PARLAY
18 January
Start time : 12:15 CET
Biathlon - Women: World Cup 10 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Ekaterina Iourieva vs Kati Wilhelm
My pick is Kati Wilhelm to finish ahead
Odds : 1.50
+
Kaisa Mäkäräinen vs Magdalena Neuner
My pick is Magdalena Neuner to finish ahead
Odds : 1.35
Combined odds : 2.03
Where : unibet
4 units to win 4.12 units
Wilhelm will start 41 seconds ahead of Iourieva and Neuner 38 seconds ahead of her opponnent , this should be more than enough time to finish ahead in the end .
18 January
Start time : 12:15 CET
Biathlon - Women: World Cup 10 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Ekaterina Iourieva vs Kati Wilhelm
My pick is Kati Wilhelm to finish ahead
Odds : 1.50
+
Kaisa Mäkäräinen vs Magdalena Neuner
My pick is Magdalena Neuner to finish ahead
Odds : 1.35
Combined odds : 2.03
Where : unibet
4 units to win 4.12 units
Wilhelm will start 41 seconds ahead of Iourieva and Neuner 38 seconds ahead of her opponnent , this should be more than enough time to finish ahead in the end .
How many hits will Ekaterina Iourieva (RUS) record in the 3rd round of shooting?
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 2.00
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 2 units
How many hits will Ekaterina Iourieva (RUS) record in the 4th round of shooting?
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 2.00
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 2 units
Both standing position shootings , this is where she struggled lately especially when you have to shoot 2 times in every position .
Mass start last week : 0+0+2+2
So she hit all 10 shots in prone position shooting and missed twice every time in standing position .
Last pursuit race from 2008 : 0+1+2+2
Again twice 2 errors in standing position shooting .
I think in worst case this is a money back bet as I cant see her making all 10 shots standing .
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 2.00
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 2 units
How many hits will Ekaterina Iourieva (RUS) record in the 4th round of shooting?
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 2.00
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 2 units
Both standing position shootings , this is where she struggled lately especially when you have to shoot 2 times in every position .
Mass start last week : 0+0+2+2
So she hit all 10 shots in prone position shooting and missed twice every time in standing position .
Last pursuit race from 2008 : 0+1+2+2
Again twice 2 errors in standing position shooting .
I think in worst case this is a money back bet as I cant see her making all 10 shots standing .
girls race:
Sleptsova over Ioureva @2.02 big
she is 9 sec ahead with same errors yesterday...last week s mass start had them both with 4 errors, but slepts 23 sec ahead..with the bad running form of Ioureva already mentioned, Slepts can make up one or even 2 errors here. and she is not a worse shooter at all.
Neuner- over WIlhelm @1.98
it will be close, but Neuner is clearly faster right now. yesterday same time, but 1 error of Neuner..in last mass start she was 13 sec behind Wilhelm, but had 3 more errors. neuner needs to keep it within 1 maybe 2 errors.
Sleptsova over Ioureva @2.02 big
she is 9 sec ahead with same errors yesterday...last week s mass start had them both with 4 errors, but slepts 23 sec ahead..with the bad running form of Ioureva already mentioned, Slepts can make up one or even 2 errors here. and she is not a worse shooter at all.
Neuner- over WIlhelm @1.98
it will be close, but Neuner is clearly faster right now. yesterday same time, but 1 error of Neuner..in last mass start she was 13 sec behind Wilhelm, but had 3 more errors. neuner needs to keep it within 1 maybe 2 errors.
Henkel over Berger @ 2.57
good dog here. Henkel is 18 sec behind due to one more error..i rate them similar in running and just hope for Henkel to have one less error which should make up the hdc. at this price i like it.
Olofson- X.Liu @ 2.02
basically the same yesterday. so Olofson can run with Liu, but over 4 shootings she should have less errors
Makkarainen over Zaidsova @ 1.91
one of the bigger plays. Makk is 11 sec ahead with same errors. in last weeks mass start she took 1.14 min from Zaidso with 2 less errors. she should be a bit faster, which gives her basically a 2 shoot advantage here.
Henkel- Liu: Henkel @ 1.84
also one of the bigger plays.
