*Boxslayer's NCAA Baseball Super Regional Series Picks*

[Boxslayer]

My thoughts on Mizzou/CSUF...I already played CSUF(very small) at -300 and might buy back at +500.

CSUF does have a legit ace in Wes Roemer...his #'s are 12-1, 2.02 ERA, 133 IP, 125 K's, 6 BB, and opp. BA of .200. Those are sick #'s, and I don't know if I have ever seen a ratio of 125 K's to 6 BB's. Also, Fullerton plays in a big park and they often have teams with not much power. They are a typical Horton team w/lots of speed(85 SB's), good team avg.(.311), and great pitching(Team ERA of 2.62). They also have a stud closer on their team. Also, I don't think the Mizzou bats are that great....now w/that being said, you are dead on about Missouri and how their season has gone. One thing about their sweep of UT was that UT had already wrapped up the Big XII title and the series didn't mean a whole lot to them...but you gotta like how Missouri is playing. I think you are right that +540 is good value for Missouri, but I gotta think CSUF wins this series at home in this situation 4/5 times. Also, Missouri has VERY LITTLE post season experience....just my .02.

Good Luck, and I like your logic on most of your picks...I am not trying to rain on your parade, just adding my thoughts to the mix.

nope, like i said, i encourage the discussion. thanks for adding it in, it all helps.

as far as everything you said, i agree with everything except for i think i wasnt clear about my point about fullertons pitching. and i did forget to factor in fullertons ballaprk into their homerun totals, but balls were flying out of there this weekend.

yeah, they have a legit ace, and so do most teams. i can sit here and start spitting off numbers of pitchers from winthrop and oral roberts with sick #'s.

obviously, roemer is different. he's special in that his actual stuff isnt anything out of this world, but he is exceptional in everything else that goesinto making a great pitcher. the guy always seems to be in control on the mound, and hes obviously not afraid to challenge hitters. he's got the x factor that makes up for anything he lacks (an over-powering fastball, size, etc)

but comparing a 1st round talent, practically a top 10 pick at that (#11 overall) to a pitcher like roemer, is a bit of a different story. thats all i meant by saying they dont have anyone to match scherzer, and very few teams do outside of UNC and Houston.

considering how many homeruns were hit over the weekend at fullerton, you are gonna need a guy with some height creating some downward planes with his fastball and breaking stuff, inducing groundballs, and staying out of the big run inning. if scherzer is on, he can be lights out, especially creating that downward plane at 6'6" and an overpowering fastball (and fullertons lack of homerun power). the scary part is with a pitcher like scherzer, he doesnt need to be on to dominate. his stuff is that good. taking a college arm at #11, they obviously feel that he can get major league hitters out right now, much less the fullerton lineup. i will actually be very interested to see where roemer goes next year in the draft. i would be surprised to see in the top 3 rounds though.

anyway, i dont think we'll ever disagree that fullerton has the better hitting club. but as others have mentioned, they struggle with lefties, and there arent many lefties better than Culp. With that 1-2 punch of Missouri, I'm not laying any sort of juice, much less -400-500.

all good discussion...

 

[Boxslayer]

Miami Hurricanes at Ole Miss Rebels

4* Ole Miss -165 for the series

Miami
#11 Pre-season
#12 RPI
#64 SOS
#2 seed at the Nebraska regional

If you ever wanted to have the strength of schedule conversation, look no further than University of Miami. #64 strength of schedule and then they breeze through the Nebraska regional without ever having to play the top seeded Nebraska because they were upset and went 2 and cue. So Miami, a very young team with a roster loaded with young guys, plays the #64 schedule in regular season, and then top it off to play Manhattan twice and San Francisco in regionals. Miami has taken care of the teams that they needed to take care of, but struggle when the competition steps up a notch.

Miami sweeps Duke, Virginia Tech, etc. Couple of nice road series wins at FSU, NC State, etc. But lose 2 of 3 to Winthrop, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech and get swept by Florida and Clemson at home. Then they enter the ACC tourney, and lose twice again to Georgia Tech, and beat Wake Forest.

John Jay makes this young lineup go, but Miami's bullpen is questionable.

It's evident, when the competition gets better, Miami has problems. And it will get better in this series vs. Ole Miss.


Ole Miss

#20 Pre-season
#14 RPI
#42 SOS

Ole Miss is another SEC team at the top of the league every year going through that grueling schedule. Ole Miss 29-8 at home.

