I think Michigan is the side too. This conference matchup is almost always tough between these two. I think this may be a case of Michagan playing the game of their life vrs a confident Penn st team not playing the A game..
It smells like a trap to me too!
I think I'll make a small play on this...
GL this week!
RIPPER
It smells like a trap to me too!
I think I'll make a small play on this...
GL this week!
RIPPER
3* Alabama Crimson Tide -11 -110
No let down here, nothing on the horizon, off a bye week for both teams, just pure focus on this game. Bama gets Ole Miss at home, and I think with Bama sitting on their couches last week, watching all of these different teams struggle on the top 10, they are on the verge of #1.
Big statement game for Bama to show the country they are for real, vs. an Ole Miss Team with the famous and well publicized upset of Florida.
Ole Miss is probably a made extra point away from being 2-4 on the season, and Bama's tight game with Kentucky is fresh in the mind of many, but that was off the heels of their emotional blowout of UGA and they had a letdown.
Bama is the better team here, much better, and as good of a coach Houston Nutt is, Nick Saban is even better.
He has major advantages in the trenches, better athletes on the perimeter, a more efficient QB, homefield advantage, coaching advantage, turnover margin advantage by far, and the rushing advantage.
Bama's homefield can get rowdy and their fans will be pumped. That place can have a very big snowball effect on games and get things out of control.
With no major game to look forward to, and the nation watching closely, look for Bama to wear down Ole Miss in this game and make a statement.
Alabama 38
Ole Miss 19
No let down here, nothing on the horizon, off a bye week for both teams, just pure focus on this game. Bama gets Ole Miss at home, and I think with Bama sitting on their couches last week, watching all of these different teams struggle on the top 10, they are on the verge of #1.
Big statement game for Bama to show the country they are for real, vs. an Ole Miss Team with the famous and well publicized upset of Florida.
Ole Miss is probably a made extra point away from being 2-4 on the season, and Bama's tight game with Kentucky is fresh in the mind of many, but that was off the heels of their emotional blowout of UGA and they had a letdown.
Bama is the better team here, much better, and as good of a coach Houston Nutt is, Nick Saban is even better.
He has major advantages in the trenches, better athletes on the perimeter, a more efficient QB, homefield advantage, coaching advantage, turnover margin advantage by far, and the rushing advantage.
Bama's homefield can get rowdy and their fans will be pumped. That place can have a very big snowball effect on games and get things out of control.
With no major game to look forward to, and the nation watching closely, look for Bama to wear down Ole Miss in this game and make a statement.
Alabama 38
Ole Miss 19
2* Texas Longhorns -4 -110
The bounceback angle is one of the most overrated angles in handicapping and can only be applied to certain situations. This isnt one of them. Missouri lost last week, so suddenly they are going to get mad and win. It would be nice to add as one of many supporting facts to making a play, but is certainly not a strong enough angle to make it the basis for a play.
Texas off a big emotional win last week returns home to their home crowd and they get Missouri right where they want them. As much as I think Texas loses a game this season and maybe 2, it isnt here. You dont have letdowns and trip up on this game. You have a letdown and trip up when you think your work is done and you let your guard down and Texas has not let their guard down yet. They have a long gauntlet ahead of them and this isnt where they lose. Texas knows their work isnt done yet and these past two weeks with Oklahoma and Missouri have been circled on their calendar for a long time.
A very reasonable line to bet here at -4 vs. a Mizzou team with NO DEFENSE. The only offenses Mizzou has faced that are remotely close to Texas is Illinois first and OK State second and that resulted in 42 and 28 points given up respectively. I tend to lean to Illinois as mimicking the Longhorn offense the most as Juice and McCoy are running threats and OK State looks to run the ball, which isnt really Texas' style.
Longhorns at home with a similar offense to Illinois, I tend to think the Longhorns score 38+ in this game.
On the flipside, we saw a Mizzou offense out of sync last week, and they have yet to face any kind of a defense like Texas has. While Texas' defense was shown to be just okay last week, it is still the best defense that Mizzou has faced and will face all year. Chase Daniel will get pressure on him with Texas just rushing 4 defenders, and having everyone else dropped back into coverage. This will be a feeling Daniel has not seen much of. Texas is #4 in the country at stopping the run, so I dont see much balance at all for Mizzou in this game, and Texas will make them one dimensional and know to expect pass most downs. That will allow Texas to bring confusing looks, dial up blitzes, or drop everyone back and still get pressure with their front 4.
I think Mizzou will have a difficult time moving the ball in this game on the road.
Texas is 8-2 ATS in games after the Oklahoma game, and 10-0 SU. It shows they do not have letdowns after this game, they can maintain their focus and Mac Brown gets his guys ready to play.
Texas has beaten Mizzou 4 straight times, and Texas has covered every single spread in their last 7 games and 9 of their last 10. Mizzou has not covered in 2 of their past 3 games, showing they have been overvalued and this game is no exception. Mizzou has only covered 2 of their past 5 games. This team is overvalued, Texas undervalued.
Mizzou is 5-1 this year, but none of their wins have been impressive and this is the best team they have faced by far. Illinois, SE Miz State, Nevada, Buffalo, Nebraska all wins are garbage. Their only loss came to the semblance of the first real team they have played all year OK ST.
