Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 16 2007 10:10PM
Prediction: under
Reason: Ai Simulator 10* graded play Under PHL/LAD- AiS shows an 88% probability that 8 or fewer runs will be scored in this game. Both teams come into this game hitting well over their past 7 games, but this fact actually works quite strongly in favor of an under play based on the following system. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-10 and has made 19.1 units since 2001. Play under home teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 that is a red hot hitting team batting .300 or better over their last 20 games, after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs. This system is featuring LAD stats and the bullpen has been quite strong all season. Their bullpen sports a 3.39 ERA and a 1.192 WHIP for the season and a 3.64 ERA and a 1.382 WHIP over their past 7 games. They have recorded 291 K with just 97 BB and just 20 HR on the season spanning 3193 AB. Phils looked tired last night on ESPN, then had to board a flight to the West Coast; sure they picked up 3 hours, but they also had to fly during the wee hours of the morning too. Penny has been dominating and is certainly a NL Cy Young candidate with his 10-1 mark and 2.39 ERA. He had a poor last start versus Atlanta, but prior to that he had gone 5 straight games pitching 7+ innings and allowing just 1 ER with ZERO home runs. He is certainly a starter that can dominate arguably the best offense in the NL. Jamie Moyer gets the job done – plain and simple – with a wide array of off speed change ups and a “blazing” 83 MPH FB. He knows how to pitch period and is smart enough and crafty enough to get through the Dodger lineup. Phils allowed 10 runs to the Cardinals last night and this puts them in a very strong defensive mind set tonight. Note that they are 8-1 UNDER this season and 25-9 UNDER over the past 3 seasons after allowing 10 or more runs. They are also 15-2 UNDER after a loss
Ness Terrific Total
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Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Jul 16 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The Mariners (51-38) are in the thick of the AL playoff race, not to mention being MLB's biggest moneymakers at plus-$1,905, while the Orioles enter on a modest three-game winning streak but own just a 41-50 mark (19-28 on the road). In this lefty vs lefty matchup (Burress vs Ramirez), expect a high scoring game. Rookie Brian Burress of the Orioles has been ineffective over his last five starts, allowing 18 ERs in 26 innings for a 6.23 ERA. The Mariners should just 'love' this guy, as they are 17-7 (plus-$1,280) when facing lefties this year, averaging 5.1 RPG. In eight home night games vs left-handers, they are 7-1, averaging 5.8 RPG. Horacio Ramirez of Seattle is coming off the DL to pitch here (shoulder tendinitis), making his first start since May 24. His numbers in 2007 are somewhat unbelievable, in that he's 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA at home but 0-2 (team is 0-4) with a 13.22 ERA on the road. Of course he's at home here but note that in 28 games vs lefties in 2007, the Orioles have averaged 5.2 RPG. Magnificent Monday Total on Bal/Sea Over.
Lenny Del Genio
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Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Jul 16 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Play on the Blue Jays /Yanks Over at 7:05 ET. After losing eight of its last 10 games in June, New York (45-44) has won eight of 12 in July to move over .500 for the first time since it was 36-35 on June 22. The Yankees took three of four games at Tampa Bay over the weekend for their third straight series win. Kei Igawa (2-2, 7.14) will start for New York in search of his first win since April 28. The rookie left-hander gave up eight runs in his next outing and was sent to the minors to work on his mechanics. In three starts since his return to New York, he is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA. He gave up five runs in five innings against Minnesota on July 5, failing to register a decision in the Yankees' 7-6 victory. Toronto has hit lefties well all year, going 17-9 (plus-$850), while averaging 5.7 rpg. Toronto will start Josh Towers and while the Blue Jays have won each of the right-hander's last four outings, let's remember his ERA is 5.07 on the year. Towers is also 2-7 with a 4.62 ERA in 12 career games (eight starts) against the Yankees. My MLB Total of the Day is on Tor/NYY Over.
