Hi llabb,
How are you? We havent talked since I got slaughtered on Saw3 with my brilliant polish middle
As always, I like your analysis and I dont doubt this can go over, although I think it is highly unlikely. However, I dont think this movie lends well to comps and there are precious few true religious movies with wide releases to compare to. I pulled all movies in the db with religious themes and there is simply not enough to make me feel comfortable with comps and most of the movies you listed are quasi religious films at best.
I think the best comp of a pure religious movie is probably, "The Prince of Eygpt" in 1998, which opened +3000 theaters in december for $14M. I am guessing that is $20M or so inflation adjusted. That movie had awesome reviews, big star power, great buzz, and was dreamworks.
I just dont think it is possible to analyze the church going crowd as there is not enough info.
How are you? We havent talked since I got slaughtered on Saw3 with my brilliant polish middle
As always, I like your analysis and I dont doubt this can go over, although I think it is highly unlikely. However, I dont think this movie lends well to comps and there are precious few true religious movies with wide releases to compare to. I pulled all movies in the db with religious themes and there is simply not enough to make me feel comfortable with comps and most of the movies you listed are quasi religious films at best.
I think the best comp of a pure religious movie is probably, "The Prince of Eygpt" in 1998, which opened +3000 theaters in december for $14M. I am guessing that is $20M or so inflation adjusted. That movie had awesome reviews, big star power, great buzz, and was dreamworks.
I just dont think it is possible to analyze the church going crowd as there is not enough info.
Hey llabb
I dont know if this movie is going to go over or not
BUT
Your write up was so damn convincing that I'm going to have a little "faith" and throw down a big 50 to win 92 on over 14.5.
Goooo Christians:thumbsup:http://forum2.therx.com/editpost.php?do=editpost&p=3500854
Edit/Delete Message
I dont know if this movie is going to go over or not
BUT
Your write up was so damn convincing that I'm going to have a little "faith" and throw down a big 50 to win 92 on over 14.5.
Goooo Christians:thumbsup:http://forum2.therx.com/editpost.php?do=editpost&p=3500854
Edit/Delete Message
I am normally one to say that Intertops movie lines completely suck, and that they try to trick people into taking their +115 ranges that are not true over/unders. But there does appear to be a quality arb on Turistas.
Intertops $1-4 mil is at +115, and Pinny Over 4 mil is at +odds. I took it for +150, and it's +134 now. Any +odds is pretty much an arb, though.
The only risk is Turistas going Under $1 mil, and that's so terribly low that even I will discount that as almost impossible. It would be an 0.6k PTA for the weekend, and I don't know of any major wide releases that ever been that low, it's probably a 0.1% chance.
With the Over at +150, it was a 15.6% ROI arb, and with it at +134 it's a 12.1% ROI arb, which is great for a 3-day return. And Intertops max is now $275, better than some of their other $55 or $110 props. That is decent for a free 60-80 bucks, or a Bonus Play on one side up to $200 won for virtually zero risk.
So take Pinny Turistas Over $4 mil at +odds (actually, down to -114 would be arb), and Intertops $1 million to $4 million for +115.
So, adding:
1* Turista arb (5* quality, but limited max)
Intertops $1-4 mil is at +115, and Pinny Over 4 mil is at +odds. I took it for +150, and it's +134 now. Any +odds is pretty much an arb, though.
The only risk is Turistas going Under $1 mil, and that's so terribly low that even I will discount that as almost impossible. It would be an 0.6k PTA for the weekend, and I don't know of any major wide releases that ever been that low, it's probably a 0.1% chance.
With the Over at +150, it was a 15.6% ROI arb, and with it at +134 it's a 12.1% ROI arb, which is great for a 3-day return. And Intertops max is now $275, better than some of their other $55 or $110 props. That is decent for a free 60-80 bucks, or a Bonus Play on one side up to $200 won for virtually zero risk.
So take Pinny Turistas Over $4 mil at +odds (actually, down to -114 would be arb), and Intertops $1 million to $4 million for +115.
So, adding:
1* Turista arb (5* quality, but limited max)
Bets are in and lines are closed, but just a few followup thoughts:
All: Be careful with future Intertops lines. They often look deceptively good, but you usually need to take both parts of a line, the midrange and the extreme end of the line, and combine them to get a true line. For example, a movie with a Pinny line of O/U 10 might be on Intertops something like the following ranges: 7-10 at +115, 10-13 at +115, 7 or less at +200, and 14 or more at +400. Here, it looks reasonable, but if you calculate them together, the Under 10 is actually -400, and the Over 10 is actually -200. So use ArbCentral or Scalpulator to calculate your true line, and usually avoid Intertops lines unless you are really, really good at knnowing the exact %'s of likelihood that a movie should hit a certain range.
3D: I agree that THR is not very useful. Just another set of predictions. Unless they cite special sources, they're just giving out projections which are based on common knowledge and current groupthink estimations.