Texas has not let their guard down yet, and they come out and make another statement here - getting everyone to drink the kool-ad.
Texas 38
Mizzou 30
The bounceback angle is one of the most overrated angles in handicapping and can only be applied to certain situations. This isnt one of them. Missouri lost last week, so suddenly they are going to get mad and win. It would be nice to add as one of many supporting facts to making a play, but is certainly not a strong enough angle to make it the basis for a play.
Texas off a big emotional win last week returns home to their home crowd and they get Missouri right where they want them. As much as I think Texas loses a game this season and maybe 2, it isnt here. You dont have letdowns and trip up on this game. You have a letdown and trip up when you think your work is done and you let your guard down and Texas has not let their guard down yet. They have a long gauntlet ahead of them and this isnt where they lose. Texas knows their work isnt done yet and these past two weeks with Oklahoma and Missouri have been circled on their calendar for a long time.
A very reasonable line to bet here at -4 vs. a Mizzou team with NO DEFENSE. The only offenses Mizzou has faced that are remotely close to Texas is Illinois first and OK State second and that resulted in 42 and 28 points given up respectively. I tend to lean to Illinois as mimicking the Longhorn offense the most as Juice and McCoy are running threats and OK State looks to run the ball, which isnt really Texas' style.
Longhorns at home with a similar offense to Illinois, I tend to think the Longhorns score 38+ in this game.
On the flipside, we saw a Mizzou offense out of sync last week, and they have yet to face any kind of a defense like Texas has. While Texas' defense was shown to be just okay last week, it is still the best defense that Mizzou has faced and will face all year. Chase Daniel will get pressure on him with Texas just rushing 4 defenders, and having everyone else dropped back into coverage. This will be a feeling Daniel has not seen much of. Texas is #4 in the country at stopping the run, so I dont see much balance at all for Mizzou in this game, and Texas will make them one dimensional and know to expect pass most downs. That will allow Texas to bring confusing looks, dial up blitzes, or drop everyone back and still get pressure with their front 4.
I think Mizzou will have a difficult time moving the ball in this game on the road.
Texas is 8-2 ATS in games after the Oklahoma game, and 10-0 SU. It shows they do not have letdowns after this game, they can maintain their focus and Mac Brown gets his guys ready to play.
Texas has beaten Mizzou 4 straight times, and Texas has covered every single spread in their last 7 games and 9 of their last 10. Mizzou has not covered in 2 of their past 3 games, showing they have been overvalued and this game is no exception. Mizzou has only covered 2 of their past 5 games. This team is overvalued, Texas undervalued.
Mizzou is 5-1 this year, but none of their wins have been impressive and this is the best team they have faced by far. Illinois, SE Miz State, Nevada, Buffalo, Nebraska all wins are garbage. Their only loss came to the semblance of the first real team they have played all year OK ST.
Texas has not let their guard down yet, and they come out and make another statement here - getting everyone to drink the kool-ad.
Texas 38
Mizzou 30
I obviously like Bama to cover the 11, otherwise I wouldnt bet them.
That being said 11 is a key number, and if you get 11.5, you might as well get 13 while you are at it. If it was me, I'd cut it down to a 1* play and buy the .5 point.
I lean to LSU tonight. Their QBs are not as bad as everyone is making them seem. Their defense was not as bad as it showed. Miles is a cocky guy who knows he has athletes and he tried to play Florida straight up man to man and not create any havoc. You cant do that with FL. You can do that with SCarolina, and LSUs defense will fare much better tonight and I think they try to get back to their ground game and wear down the Cocks.
All that being said, I have no play on the game as of now, so take it for what its worth.
got to disagree with the major advantage Bama has in the trenches...Ole Miss has 4 first round potential guy 2 on the offensive line and 2 on the defensive line...not giving Ole Miss trenches enough respect IMO. I know you know your shat and are a great capper so it pains me to be against you here but this Ole Miss team is still gettting nor respect by the linesmakers...this should be in the single digits. GL on the rest with you on the Aggies
Your points well taken regarding Ole Miss' line, but let's not go overboard on 1st rounders. Michael Oher and Greg Hardy are the main 2 that have a chance at the first round. After that Peria Jerry is a 2/3, and then a 4th round or later for anyone else.
Bama matches that up with that with Smith and Caldwell, and Cody. But they have more depth, better overall talent.
My point was, and I agree that Ole Miss doesnt get enough respect, but Ole Miss' game is the trenches and the only team that outmatches them (and even for your sake MATCHES them) in the trenches is Bama. And that is going to take away the major strength of this Ole Miss team, and Bama overmatches them everywhere else.
Again, whether we agree about the lines or not, my point was more along the lines that Bama can match up with Ole Miss in the trenches and the word "major" was supposed to imply to all categories listed after, not just trenches.
Anyway GL
Miami is the better team but playing on the road and wont be inspired vs. Duke, especially with Wake on deck. This is a Duke or no play because Miami cant get any offense going right now and this is Duke's Super Bowl. Miami is like Clemson, lots of talent, no idea what to do with it and we need to see Miami settle in before figuring out what team they are - which appears to be great defense no offense (under team).
The word "over" and Va Tech in the same sentence makes me cringe, but havent looked at it much bc I've only seen 1 half of a BC game this year nd dont feel comfortable betting on them or against them yet.
Hope this helps a bit.
