Bronco NBA Formula Season Long Thread

[Broncos625]

Lost Cleveland. So after 5 days, hitting exactly 50%. I told myself I will give this three weeks. My goal is to hit 57% or more on 3 unit plays and 65% or more on 5 unit plays. If I do that, I will consider the forumula a success.

Record:

3 unit plays 3-3
5 unit plays 1-1
Close calls (value 3.5-3.99) 1-0

 

[Broncos625]

One play for Monday.

Orlando -12 3 units (value 4.22)

BOL!!

 

[Broncos625]

I just wanted to point this out to anyone lurking. This forumula is obviously picking great games. While I will never defend losses, as a loss is a loss, I will defend this formula. 3 or my 4 total losses have come at the hands of unfortunate endings.

Milwaukee had a nightmare fourth quarter getting outscored by 12, not a common occurrence. Denver got hit by a Suns 3 in final 30 seconds, again, an unfortunate occurrence. Cleveland got hit by a meaningless Durant 3 to blow that cover. So while they are obviously losses, I truly believe the forumula plays were good plays with just some unlucky last few seconds. I know if I stick to it, this forumula will continue picking the right side and the bounces will go our way.

Just wanted to point this out.

BOL!!

 

[TuArmedMan]

I still can't get over that Durant 3.

 

[Broncos625]

Yup it really sucked. Tough to lose games that way. But what can you do, bottom line, at least for me, is that the forumula is working.

 

[spydermite]

that was gay y even shoot that 3 gl 2nite

 

[LeaveNoDoubt]

GL TONIGHT, ORL has been playing great ball recently

 

[Broncos625]

Thx. :toast:

 

[Broncos625]

Alright, easy winner tonight. Updated record:

3 unit plays 4-3
5 unit plays 1-1
Leans (value of 3.5-3.99) 1-0

Be back in the morning with plays tomorrow.

 

[Broncos625]

Now this is very rare. There are four plays for Tuesday. All of them are 3 unit plays.

Charlotte -6 3 units (value 4.07)
Cleveland -7 3 units (value 5.37)
Boston -13 3 units (value 4.66)
Milwaukee +1 3 units (value 5.17)

BOL!!

 

[Broncos625]

What a night!! 4-0. Way to go into Christmas. Happy Holidays.

YTD Record:

3 unit plays 8-3
5 unit plays 1-1
Leans (value of 3.5-3.99) 1-0

 

[LeaveNoDoubt]

sick sweep tonight bronco ope:ope:ope: ope:

 

[spydermite]

`i dont know what 2 say ur fucking $

 

[Broncos625]

Glad to help! I will post my Christmas plays in a few hours. It doesn't matter if the lines are posted yet or not as, like I've said a few times already, the lines don't matter with this formula.

 

[2DIMES]

So u do have a thread

 

[custom2006]

Thanks Bronco

 

[Broncos625]

Yep, I have a thread. Here are my Christmas Day Plays! The line will be whatever the opening line is. Again, it doesn't matter what the line is, these WILL be plays at the units given. Cleveland is a play and I'm sure the line will be at least -15, but it doesn't matter. I can't stress that enough, the line DOES NOT MATTER. Ok, there are certain rare exceptions. Such as, LeBron gets injured and line drops big time, then of course the line will matter. But even with this, the play will still be a go, but at the final line rather than opening line.

Christmas Plays:

Portland (insert line here) 3 units (value 4.97)
Cleveland (insert line here) 5 units (value 8.92) - Just because this is the largest value to date, does not mean I will press harder on this play, I will keep it at my normal 5 units. The formula does not differentiate strength between a team with a value of 6 and one with a value of 10.

Lean Play - only my second lean play, I will not play this personally, but I will put into a parlay with the other two plays for fun.
Orlando (insert line here) (value 3.68)

BOL!!

and of course Merry Christmas!!

:toast:

 

[Broncos625]

I've decided to go into a bit of detail as to why lines do not matter for my forumula. I'm sure some are curious as to how I can have a formula that doesn't take the line into account. And, how in the hell can I find any value in a game without knowing the line??? It's simple really, well now it's simple after doing my research and testing the forumula out.

As I said in my opening post, the term "value" is an arbitrary term. You could call it "chicken" or "beer". Whatever, I just use "value" as it is relatable to bettors.

The forumula has one constant, and that is actual lines. By way of testing, backtracking and just plain experience in sports betting, I've found that Vegas knows what they are doing, plain and simple. Some on here will go on and on about trying to find "where Vegas screwed up the line". Fact is, they don't. And if by chance they do, it is very very very rare. Plain and simple, Vegas sets sharp lines, that's how they make money. Ever notice how many NBA games are very close to the spread and it takes a missed shot here or there for one side to cover by a couple of points? That's what I mean. The lines are dead on at least 90% of the time.

So taking that constant into consideration, I don't worry myself with the actual line as it is a built in assumption that the line is accurate. Again, this isn't just me thinking the lines are sharp, it's me knowing they are from testing and experience. The "value" is found with the teams playing, not the line.

Hope this clears up any mystery to my statements that the line doesn't matter.


Merry Christmas!!

 

[2DIMES]

Thanxs for the post i know you can't go into details and i would'nt want you to but isn't the line set to level off the playing field?

 

[Broncos625]

Yes, for the most part. And that is part of the "assumption" part of the forumula. That is where the rest of my forumula does the proper calculations "assuming" the playing field is indeed level due to the "sharp Vegas lines".

And BTW, the forumula doesn't simply take teams because they are "good". For example, Cleveland vs. Milwaukee (if this were a matchup for today) would be a no play. And let's say Boston v. Clippers were playing, again no play, but Boston vs. Detroit would be 5 unit play. So records and stuff like that are irrelevant with this.