Bragg's Tuesday (+47.6 units)

[seanjohn007]

ya that peay total seems like a gift from god

except we all know there's no such thing. vegas only gives money to guys like the LANGmister for making people think he actually knows what hes doing(i feel so bad for anyone that follows that douche) there has to be some reason.

 

[jbragg10]

Kentucky is getting too much love overall right now. This is an absolute no play for me now.

 

[blast00]

2009-02-17 KENTUCKY -1 -2.0 -135 77% 16% 81%
21:00 EST VANDERBILT 135 134.5 +115 23% 84% 19



dunno if that came out right b/c I can't preview it..

but its interesting out 84% are grabbing vanderbilt moneyline tho..

 

[jbragg10]

well if it is only +1 ... might as well take a shot at the moneyline. I really don't see this game coming down to 1 point either way

 

[blast00]

yeah I can't remember the last time a college hoops game was decided by 1 anyway.............

 

[blast00]

however we can laugh and ill buy you a beer if UK wins by 1... lol

 

[SKing24]

Not sure I understand the Austin Peay total on the game. Last time they played it was 166 total. The line is at 149. I think this is way too low for these teams. I will have a play on this one, but I will wait on how many units until later in the day.

They both average right at 80 a game and give up an average over 70 a game. Their defenses both suck. This almost looks to easy.

Can I play devil's advocate for a bit here???

FYI, J'State averages 70.6 pts/g and AP averages 77.6...while both teams give up almost the exact same #'s on defense that they score. Not sure why you guys think that total is an easy one. With those #'s you have above it's barely over 150. Throw in the fact that J'State averages 73 @ home while giving up 66.5 and AP is scoring 77 while giving up 77 away... Kick those #'s around a bit and you come up with a pretty solid total if not an under lean.

Keep in mind that J'State shot 53% FG and was 7/14 from 3...while AP shot 56% FG and was 8/15 from 3. Both the FG% and 3pt% are way above the norm. On top of those #'s they shot a combined 64 FT's!! That is 18 more than either team avg's both offensively and defensively. That is an EXTRA 12pts more than if both teams go to the line the 23 times they avg.

Also, the last 3 home games for J'State the avg total is 135, last 4 is 142 and last 5 is 137. The last 3, 4, 5 totals on away games for AP are 151, 158, and 149.

Only 6/13 away games for AP have gone over 149 and 3/10 home games for J'State have gone over 149.

Now I'm not saying that these guys can't get the over in this one, but if you really look at why they scored the 166 they did in their first match-up (inflated shooting %'s and FT's) on top of the other numbers I just don't see where you can think this total is easy.

 

[jbragg10]

^ thanks for the numbers ... but I still see it going over. Thanks for the input

I also kind of like the BYU over tonight as well

 

[SKing24]

^ thanks for the numbers ... but I still see it going over. Thanks for the input

I also kind of like the BYU over tonight as well

What #'s point to the over?? Did you read what I wrote? Good luck with the over, but I see this one falling around 142-145.

 

[SKing24]

^^You edited your post.... I knew there was no way you could say the #'s point to an over because they clearly do not. GL though and thanks for the winners this year!! I'll be following on a couple games but gonna go against ya on the AP/JS total.

 

[I_Need_Money]

yeah I can't remember the last time a college hoops game was decided by 1 anyway.............

It happened just yesterday.....twice. :think2:

 

[jbragg10]

Austin Peay Over 149 (3 units)
Purdue -2.5 (3 units)
BYU/New Mexico over 145 (3 units)
Kent St -7 (2 units)
Clemson -10.5 (2 units)
Murray St. -14 (1 units)
UK/Vandy under 135 (1 unit)

 

[jbragg10]

It happened just yesterday.....twice. :think2:

I think he means with the spread being -(+) 1

 

[Hamboner0182]

lot of chalk

but i like purdue and austin peay over as well. Kent st is down to -6 or -6.5 a lot of places. could maybe get caught looking ahead

 

[jbragg10]

yea ... a lot of chalk ... but if they are the only chalks that win tonight ... that would be fine by me. If you like it, you gotta play it. lol

 

[Tuna_No_Crust]

I dont know how well you know clemson but they are a 2nd half trainwreck. Now is a good time to fade them for some good cash.

 

[jbragg10]

^ let's hope not in this case

 

[boyzfan]

thanks for the picks bragg. tailing blind as usual. lets cash it.

 

[Indianwells]

best of luck JB. Hopefully we get back what should have been ours in the USC game

 

[jbragg10]

Austin Peay over is done. They need to score 100 points combined in the 2nd half. Lets hope for triple OT
LOL.

At least Purdue is looking good.

I just realized I didn't have Austin Peay -1 on here. I have them going for 1 unit (I won't count on here either way win or lose)