Ole Miss had a fairly inconsistent season. Getting swept by Alabama, a couple of disturbing losses, etc. Part of that is due to the inconsistency of their starting rotation. Sometimes they start Kline, sometimes they start Rodriguez, etc. But they finished the year strong, taking 2 of 3 from Arkansas, 2 of 3 from Mississippi State, and getting a clean sweep through the SEC Tournament to capture the SEC Title. Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, and Vanderbilt fell victim to Ole Miss' SEC Tourney run. Ole Miss then swept through their regional Bethune Cookman, South Alabama, and Tulane.

Ole Miss has won 8 straight, and 7-0 in the postseason.

The problem I have with Ole Miss, and why this isnt that big of a play, is their staff isnt that deep, and they lose low-scoring games more times than not. Ole Miss wins when they can ge tthat lineup of theirs hitting. When Ole Miss scores 7 or 8 runs or more, they win. But if they have to play a 3-2, 4-2 ball game, they struggle.

But, of all teams, UM is a team that will have trouble out-scoring Ole Miss, and Miami's staff is consistent as well, despite their high draft picks off the mound.

 

[NYReb]

Nice write-up on Ole Miss series. Ole Miss was swept by Bama in the first series of the young season, before the pitching lineup was set. Rebs creamed Bama in the SEC tourney and are red hot now. In four games in SEC tourney closest game was won by 8. Only needed 6 pitchers to win 4 in SEC tourney and 3 in regional. I doubt that they'll need more than 6 to dispose of Miami. Will Kline is probably the best pitcher no one ever heard of.

 

[NYReb]

Box, you should be on 1st page.

 

[Boxslayer]

Couple of thoughts, I'd like to hear your opinion...

I know you're an Ole Miss guy, and I respect that. Love SEC guys. Ole Miss is hot right now, but for me, this is really just as much of a fade of Miami, than a play on Ole Miss. Miami's living off their name right now. This is not the typical Miami club that we see.

Yes, in the big scope of things Kline is a nobody, so being the best pitcher no one has heard of is not far from the truth at all. But that whole rotation has been inconsistent. They truly lack that dominant 1-2 punch to really make a push in Omaha once they start facing some better pitching. Yeah, most teams use a core of 5 or 6 pitchers, but Ole Miss' 5 or 6 pitchers aren't anything special. They are missing the stud pitchers that you need like a Mark Holliman, or Stephen Head. Their most talented guy out of the pen is Satterwhite, as he throws hard enough to be a nice draft pick when he's eligible, but he's only a freshman. Baumgardner is okay, and after that, thats their core staff. Starters are inconsistent, even Kline at times has shown inconsistency. Their going to need quality starts from that rotation, and that's asking a bit much against some better teams, but for now, I think they'll be able to get it done vs. Miami at home. Mainly, because Miami lacks a consistently dominant starter and lineup to shut down that Ole Miss lineup, and Miami's pitching, bullpen in particular, is average at best.

Ole Miss does play solid defense, and wont shoot themselves in the foot as evidenced by being ranked #19 in the NCAA in fielding %.

But if and when the Rebels get to Omaha, all bets are off. This year's Ole Miss club really has to score at least 8 runs to win. They struggle in tight games because they cant roll enough experienced talented guys out of the pen. They have to rely on their lineup, which is damn solid, but good pitching beats good hitting, and when they face a stud like Miller, Scherzer, Roemer, Buck, Reynolds, etc in Omaha, it will be tough for their staff to out-duel anyone.

Miami's team is too young, and their young guys dont have that typical spectacular Miami talent anyway. Ole Miss plays well at home, and I think they'll be able to outslug Miami in this series.

Finally...SEC Tourney
1. Opened up vs. a solid little Arkansas team and beat them with Kline.
2. Then beat an LSU team that failed to make regionals
3. then beat a Alabama team without facing any of their top pitchers (and Bama has trouble scoring offensively, so Ole Miss had to outslug a weak lineup)
4. and finished vs. a vanderbilt team without facing any of their top pitchers (vandys strength is in their 1-2 punch, which is why they were able to advance a few rounds in regionals and the SEC tourney but came up short as their pitching got deeper)

of course, ole miss didnt pitch any of their top pitchers towards the end of the SEC tourney either. Nobody did because they were spent. But my point is, in a slugfest, with bottom of the rotation guys, give me Ole Miss all day, they have a good lineup to get it done. But when you get a solid team out there that can score some runs and has a good pitcher on the mound, its gonna be lights out on them.