Tom Freese
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Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 16 2007 8:05PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: Milwaukee starter David Bush is in excellent form allowing 8 runs total in his last 4 starts. Bush is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona starter Micah Owings has been getting roughed up allowing 21 runs in his last 20.1 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have hit the skids losing 9 of their last 12 games. 10* Play On Milwaukee - (Bush vs. Owings)
Sebastian
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5* Philly
7* Giants
7* Cle run line
10* STL
10* Yanks Over
20* Sea Over
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 16 2007 10:10PM
Prediction: under
Reason: Ai Simulator 10* graded play Under PHL/LAD- AiS shows an 88% probability that 8 or fewer runs will be scored in this game. Both teams come into this game hitting well over their past 7 games, but this fact actually works quite strongly in favor of an under play based on the following system. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-10 and has made 19.1 units since 2001. Play under home teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 that is a red hot hitting team batting .300 or better over their last 20 games, after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs. This system is featuring LAD stats and the bullpen has been quite strong all season. Their bullpen sports a 3.39 ERA and a 1.192 WHIP for the season and a 3.64 ERA and a 1.382 WHIP over their past 7 games. They have recorded 291 K with just 97 BB and just 20 HR on the season spanning 3193 AB. Phils looked tired last night on ESPN, then had to board a flight to the West Coast; sure they picked up 3 hours, but they also had to fly during the wee hours of the morning too. Penny has been dominating and is certainly a NL Cy Young candidate with his 10-1 mark and 2.39 ERA. He had a poor last start versus Atlanta, but prior to that he had gone 5 straight games pitching 7+ innings and allowing just 1 ER with ZERO home runs. He is certainly a starter that can dominate arguably the best offense in the NL. Jamie Moyer gets the job done – plain and simple – with a wide array of off speed change ups and a “blazing” 83 MPH FB. He knows how to pitch period and is smart enough and crafty enough to get through the Dodger lineup. Phils allowed 10 runs to the Cardinals last night and this puts them in a very strong defensive mind set tonight. Note that they are 8-1 UNDER this season and 25-9 UNDER over the past 3 seasons after allowing 10 or more runs. They are also 15-2 UNDER after a loss
Ness Terrific Total
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Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Jul 16 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The Mariners (51-38) are in the thick of the AL playoff race, not to mention being MLB's biggest moneymakers at plus-$1,905, while the Orioles enter on a modest three-game winning streak but own just a 41-50 mark (19-28 on the road). In this lefty vs lefty matchup (Burress vs Ramirez), expect a high scoring game. Rookie Brian Burress of the Orioles has been ineffective over his last five starts, allowing 18 ERs in 26 innings for a 6.23 ERA. The Mariners should just 'love' this guy, as they are 17-7 (plus-$1,280) when facing lefties this year, averaging 5.1 RPG. In eight home night games vs left-handers, they are 7-1, averaging 5.8 RPG. Horacio Ramirez of Seattle is coming off the DL to pitch here (shoulder tendinitis), making his first start since May 24. His numbers in 2007 are somewhat unbelievable, in that he's 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA at home but 0-2 (team is 0-4) with a 13.22 ERA on the road. Of course he's at home here but note that in 28 games vs lefties in 2007, the Orioles have averaged 5.2 RPG. Magnificent Monday Total on Bal/Sea Over.
Lenny Del Genio
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Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Jul 16 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Play on the Blue Jays /Yanks Over at 7:05 ET. After losing eight of its last 10 games in June, New York (45-44) has won eight of 12 in July to move over .500 for the first time since it was 36-35 on June 22. The Yankees took three of four games at Tampa Bay over the weekend for their third straight series win. Kei Igawa (2-2, 7.14) will start for New York in search of his first win since April 28. The rookie left-hander gave up eight runs in his next outing and was sent to the minors to work on his mechanics. In three starts since his return to New York, he is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA. He gave up five runs in five innings against Minnesota on July 5, failing to register a decision in the Yankees' 7-6 victory. Toronto has hit lefties well all year, going 17-9 (plus-$850), while averaging 5.7 rpg. Toronto will start Josh Towers and while the Blue Jays have won each of the right-hander's last four outings, let's remember his ERA is 5.07 on the year. Towers is also 2-7 with a 4.62 ERA in 12 career games (eight starts) against the Yankees. My MLB Total of the Day is on Tor/NYY Over.
