Totally agree with this stance, however I'm pretty sure true stat geeks believe hedging is a negative value proposition long-term. True that you can guarantee a win, but in the long run I believe letting it ride gives you the most overall value. Don't quote me on this as I've never done the math but I have read that before. If you're more interested in just locking in some sort of a profit then I'd probably throw a little on the Giants ML and hope for a middle - if buying it to -3 isn't too expensive that may also be an option. Personally lean Giants ML because though the winnings will be less that is a very pretty looking middle.
lettin her ride. i know....im the craziest guy you've ever seen lettin that $6 dollar parlay ride. at least im honest though. i could have pulled a newlywed and added a 0 to the end of my 6 and a 0 to the end of my 180
it was a fun parlay, i never play them because i feel they can be sucker bets, and im finna let her ride
i won my fantasy football super bowl today ($1,200) that I play in with my buddies with this lineup:
Peyton Manning
LeRon McClain
Ricky Williams
Wes Welker
Hines Ward
Steve Smith (pending)
Dallas Clark
Rob Bironas
NY Jets D
Put up a 154 spot this week, 134 last week, and 115 the week before ( I have Isaac Bruce, Pitt D, Peyton Hillis, Justin Fargas, etc on the bench)
so i guess im gonna say, im hoping today is my day and let this thing ride.
Go Panthas
it was a fun parlay, i never play them because i feel they can be sucker bets, and im finna let her ride
i won my fantasy football super bowl today ($1,200) that I play in with my buddies with this lineup:
Peyton Manning
LeRon McClain
Ricky Williams
Wes Welker
Hines Ward
Steve Smith (pending)
Dallas Clark
Rob Bironas
NY Jets D
Put up a 154 spot this week, 134 last week, and 115 the week before ( I have Isaac Bruce, Pitt D, Peyton Hillis, Justin Fargas, etc on the bench)
so i guess im gonna say, im hoping today is my day and let this thing ride.
Go Panthas
PS How bout dem Raidas
PSS How bout dem Titans
PSSS How bout dem Dolphins (Im a big dolphin fan, used to have season tix for like 15 years and went to every game)
Phins have a big showdown with the Jets next week
Favre vs. Pennington. Pennington gets to the play the team that discarded him for Favre
should be a very intense game as the teams are rivals already
PSS How bout dem Titans
PSSS How bout dem Dolphins (Im a big dolphin fan, used to have season tix for like 15 years and went to every game)
Phins have a big showdown with the Jets next week
Favre vs. Pennington. Pennington gets to the play the team that discarded him for Favre
should be a very intense game as the teams are rivals already
LeRon McClain gets a super bowl ring. Pitiful I know. Dude gets 20 carries a week though.
Bottom line, my team proved if you have a consistent QB, 3 consistent WRs, an X Factor TE and the #1 Kicker and win the intangibles, you dont need RBs.
I had the 8th pick in the draft so I have to get creative. I took Manning 1st round. BC you get 6 pts for QB TDs in this league.
I needed a RB round 2, there are a lot of sharp guys in the league, and all of the good ones were gone and I took Willis McGahee
hno: 2nd round. He was a huge bust obviously.
I picked up McClain in like week 5.
Picked up Peyton Hillis, Fargas, Dominic Rhodes, etc over the season off waivers. (4 total moves per season).
Mostly because either Denver or San Diego will get in despite a pitiful regular season.. this should be re-formatted so the deserving teams get in.. how could you deny the Fins or the Pats a playoff spot with the way they have been playing? Fins one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history, and Pats likely 11-5 despite their starting QB, SS, and LBs going down for the season.
It just makes no sense to take yourself out of a great winning opportunity like you are in. Like I said a Gmen -3 bet to ensure 50% of what you would have won is not a bad idea cuz it is 80 bucks +/- a beer.
I just agree with a saying I once heard.........Hedging is for pussies and landscapers........... I agree with that to some extent.
Nice Day Boxslayer you are one of the best. Glad to hear you let it ride. Nice win on Fantasy shit.
Yeah just heated cuz Im a homer and think the Fins are going to win next week behind a great effort from Pennington.. same with the NBA, saying more Western conference teams should make it than Eastern because the West has so many better teams.. cant get rid of divisional/conference play and playoff formats
I mean, I get what you are saying. Common sense tells me, forget the fact that I have won everything. What I have left is essentially $6 to win $180 on Carolina +3.5. That obviously seems like a no brainer. Those previous games have no outcome on this game.
Then again, I can see the other side of the common sense which is, I've already won. Why risk all of those games won, and all of those odds stacked against me for an extra couple bucks.
I am letting it ride. If I had risked $100 or something I'd hedge easily. But $6 or $180 wont make or break so I'll just root these Panthers home.
I obviously like them a little bit anyway as I bet them straight up for 1*.
Thanks for taking the time.
I'm aware that I was not asked for an opinion, but I'll give mine anyway.
I've never quite understood the logic of putting together a parlay with the intention of hedging, where the last leg begins after all of the others have finished. Basically, if you left the last leg out of the parlay, you'd already be in the winner's circle and you could play that game however way you want. There would be no need to give the house back any vig.
The only reason I see to put a game that starts after all of the others are final in such a parlay is if you expect the number to get worse and you really like the game at the available number.
That being said, I think everyone should play to win. Aside from the fact that I believe this game never should have been in the parlay, the only reason to hedge is if you now like the other side or if the payoff is substantial.
uke1:Tough one man...I feel kind of bad and that's why I almost didn't post in the first place. Like I said I liked the Giants and while that was lucky I was trying to give an opinion that didn't take your particular side into the equation as I believe that's what you were asking for. To have had the Panthers +3.5 at that payout tonight was such a good bet as to be unreal..but obviously the outcome must be a true stomach punch. Still think long-term you made the right play and while you probably won't take any consolation in that tonight I believe you had a good night still and a successful start to the college bowl season? Either way, sorry about the no-hit here - keep up the strong capping though.
Sometimes you can simply guarantee yourself money, and a wise man once told me to collect and collect often and whenever you can. You may feel like your last leg wasn't the right play after all or just for insurance. Ive had many 3 teamers for 100-500... at 100 if you won the 1st two games bet 100 the other way and you cost yourself nothing with a freeroll for 490, there are good and bad reasons either way
