Monday Brandon Lang
My 40 Dime selection is the Panthers over the Saints. The current line on this game is +6 1/2 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best price available. If the line you get is either +6 1/2 or +7, I advise buying the half-point up on Carolina.
ANALYSIS
I won't make the same mistake twice.
Yesterday I did something I very rarely do and I paid for it dearly: I made a road favorite a top play and I paid for it.
If you have been following me lately, I look for the value in the underdog, especialy the home dog and yesterday I went against that.
I won't do that again.
It is hard to go against this Saints bunch, especially when they have covered 4 in a row against this Panthers bunch in Carolina, so they seem to be the right side.
A closer look for me will show a Panthers team that is 5-1 at home this year with the only loss a 30-27 setback to the Seahawks back in week 12.
To put it bluntly, they are a different beast altogether on this field and considering Carolina has outgained their last 4 opponents, I expect their best effort tonight.
New Orleans was balling out with 10 wins in a row SU and 9 in a row ATS when they arrived in Dallas and got beat 13-10.
They were down 14-3 to Tampa last week in the 3rd when they blocked a punt and rallied for the 28-14 win.
For me, throw the stats out the window...this is a divisional home dog on Monday night of near a touchdown playing for any hope to remain in the playoff hunt.
Furthermore, with the Rams loss last night to Philadelphia, the Saints now have a 2-game cushion for home field advantage throughout the entire NFC playoffs.
They play here in Carolina tonight before finishing their season at home against Pittsburgh and Carolina again.
I will roll with the home dog on Monday night.
NOTE
Time for Monday night winner #2 in a row and 5 of the last 6..
And I do it with a 40 dimer on the Saints and Panthers as I look to go to 5-1 and get that $10 Bettor Up $2,550 the last 6 weeks on Monday night.
Let's recap this red hot run because it's worth mentioning:
Last Monday - 80 Dime Winner - Seattle (-2 1/2) 21-7 over Vikings
Monday 12/3 - 40 Dime Winner - Philly (-6) 25-13 over Redskins
Monday 11/26 - 50 Dime Loss - Titans over Texans
Monday 11/19 - 100 Dime Winner - Rams (-2 1/2) 54-51 over Chiefs
Monday 11/12 - 50 Dime Winner - Giants over Niners
You add it all up and it's a pretty good run on Monday night the last 5 weeks..
As for Sunday, came up short with the 100 dimer on the Patriots as Tom Brady came up short in clutch moments as the New England lost outright 17-10.
Neither team played very well but it was surprising to me that in the clutch moments, the alleged G-O-A-T looked more like an old horse ready to be put out to pasture.
Quite frankly, haven't has many losing Sunday lately, just my 3rd in the last 9 weeks but a losing Sunday nevertheless.
Let's go to the NFL numbers:
NFL LAST 9 WEEKS
6 Of 9 Winning Sunday's
16-9 Run Overall
$10 Bettor Up $6,920
If you dig a little deeper you will find this run has been going back to last year:
OVERALL NFL RUN
38-24-2 Run Going Back To Last Season
- $10 Bettors Have Made $12,145 -
Am I disappointed in the Chiefs on Thursday and Pats on Sunday, absolutely, beyond disappointed but it's a disappointment I haven't had lately in the NFL.
All I can do tonight is pick myself up, get this Monday night winner under my belt and put this past week behind me because it wasn't one of my best.
Time to get it done.