I take Ole Miss this series in a slugfest vs. Miami.
But....Fading them in Omaha if they play a team that can swing it, with a good pitcher on the mound.

Would love to hear your thoughts on my "analysis" above as I know you are a Rebel and know your team as good as anyone.:toast:

 

[Boxslayer]

breaking out the full card of game 1's tomorrow.

 

[TheShotDoctor]

Love "My Tigers" aswell!

I'll be heading up to Clemson for The Weekend early in The Morning!


I SLAMMED Them @ -240 For $1200!

TIGERS Over ORAL in 2 BLOWOUTS!

GL On The Others!
MR. NW

 

[Boxslayer]

Promised the Clemson write-up:

Oral Roberts at Clemson

Clemson
Ranked #1/#2
RPI: #1
SOS: #54

For those that don't follow college baseball, Clemson is another school where football may give them the reputation of not having a powerhouse baseball program. Not the case. Clemson is one of the elite programs, year in and year out, a true powerhouse, always in the hunt for Omaha. They made the white cletes famous now worn by the Oakland A's.

Clemson has not lost a home series all year.
Clemson has won 22 of their past 23 games.

They've beaten every type of school over those 23 games.
Botom feeders such as: Duke, Wofford, and Va Tech
Regional Teams such as: Mississippi State, Elon, UNC ASheville, NC State, College of Charleston
Powerhouses such as: GA Tech, FSU

Its clear Clemson does not play down to the competition. Clemson can win in a variety of ways, 1 run games, pitchers duels, and what they do best: blowouts.

Clemson went 12-5 vs. Super Regional Teams.

Clemson can hold opponents to small run outputs with their deep staff, while plating tons of runs with their potent lineup. Check some of these scores out:

14-1 (vs. Univ. of Miami)
6-0 (vs. Coll. of Charleston)
26-1 (vs. Wake Forest)
13-1 (vs. Wake Forest)
11-2 (vs. FSU)
9-1 (vs. FSU)

The above teams are about of the caliber of this year's Oral Roberts team. By the way, Clemson swept all of the above teams.

How do they do it?

Talent:
A school-record 10 Clemson Tigers selected in this year's MLB Draft.

Tradition:
Since Leggett took over 12 seasons ago: Clemson is the 6th winniest program in college baseball, with all 12 seasons resulting in post-season berths and 4 College World Series (Omaha) appearances. Produced players like Kris Benson and Khalil Greene.

Home Field Advantage:
34-5 at home. Havnt lost a home series all year.

Hitting/Lineup:
2 players batting over .350, 5 players over .320. 5 legit stolen base threats. No station to station baseball. 4-5 legit homerun threats.
Tyler Colvin (LF) was the #13 overall selection in the 1st round by the Chicao Cubs. Andy D'Allesio another draftee is batting .321/22/84

Pitching Depth:
Although this staff doesnt feature that true dominant ace, it is loaded with solid pitchers and depth.
3 pitchers taken in the top 10 rounds alone: (Starter RHP)Berken 6th rounder to the Orioles, (Starter RHP) Josh Cribb 8th rounder to the Royals, and finally (Reliever RHP) Steve Richard, 8th rounder to the Padres.

Getting tired, going to go to bed. Can't finish Oral Roberts tonight. Youre just gonna have to trust me that they are nowhere as good. LMAO.

 

[winkyduck]

agree with Ichiban

Wes Roemer is a STUD and will NOT be intimidated by ANYONE

this does look like it could be a 3-game series. i don't think fullerton loses it but NO WAY am i laying -800ish on the series

i posted a play in this forum on the Missouri/Fullerton game that to me just SCREAMS out to be played

 

[Boxslayer]

winky, ia gree about Roemer. As I said, he has the x factor, or every x factor one can have for that matter without having the overwhleming talent.

He doesnt have the mid 90's fastball and 6'5 frame.

But he does throw strikes, he does challenge hitters, he doesnt shoot himself in the foot by walking people and he has great mound presence. He's the "safest" pitcher in the whole tourney, in that you KNOW you are going to get a good outing out of him where he doesnt shit the bed.

But to compare his talent to a top 10 MLB draft pick is pushing it. Thats all I meant.

 

[Boxslayer]

6* Georgia Tech -1.5

Solid play on GaTech. Make it a run line play, stay away from the juice.

Why?

