Booming jobs and falling gas prices make this the best economy in 15 years

Search

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
So what do you think will happen to the assets that have already spiked when rates raise , or do you think they can just stay cheap forever?

You obviously have a better understanding of the financial markets. I focus more on banking, money and the monetary system. Looking at it from that angle all the stuff the Fed and Treasury does seems very logical to me. How bubbles within sectors form and why the Fed couldn't figure out the housing market was on verge of an epic collapse is beyond me. So all I know is on a macro level, there is nothing really connecting interest rates with credit. Just like there is nothing connecting credit with reserves, one of the reasons from the beginning I have said QE would do very little for the economy and definitely would not cause this massive hyperinflation and 5k gold that psycho Joe and his buddy were predicting.

In fact, Austrian economists were so wrong about what was going to happen after the crisis that I can't see how any objective economic student in the world could take that theory seriously.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
So you post a link and quote as a "fact"... but it is only what they "believe"?.

So how is it a fact?

So there is no proof that all those "millions" of jobs were created? No proof that those millions of jobs were "saved"?

So, technically, today, I created and save quite a dozen myself.

No, there is proof that jobs were created in terms of actual people getting paychecks from the Treasury. If the question is created relative to a starting figure or relative to a theory on how many jobs there would have been without the stimulus, that comes down to models and theories... which you will clearly not accept, so there is no point in going down that road.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
Pretty much describes Sheriff Joe's econ theories perfectly... aka Austrian Economics... which is pretty much a cult.

Pseudoscience is a claim, belief or practice which is presented as scientific, but does not adhere to a valid scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, cannot be reliably tested, or otherwise lacks scientific status.[SUP][1][/SUP] Pseudoscience is often characterized by the use of vague, contradictory, exaggerated or unprovable claims, an over-reliance on confirmation rather than rigorous attempts at refutation, a lack of openness to evaluation by other experts, and a general absence of systematic processes to rationally develop theories.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
Hahaha, pretty much a perfect example of brucefan. A dude who was so blatantly wrong about his predictions has the ability to claim he was right all along. It's amazing how Austrians can actually believe the shit they spew.
-------------------------------------

As everyone now knows, Rothbard was wrong. (He also predicted that there would be apocalyptic bank runs, which was also wrong.) He was wrong because he did not understand how modern banking systems work. But that is a side-issue. What is key here is that he made a very specific prediction and it turned out to be incorrect. After the bailouts the US experienced neither “immediate runaway inflation” or “a massive flight from the dollar”. And yet here’s the most amazing thing: I have encountered that quote (more than once) as proof that Rothbard was correct and he saw it all coming!


Just look at this Mises.org post entitled ‘Rothbard saw the future’ written by this rather unusual individual (who also seems to have also written an essay rationalising drinking liquor in the morning). Incredible!


You would think that a rational person, after reading that would inquire into why Rothbard had gotten it so wrong. But no, not the libertarians. Instead, the cult devotee takes the quote and shamelessly presents it as evidence to his intellectual adversary that his views are correct. Imagine if we could all walk around showing our failures to our opponents and claiming that they were victory. “Logic be damned, even when I’m wrong I’m right!”


These are the popular manifestations of the libertarian ideology. This is what happens when a political cult forms. There are many other examples – indeed, the libertarian style is often an adoption of one of the above positions: either an attempt to lull the opponent into a metaphysical shouting match or an attempt to pass off a watery, unverifiable quote as truth about a given issue or to shamelessly display a failed theory or prediction and claim it as an intellectual victory. And all of this stems out of the same phenomenon: a closed mind.


Libertarians are typically narrow and closed minded individuals. They are in search of Absolute Truths about the world and when they have posited them to themselves these Truths enter an intellectual sphere where they are beyond empirical reproach. For all their hatred of primitivism, the libertarians are the primitive ones. They have not yet entered into the civilised world of disinterested, factual argument. They remain stuck in an adolescence filled with value judgements, vague predictions (that are often incorrect) and metaphysical proclamations.


Andrew Dittmer has pinpointed this tendency in the sixth part his excellent ‘interview’ series on libertarianism. The libertarians even have a pseudo-rational name for this proud perversion of the scientific method: praxeology. Praxeology is to the libertarians as diamat was to the Marxist-Leninists; an a priori pseudo-philosophy that allows them to ignore unwelcome evidence and insulate themselves from criticism.
 