Tom Freese
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Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers Jul 16 2007 8:05PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: Milwaukee starter David Bush is in excellent form allowing 8 runs total in his last 4 starts. Bush is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona starter Micah Owings has been getting roughed up allowing 21 runs in his last 20.1 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have hit the skids losing 9 of their last 12 games. 10* Play On Milwaukee - (Bush vs. Owings)
Sebastian
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5* Philly
7* Giants
7* Cle run line
10* STL
10* Yanks Over
20* Sea Over
Over/Under Hotline
St. Louis OVER
Winning Margin
3* NY Mets
Philadelphia Wiseguys
NY Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Las Vegas Money Moves
Seattle Mariners
California Sports
4* NY Mets
Lenny Stevens
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
The Underdog
Philadelphia Phillies
Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner (17-4 run with Wipeout Winners since May 6!)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. For the second straight year, Brad Penny has had an outstanding first half. He makes his first start of the second half tonight, with hopes of NOT repeating last year's second-half collapse. Penny went 10-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 18 first-half starts this year (his plus-$891 ranks 4th among starters) after going 10-2 with a 2.91 ERA and earning the starting nod in the All-Star game in 2006. He was the second pitcher used in this year's contest, pitching one perfect inning. The right-hander's second half of last year was a completely different story. He went 6-7 with a 6.25 ERA in 15 outings after the break and didn't even get a start in the postseason for Los Angeles since he was limited by a bad back. Penny was originally scheduled to start Saturday at San Francisco, but was pushed back due to a blister on his right index finger. That blister caused him some concern in his last outing (July 5 vs Atlanta), when he allowed nine hits and six ERs in four innings. Couple that start with a 5/18 outing at the LAA and Penny's allowed 17 of his 31 ERs this season in just TWO starts! He's allowed two ERs or less 14 times this season and is 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA at Dodger Stadium (team is 7-3). After a three-game sweep at San Fran, LA owns the NL's best record (52-40), while the Phillies are off a 10-2 loss to the Cards, the franchise's 10,000th loss (listen to Ness Noise!). The 44-year-old Jamie Moyer starts for the Phillies, making his first start in Dodger Stadium since 1999. He's had a so-so year in '07 (7-7 with a 4.44 ERA) and has not been sharp recently. In his last three starts, he's lasted 17.2 innings, allowing 20 hits and 12 ERs (6.11). That doesn't bode well vs a LA team that's 17-8 (plus-$775) vs left-handers this year, averaging a solid 5.3 RPG. Weekly Wipeout Winner on the LA Dodgers.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer's MLB Bailout Game of the Week! -- 8-1, 89%!
I'm laying the price with the Dodgers on Monday. The Phillies make the cross-country journey after ending their weekend series with a 10-2 loss to St. Louis. Tonight, they send veteran Jamie Moyer to the hill. The lefty is taking on a Dodger team that has clubbed southpaws this season for almost six RPG in home night games, and they're 17-8 against lefties, overall. The Phils have dropped three straight Moyer starts. In those games, he's allowed 12 earned runs & 28 base runners in 17 2/3 IP, for a 6.10 ERA & 1.58 WHIP. Los Angeles counters with Brad Penny, who'll be looking for a quick rebound after losing to ATL last time out. In the previous five games before that defeat, Penny had allowed only five earned runs and 32 base runners in 36 2/3 IP, for a 1.23 ERA & 0.87 WHIP. The Dodgers are 14-4 in Penny's 18 starts this season, 7-3 at home, and 13-4 in night games. L.A. is also 40-22 when favored. At the same time, Philadelphia has dropped 22 of 30 when installed as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue on Monday. The Dodgers are my NL Bailout GOW. Thanks! GL! Scott.