Georgia Tech is another men against boys play, like Clemson, but I can see one of these underdogs winning today, and I think this might be the game because of Georgia Techs lack of a true ace pitcher, tremendous history of post-season choking, and Charleston Southern's ability to swing the sticks.

However, Georgia Tech is a legit team and if they play anywhere near their ability, this one shouldnt be close. They have 5 guys in their lineup with double digit homeruns (all 5 of those guys are the batting average leaders too), and they are batting .320 as a team.

They also HAVE NOT lost a home series all year.



At home:

2/3 from former #1 seed Virginia
2/3 from #1 seed North Carolina
Beat Georgia (super regional team)
2/3 from #1 seed Clemson
2/3 from Miami (super regional team)

It's obvious no matter how good the competition gets, Georgia Tech takes care of business at home.

Their achilles heel is their pitching.

So lay the -1.5 here because if they win, they should win in a slugfest by a few runs.

 

[HPark1]

I've read Chigges is starting today. Men against boys seems an exageration when you have a guy with an era under 1.50 starting for the boys.

 

[LivingOffGamblingMoney]

The Yellow Jackets lead the ACC with 84 home runs in 2006, the highest team total since the NCAA adopted the current bat rules in 1999:aktion033

 

[Boxslayer]

I've read Chigges is starting today. Men against boys seems an exageration when you have a guy with an era under 1.50 starting for the boys.

If you want me to go to athletic websites and spit stats out to you on starting pitchers, I can do that. That's not what this is about.

Chigges is a draft eligible junior that was NOT taken in this year's MLB Draft AT ALL. Not even in the 50th round. Mainly, because they dont have over-powering velocities, they just go out there and chuck a lot of breaking balls as a staff, and you can get away with that kind of stuff in the Southern Conference, but this is a whole other animal for this team going into the Lion's nest at GA Tech and trying to take 2 of 3 from this Tech lineup.

College of Charleston has played the #111 ranked schedule in the country. Hey, Chigges is the man vs. Appalachian State, Furman, Wofford, St. John's, Georgia State, Savanahh State and Hofstra. I could probably roll out of bed and keep my ERA under 4.00 against these teams if I just throw strikes because they get themselves out.

Now, Charleston Southern can actually swing it a bit. But I question how well they will do vs. a top flight pitcher. GA Tech has solid major D1 starters, but no one that I would consider dominant, which is why the runline is a play.

Like I said, if I had to pick an underdog that wins between some of these games, I think Coll. of Charleston has a chance to take some aggresiveness away from Tech at the plate with the breaking stuff, CoC can swing it a bit, and Tech are choke artists. If they win this game, it will *most likely* be a blowout.

 

[royalfan]

probably dead on Box, but there is a possibility he informed big league clubs he was coming back for his senior year and not to bother drafting him. Just making sure you thought of that as an option in case you didn't think of it and hadn't actually seen him pitch.

 

[Boxslayer]

of course thats an option. baseball scouting is what i do for a living. but if the guy was a real talent, it doesnt matter how many letters he wrote to MLB, they still would have picked him up after the 10th round and tried to offer him a sick amount of money that he couldnt turn down because if clubs cant sign their 1st round pick, they would have a lot of money free'd up for that guy. it happens every year and teams always take stabs. happened this year again with 4 guys. pitcher from south florida out of high school told MLB he was going to junior college, and they took him in the 11th. nation's homerun leader in college last year from florida wanted too much money, had scott boras as an agent, and they took him anyway in the 14th.

the only way MLB draft lets a kid slip away like this, even if he informs them of his decision, is if he is an average talent. This tells me if the kid went in the draft, and wanted to go pro, he would have been no higher than 15th round pick, like the rest of the guys on his team that were drafted.

 

[spo-vegas]

Boxslayer,

I see my book has Clemson at -400 (ouch!) is it worth $2K to win $500 on these guys?

 

[AFLGuru]

Both of these guys have pitched nice games today through 6 in Atlanta

 

[HPark1]

Both of these guys have pitched nice games today through 6 in Atlanta

Yeah pretty well pitched game although CofC have run themselves out of two innings. They've also stranded runners on 2nd and 3rd in three different innings. At least it will go Under for me.

 

[AFLGuru]

6 1/3 and only 2 solo bombs? Not a bad outing for Chigges. However, he was outdueled 6 2/3 scoreless for GT's hurler. Hopefully GT hangs onto this game and doesn't do something gay like win 2-1...