Rx Normal
Joined
Oct 23, 2013
Messages
52,669
Tokens
By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer living in Dublin, Ireland

Nobody cares except for fat, alcoholic losers who need the government to do everything for them, including wiping their ass!

"I read academic papers!" LMFAO!

Loser!@#0
 

Rx Normal
Joined
Oct 23, 2013
Messages
52,669
Tokens
jobs_110613_stimuluschart.jpg


but, but, but....the models said it would work!

And to think these Keynesian clowns were calling for Stimulus 2.0!!

face)(*^%
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
but, but, but....the models said it would work!

And to think these Keynesian clowns were calling for Stimulus 2.0!!

face)(*^%

Sheriff Joe 2009: "30 days from now, the Dow will be 5000 or lower -- book it. Thank you Barry and Barney for destroying America!"

Sheriff Joe 2010: "The fan is definitely on but the shit hasn't hit it yet."

Sheriff Joe 2010: referencing: "Dow Faces Bouncy Ride to 5,000"
 

New member
Joined
Oct 29, 2010
Messages
40,880
Tokens
Sheriff Joe 2009: "30 days from now, the Dow will be 5000 or lower -- book it. Thank you Barry and Barney for destroying America!"Sheriff Joe 2010: "The fan is definitely on but the shit hasn't hit it yet."Sheriff Joe 2010: referencing: "Dow Faces Bouncy Ride to 5,000"
Lmao. Don't forget Fred Thompson, gold prices and the upcoming earth shattering birther news. Lol. Dude is always wrong. Poor Walter is an internet laughingstock. Imagine what is real life is like?
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
Lmao. Don't forget Fred Thompson, gold prices and the upcoming earth shattering birther news. Lol. Dude is always wrong. Poor Walter is an internet laughingstock. Imagine what is real life is like?

And he still believes he's right. It's a crazy phenomenon in these conservatives/libertarians. Their cult has them by the balls and there is just nothing that will make them any smarter. It's just pure brainwashing. I mean look how dumb Joe has been through the years and he still hasn't realized it. That's a level of stupidity you can't fix.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2007
Messages
31,719
Tokens
You obviously have a better understanding of the financial markets. I focus more on banking, money and the monetary system. Looking at it from that angle all the stuff the Fed and Treasury does seems very logical to me. How bubbles within sectors form and why the Fed couldn't figure out the housing market was on verge of an epic collapse is beyond me. So all I know is on a macro level, there is nothing really connecting interest rates with credit. Just like there is nothing connecting credit with reserves, one of the reasons from the beginning I have said QE would do very little for the economy and definitely would not cause this massive hyperinflation and 5k gold that psycho Joe and his buddy were predicting.

In fact, Austrian economists were so wrong about what was going to happen after the crisis that I can't see how any objective economic student in the world could take that theory seriously.

Well without going into further detail it doesn't seem like I'm going to convince you that interest rates being artificially low played a pivotal role in creating the demand which led to the housing collapse.


My guess is Bernanke knew housing was F'd and just couldn't really say it on TV given the weight of his words. Or atleast had an idea underwriting, assets deviating from fundamentals could cause a collapse. He probably just didn't know how far the exposure would spread but I'm sure he atleast knew sun belt real estate and lenders were screwed.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
Well without going into further detail it doesn't seem like I'm going to convince you that interest rates being artificially low played a pivotal role in creating the demand which led to the housing collapse.

My guess is Bernanke knew housing was F'd and just couldn't really say it on TV given the weight of his words. Or atleast had an idea underwriting, assets deviating from fundamentals could cause a collapse. He probably just didn't know how far the exposure would spread but I'm sure he atleast knew sun belt real estate and lenders were screwed.

I'm not arguing with your logic, I'm just saying the data does not fit with the logic. And they use the same graph you provided to show that there is no relationship. Pretty much exactly what I was saying...


"The link between interest rates and home prices is empirically pretty weak at best," says housing economist Tom Lawler. His analysis is frequently featured on the popular Calculated Risk blog. Although some researchers have tried to link home prices to inflation-adjusted interest rates, the result have been "mixed and ambiguous," according to Lawler.


