [TCU] loss did leave a bad taste in my mouth, but that can't take away from a good season. That would have been frosting on the cake, though. That would have made it all the better."
The loss to TCU is something that has fueled the Boise State defense during the spring and into player-led workouts this summer. It even prompted coach Chris Petersen to suggest the Broncos' theme for the 2009 season ought to be "One Point," signifying not only the loss but all the details that went into the loss.
"That was one that definitely put the chip back on our shoulder for the defense," defensive end Ryan Winterswyk said of the loss to TCU. "It makes it easier to work hard this summer and going into fall because that was such a close loss and we gave up a lot of rushing yards that game. If we would have kept them down, we would have won that game. It definitely is kind of a thorn in our side and it's something that we look to improve on."
The Broncos' defense focuses on that TCU game because it's the one blemish in what was one of the best defensive years since the Broncos joined the FBS. The Broncos ranked No. 2 in passing efficiency defense with a 94.43 rating, No. 3 in scoring defense (12.62) and No. 20 in total defense (308.15 yards per game). Only USC was better in passing efficiency defense and it was the highest passing efficiency defense ranking for the Broncos since they were ranked seventh in 2003.
"In the past at Boise State, we've outscored teams and the defense didn't have to worry about giving up too many points because the offense just scores 50 points," Winterswyk said. "We knew we were talented, but I don't think even we knew how good we were going to be going into the season until we got into fall came and things like that. Then the defense got a little bit of swagger and things like that. After we beat Oregon, we really started feeling pretty good about how our defense was looking."
The goal this year? Wilson said it's to be even better than last year. He said his goal is to strive for perfection and encourage his teammates to do the same by setting a positive example on the field.
He's watched hours of film from last season, picking out moments in games where he could have made that extra play to give the Broncos the edge. Although the minimal defensive mistakes accounted for just one loss, Wilson and the rest of his defensive teammates are hoping for no regrets at the end of the 2009 season.
"Since I came back, since last winter when we started working out again, it's been in my head," Wilson said of the TCU loss. "You know, that feeling of coming up short. It's something I haven't forgot and hopefully I won't have that feeling again."


Boise State Broncos, Kyle Wilson, Ryan Winterswyk
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[UoweDucks]

Russ,
There will be motivations on both sides. While it may be cute to infer that Oregon may be more worried about what they will wear to the game I can assure you that nothing is farther from the truth. There will be no lack of preparation or intensity. Any suggestion speaks to a lack of insight into Chip Kelly who is the most intense coach that I have seen at Oregon.

I can understand the temptation to overthink/overanalyze this game as it is an intriguing early contest but I won't fall prey to articles like that. From here to August all is speculation. Once I get a feel for Fall camp we can deal with what we see. I fully reserve to the right to waffle on my current opinion if my read on the ducks changes and I've done so in the past. But for now I see this as a contest between two well coached equally motivated teams with an edge in talent favoring Oregon. If the ducks firm up the Oline which I expect they will then I'll be taking them and the points which I am sure they will be offered.

 

[russ1945]

Russ,
There will be motivations on both sides. While it may be cute to infer that Oregon may be more worried about what they will wear to the game I can assure you that nothing is farther from the truth. There will be no lack of preparation or intensity. Any suggestion speaks to a lack of insight into Chip Kelly who is the most intense coach that I have seen at Oregon.

I can understand the temptation to overthink/overanalyze this game as it is an intriguing early contest but I won't fall prey to articles like that. From here to August all is speculation. Once I get a feel for Fall camp we can deal with what we see. I fully reserve to the right to waffle on my current opinion if my read on the ducks changes and I've done so in the past. But for now I see this as a contest between two well coached equally motivated teams with an edge in talent favoring Oregon. If the ducks firm up the Oline which I expect they will then I'll be taking them and the points which I am sure they will be offered.

Ducks:

That's why I wanted to run this by you. This game is packing a lunch already. I have almost gone full circle on this game and for all the worry it may come down to a TO or a missed FG. You said it correctly, this is one of the most "intriguing" games to come along in a while. I may watch the first half and bet the second half on this one.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Oegon will be lucky to have a team at all, if this exodus out of Oregon does not stop soon. Say what you want, but when players start leaving a team, there is trouble on that team. You can not say that Oregon is well coached when their new HC has not even coached a game. Don't tell me about what he did as an assistant coach. That means squat, and has been proven hundreds of times in the past.

On the other hand, Boise has a habit of following a good season with a season that is not so good. In 2004, they were undefeated in regular season play. In 2005 they had 3 losses. In 2006, they were undefeated. In 2007, they had 3 losses. Last year they were undefeated. See the pattern?

Last year everyone thought that the Georgia-Arizona State game would be huge, and it ended up being nothing. The same may hold true of this game when all is said and done.