Henkel is 30 se back with one more error. even with her form a bit down. she needs to make up 1 maybe 2 errors...Liu is struggling right now with shooting big time (1 in sprint, 4 in relay, 8 in last weeks mass start). Henkel needs to go about 3 or 4 to have a good chance.
good dog here. Henkel is 18 sec behind due to one more error..i rate them similar in running and just hope for Henkel to have one less error which should make up the hdc. at this price i like it.
Olofson- X.Liu @ 2.02
basically the same yesterday. so Olofson can run with Liu, but over 4 shootings she should have less errors
Makkarainen over Zaidsova @ 1.91
one of the bigger plays. Makk is 11 sec ahead with same errors. in last weeks mass start she took 1.14 min from Zaidso with 2 less errors. she should be a bit faster, which gives her basically a 2 shoot advantage here.
Henkel- Liu: Henkel @ 1.84
also one of the bigger plays.
Henkel is 30 se back with one more error. even with her form a bit down. she needs to make up 1 maybe 2 errors...Liu is struggling right now with shooting big time (1 in sprint, 4 in relay, 8 in last weeks mass start). Henkel needs to go about 3 or 4 to have a good chance.
All look solid , I am not making anymore bets on this race .
Here are some underdogs I see :
Chunli Wang +137 over Xanying Liu
Starts 27 seconds ahead , not a great shooter but Liu struggling at the moment as well and Wang is usually one of the better ones in running .
Darya Domracheva + 165 over Svetlana Sleptsova
Starts 18 seconds ahead , at those odds might be worth a try .
Here are some underdogs I see :
Chunli Wang +137 over Xanying Liu
Starts 27 seconds ahead , not a great shooter but Liu struggling at the moment as well and Wang is usually one of the better ones in running .
Darya Domracheva + 165 over Svetlana Sleptsova
Starts 18 seconds ahead , at those odds might be worth a try .
- 4 units in women race , hopefully make it up in men race .
18 January
Start time : 12:15 CET
Biathlon - Men: World Cup 12.5 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Ole Einar Bjørndalen vs Rest of the field
My pick is Ole Einar Bjørndalen to win
Odds : 1.55
Where : unibet
5 units to win 2.75 units
30 + seconds ahead of everyone , all serious opponents other than Svendsen are over 55 seconds behind which means Bjorndalen has 2 penalty loops time he can afford to run .
18 January
Start time : 12:15 CET
Biathlon - Men: World Cup 12.5 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Ole Einar Bjørndalen vs Rest of the field
My pick is Ole Einar Bjørndalen to win
Odds : 1.55
Where : unibet
5 units to win 2.75 units
30 + seconds ahead of everyone , all serious opponents other than Svendsen are over 55 seconds behind which means Bjorndalen has 2 penalty loops time he can afford to run .
18 January
Start time : 15.00 CET
Biathlon - Men: World Cup 12.5 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Halvard Hanevold vs Andreas Birnbacher
My pick is Halvard Hanevold to finish ahead
Odds : - 126
Where : pinnaclesports
3.15 units to win 2.5 units
Birnbacher is ill and had to be replaced in the relay , pretty slow running time yesterday because he couldn't train . He will start 26 seconds ahead of the old dog Hanevold but I think he will lose this time in running , yesterday Hanevold had 20 seconds better time but 2 errors as well to 0 of Birnbacher however I think Hanevold wont make many errors today . He is usually solid in those races where you have to shoot 4 times , Birnbacher isn't as stable IMO and he will probably lose even more time than yesterday due to extra 2.5 km .
Start time : 15.00 CET
Biathlon - Men: World Cup 12.5 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Halvard Hanevold vs Andreas Birnbacher
My pick is Halvard Hanevold to finish ahead
Odds : - 126
Where : pinnaclesports
3.15 units to win 2.5 units
Birnbacher is ill and had to be replaced in the relay , pretty slow running time yesterday because he couldn't train . He will start 26 seconds ahead of the old dog Hanevold but I think he will lose this time in running , yesterday Hanevold had 20 seconds better time but 2 errors as well to 0 of Birnbacher however I think Hanevold wont make many errors today . He is usually solid in those races where you have to shoot 4 times , Birnbacher isn't as stable IMO and he will probably lose even more time than yesterday due to extra 2.5 km .
How many hits will Michael Rösch (GER) record in the 3rd round of shooting?
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 1,65
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 1.3 units
How many hits will Michael Rösch (GER) record in the 4th round of shooting?