Yale economist and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index godfather Robert Shiller agrees. "There is not a tight fit at all between the two: high mortgage rates do not translate automatically into low home prices," he says. In order to demonstrate his point, he provided the following data, which he compiled:

interest%20rates%20and%20home%20prices%20shiller-thumb-550x376-56453.png




Why Doesn't the Relationship Hold?

Tom Lawler also provides a little theory on why interest rates don't move home prices. He says that increasing mortgage rates generally do not occur in a vacuum, but often occur due to improving economic conditions and/or rising inflation expectations. Even though an increase in interest rates should logically drive down home prices, other factors in the economy that generally accompany those rising interest rates usually prevent that from occurring.


What economic factors might have an impact? Interest rates tend to rise when an economy is flourishing. In that scenario, two things are likely to be happening simultaneously: real wages and inflation will both be rising. Going back to the example from earlier, perhaps Buyer A got a raise at work or took better job and can now afford a $4,000 payment.


Another possibility was already mentioned: prices might just be sticky. Some homeowners might simply be unable to afford to sell their home at a much lower price, if their equity level is too low. In other cases, homeowners might simply not be willing to accept a big loss to their equity. After all, rising interest rates create a domino effect: if you sell your home, then you must buy a new one at a higher interest rate than you were probably paying before. If prices don't fall broadly and in proportion to the rise in rates, then you may have to downgrade your next home.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business...ing-interest-rates-affect-home-prices/241504/
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
Let's just put it like this... low interest rates made it easier for banks and wall street to pull off their scam.
 

Rx Normal
Joined
Oct 23, 2013
Messages
52,669
Tokens
Let's just put it like this... low interest rates made it easier for banks and wall street to pull off their scam.

The government created the environment of privatizing profits and socializing losses. That's what Fannie and Freddie were for and where all these junk mortgages ended up.

sr-gse-fannie-freddie-macro-chart-3.ashx


No Fannie and Freddie, no dumping ground for junk securities, no irresponsible behavior on Wall Street, no housing crisis.

Let's just put it this way...you're an idiot.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
35,366
Tokens
The government created the environment of privatizing profits and socializing losses. That's what Fannie and Freddie were for and where all these junk mortgages ended up.

No Fannie and Freddie, no housing crisis.

Let's just put it this way...you're an idiot.

Lol, debunked loon theories still 8 years after the fact. Gotta love them. Birther loons should never be trusted to have honest debates.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2007
Messages
31,719
Tokens
In 2003 there is already irrational exuberance surrounding real estate, press clippings touting it as the best thing ever, stories of rags to riches all over the financial media, etc....By any reasonable estimation we can say in hindsight, it is a bubble forming (obviously if we could pick which bubbles would pop we would all be rich as that is easier said than done)

Then at the height of this hysteria, you cut rates and make the cost of speculation for investors and institutions alike even cheaper. You pretty much remove a major barrier to entry and get a bubble.

The problem with a chart like that is it isn't apples to apples because no two time periods are identical. If you just look at 2003 and then do some other research, you can see this is what happened. There are plenty of legitimate publications that put part of the bubble on artificially low rates.

As the cost of capital got abnormally cheaper with rates at lows not seen since post-WW2, this stoked demand.

It's like you think I'm speaking a foreign language because studies can't conclusively prove this.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2007
Messages
31,719
Tokens
The government created the environment of privatizing profits and socializing losses. That's what Fannie and Freddie were for and where all these junk mortgages ended up.

sr-gse-fannie-freddie-macro-chart-3.ashx


No Fannie and Freddie, no dumping ground for junk securities, no irresponsible behavior on Wall Street, no housing crisis.

Let's just put it this way...you're an idiot.

We've had this conversation before but a lot of MBS/CDS was bought by private investors. Most of the MBS was priced based on previous foreclosure rates which were really low so it looked like a good deal.

I agree with you the gov't is to blame but I'm not sure why you don't think good ol fashion greed can cause bubbles either?

Just a few years earlier tech companies having 200 P/E ratios a good example of this.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,121,026
Messages
13,590,280
Members
101,044
Latest member
danielbroughton
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com