Utah: Good to see you back in the movie and prop biz. Your Bodog post is pretty good. I agree that there are no exact comps for this movie, as most Christian films have small theater counts, and the one wide release that is the Passion, was an atypical mega-blockbuster. But other than Narnia and perhaps Facing the Giants, all of the movies I listed there are specifically Christian films, especially this year's releases, End of the Spear and One Night with the King, which I think are the best comps (and then you have to extrapolate how the PTA will hold up when going from a 1k tc release to a 3k tc).
Mag: Thanks, just giving my thoughts and assessment. Nativity could very well go Under, as a lot of people are predicting, but at +200, there's no question in my mind what the right side of the wager is, win or lose. The most recent projections, presumably based on studio projections, have it expected to come in the high teens.
All: Be careful with future Intertops lines. They often look deceptively good, but you usually need to take both parts of a line, the midrange and the extreme end of the line, and combine them to get a true line. For example, a movie with a Pinny line of O/U 10 might be on Intertops something like the following ranges: 7-10 at +115, 10-13 at +115, 7 or less at +200, and 14 or more at +400. Here, it looks reasonable, but if you calculate them together, the Under 10 is actually -400, and the Over 10 is actually -200. So use ArbCentral or Scalpulator to calculate your true line, and usually avoid Intertops lines unless you are really, really good at knnowing the exact %'s of likelihood that a movie should hit a certain range.
3D: I agree that THR is not very useful. Just another set of predictions. Unless they cite special sources, they're just giving out projections which are based on common knowledge and current groupthink estimations.
Utah: Good to see you back in the movie and prop biz. Your Bodog post is pretty good. I agree that there are no exact comps for this movie, as most Christian films have small theater counts, and the one wide release that is the Passion, was an atypical mega-blockbuster. But other than Narnia and perhaps Facing the Giants, all of the movies I listed there are specifically Christian films, especially this year's releases, End of the Spear and One Night with the King, which I think are the best comps (and then you have to extrapolate how the PTA will hold up when going from a 1k tc release to a 3k tc).
Mag: Thanks, just giving my thoughts and assessment. Nativity could very well go Under, as a lot of people are predicting, but at +200, there's no question in my mind what the right side of the wager is, win or lose. The most recent projections, presumably based on studio projections, have it expected to come in the high teens.
But boy am I wishing I had played and shorted VWLD2... -- NF
hmmm will be interesting to see how this one ends up playing out....
heres the news on the others...
"Insanely early relative numbers: VWLD2: 26.8K BOBBY: 19.5K
NATVT: 98.5K
wow, NATVT really looks like a bomb.
In comparison to VWLD2 and TURIS, it's not, but it would truly have to have freakish Sat & Sun increases to be a long."
hmmm will be interesting to see how this one ends up playing out....
heres the news on the others...
"Insanely early relative numbers: VWLD2: 26.8K BOBBY: 19.5K
NATVT: 98.5K
wow, NATVT really looks like a bomb.
In comparison to VWLD2 and TURIS, it's not, but it would truly have to have freakish Sat & Sun increases to be a long."
Early Friday's #s:
NATVT 2.41
TURIS 1.28
VWLD2 903K
Nativity is toast. Even with 6x multiplier it would miss.
Van Wilder is toast. Why didnt I bet more at the insane +200 odds?
Turistas is likely toast as it would need a 3.1x multiplier, which isnt going to happen for a movie like this. It will likely end in the 3-3.5 range like hpark1 stated. Dang, this movie just needed a bit more to go over.
NATVT 2.41
TURIS 1.28
VWLD2 903K
Nativity is toast. Even with 6x multiplier it would miss.
Van Wilder is toast. Why didnt I bet more at the insane +200 odds?
Turistas is likely toast as it would need a 3.1x multiplier, which isnt going to happen for a movie like this. It will likely end in the 3-3.5 range like hpark1 stated. Dang, this movie just needed a bit more to go over.
if your blindly betting unders your cleaning up
touristas surprised me i must say...i thought it was a hostel type movie that people would see...guess not...
i know i went light on vw2 but i said the line shoulda been flipflopped...under shoulda been -200 for that movie...the tradional slow weekend at the movies bc of holiday shopping (downtown boston was PACKED with people last night shopping and it was RAINING)...the bars were full the stores were full...people were not going to the movies...the Rrating...the lack of buzz and names...
who the hell was betting VW2 over at pinny...id love to know...
free beer money for me this week WOO-HOO!!! lololol
touristas surprised me i must say...i thought it was a hostel type movie that people would see...guess not...
i know i went light on vw2 but i said the line shoulda been flipflopped...under shoulda been -200 for that movie...the tradional slow weekend at the movies bc of holiday shopping (downtown boston was PACKED with people last night shopping and it was RAINING)...the bars were full the stores were full...people were not going to the movies...the Rrating...the lack of buzz and names...
who the hell was betting VW2 over at pinny...id love to know...
free beer money for me this week WOO-HOO!!! lololol