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 1.65
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 1.3 units
I forgot last time Rösch didn't miss any in standing position shooting , in sprint 1 miss , in relay he missed 3 out of 5 targets . Last week in Oberhof in mass start he had 1+1+1+1 . Skipped first 2 shootings as he can be solid in prone position but standing is shaky all the time and shoots very quick which leads to many errors when he is off a bit .
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 1,65
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 1.3 units
How many hits will Michael Rösch (GER) record in the 4th round of shooting?
My pick is 4 hits or less
Odds : 1.65
Where : betandwin
2 units to win 1.3 units
I forgot last time Rösch didn't miss any in standing position shooting , in sprint 1 miss , in relay he missed 3 out of 5 targets . Last week in Oberhof in mass start he had 1+1+1+1 . Skipped first 2 shootings as he can be solid in prone position but standing is shaky all the time and shoots very quick which leads to many errors when he is off a bit .
i also have
Hannevold over Birnbacher @ 1.78
agrre completely to your reasoning.
Sikora over SUman @1.73
Sikora 8 sec back with one more error. i expect with same shooting result that Sikora wins.
Tscherezov over DeFrasne @ 1.62
basically same time yesterday with Tscheresov one more error. i expect him to make up at least 2 errors..so even with russians not in top form anymore this should be possible.
Bergman over Sumann @ 1.62
Bergman usually solid over long distance. he is 10 sec ahead and had even one more error. i think he has about a 2 error advantage here.
OS over Pinter @ 2.28
nice dog here. Os is 15 sec back and had 2 more errors. i think Os will make up 2 to 3 errors...this is up to Pinter to have a great shooting result (2 errors or better)..i like the value on the dog.
deLorenzi over Maric @ 1.55
lot of chalk, but i really like it. same time yesterday with Maric having one more error. de Lorenzi usually solid over longer distance and very well capable of good shooting result. Maric can be very shaky in shooting and is definetely not the better guy here.
i want to play Roesch, but not sure right now which matchup
either Roesch-Bergmann @ 2.24 or over Tschudov @ 2.09..probably playing both as i expect him to win at least 1.
Bjorndalen to win at 1.54 as discussed earlier
Hannevold over Birnbacher @ 1.78
agrre completely to your reasoning.
Sikora over SUman @1.73
Sikora 8 sec back with one more error. i expect with same shooting result that Sikora wins.
Tscherezov over DeFrasne @ 1.62
basically same time yesterday with Tscheresov one more error. i expect him to make up at least 2 errors..so even with russians not in top form anymore this should be possible.
Bergman over Sumann @ 1.62
Bergman usually solid over long distance. he is 10 sec ahead and had even one more error. i think he has about a 2 error advantage here.
OS over Pinter @ 2.28
nice dog here. Os is 15 sec back and had 2 more errors. i think Os will make up 2 to 3 errors...this is up to Pinter to have a great shooting result (2 errors or better)..i like the value on the dog.
deLorenzi over Maric @ 1.55
lot of chalk, but i really like it. same time yesterday with Maric having one more error. de Lorenzi usually solid over longer distance and very well capable of good shooting result. Maric can be very shaky in shooting and is definetely not the better guy here.
i want to play Roesch, but not sure right now which matchup
either Roesch-Bergmann @ 2.24 or over Tschudov @ 2.09..probably playing both as i expect him to win at least 1.
Bjorndalen to win at 1.54 as discussed earlier
Like that Bergman over Sumann bet , Sumann would probably need to go something like 19/20 to beat him , very tough even if Sumann is good in shooting he is slow lately .
18 January
Start time : 15.00 CET
Biathlon - Men: World Cup 12.5 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Carl Johan Bergmann vs Christoph Sumann
My pick is Carl Johan Bergmann finish ahead
Odds : - 150
Where : pinnaclesports
3.75 units to win 2.5 units
That's it for today , good luck guys !
18 January
Start time : 15.00 CET
Biathlon - Men: World Cup 12.5 km Pursuit Ruhpolding - Matchups
Carl Johan Bergmann vs Christoph Sumann
My pick is Carl Johan Bergmann finish ahead
Odds : - 150
Where : pinnaclesports
3.75 units to win 2.5 units
That's it for today , good luck guys !
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