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St. Louis OVER
Winning Margin
3* NY Mets
Philadelphia Wiseguys
NY Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Las Vegas Money Moves
Seattle Mariners
California Sports
4* NY Mets
Lenny Stevens
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
The Underdog
Philadelphia Phillies
Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner (17-4 run with Wipeout Winners since May 6!)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. For the second straight year, Brad Penny has had an outstanding first half. He makes his first start of the second half tonight, with hopes of NOT repeating last year's second-half collapse. Penny went 10-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 18 first-half starts this year (his plus-$891 ranks 4th among starters) after going 10-2 with a 2.91 ERA and earning the starting nod in the All-Star game in 2006. He was the second pitcher used in this year's contest, pitching one perfect inning. The right-hander's second half of last year was a completely different story. He went 6-7 with a 6.25 ERA in 15 outings after the break and didn't even get a start in the postseason for Los Angeles since he was limited by a bad back. Penny was originally scheduled to start Saturday at San Francisco, but was pushed back due to a blister on his right index finger. That blister caused him some concern in his last outing (July 5 vs Atlanta), when he allowed nine hits and six ERs in four innings. Couple that start with a 5/18 outing at the LAA and Penny's allowed 17 of his 31 ERs this season in just TWO starts! He's allowed two ERs or less 14 times this season and is 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA at Dodger Stadium (team is 7-3). After a three-game sweep at San Fran, LA owns the NL's best record (52-40), while the Phillies are off a 10-2 loss to the Cards, the franchise's 10,000th loss (listen to Ness Noise!). The 44-year-old Jamie Moyer starts for the Phillies, making his first start in Dodger Stadium since 1999. He's had a so-so year in '07 (7-7 with a 4.44 ERA) and has not been sharp recently. In his last three starts, he's lasted 17.2 innings, allowing 20 hits and 12 ERs (6.11). That doesn't bode well vs a LA team that's 17-8 (plus-$775) vs left-handers this year, averaging a solid 5.3 RPG. Weekly Wipeout Winner on the LA Dodgers.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer's MLB Bailout Game of the Week! -- 8-1, 89%!
I'm laying the price with the Dodgers on Monday. The Phillies make the cross-country journey after ending their weekend series with a 10-2 loss to St. Louis. Tonight, they send veteran Jamie Moyer to the hill. The lefty is taking on a Dodger team that has clubbed southpaws this season for almost six RPG in home night games, and they're 17-8 against lefties, overall. The Phils have dropped three straight Moyer starts. In those games, he's allowed 12 earned runs & 28 base runners in 17 2/3 IP, for a 6.10 ERA & 1.58 WHIP. Los Angeles counters with Brad Penny, who'll be looking for a quick rebound after losing to ATL last time out. In the previous five games before that defeat, Penny had allowed only five earned runs and 32 base runners in 36 2/3 IP, for a 1.23 ERA & 0.87 WHIP. The Dodgers are 14-4 in Penny's 18 starts this season, 7-3 at home, and 13-4 in night games. L.A. is also 40-22 when favored. At the same time, Philadelphia has dropped 22 of 30 when installed as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue on Monday. The Dodgers are my NL Bailout GOW. Thanks! GL! Scott.
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Scott Spreitzer's Monday Night MLB Knockout! -- 8-1, 89% L9 Sides!
I'm laying the price with the Brewers on Monday. These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum as of late with tonight's hurlers on the bump. Milwaukee is 4-1 in Bush's last five outings. The righty has allowed just 11 earned runs in 30 2/3 IP for a 3.22 ERA to go along with a decent 1.34 WHIP. He also owns a fantastic 1.15 WHIP in eight home starts this season and I believe those great numbers are about to pay big dividends. Meanwhile, the D'backs counter with Micah Owings. Overall, it looks as though these two starters are almost dead even. But dig a little deeper and you'll see that Owings has been tagged for a 7.90 ERA & 1.83 WHIP away from home. Arizona has lost each of his last three starts. In those outings, the righty has allowed 14 ER & 27 BR in just 14 2/3 IP, for an 8.57 ERA & 1.84 WHIP. The D'backs have been outscored by a combined, 29-2 in the three losses. And while Arizona is 18-27 as a pup, the Brewers are 38-20 as a favorite. They're also 32-14 at Miller Park. We'll back the better team with a pitcher in much better form on Monday night. Milwaukee is my 15* Absolute Knockout! Thanks! GL! Scott.
Trev Rogers
Colorado -115
Michael Cannon
Lay the chalk with the Dodgers tonight when they host the Phillies.
This is a very fair price, considering the Dodgers are starting Brad Penny. The right-hander checks in with a 10-1 record and a 2.39 ERA in 18 games this season. He's 7-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 18 career games against the Phillies.
Jamie Moyer will start for Philadelphia and the ancient one has struggled over his last three games, going 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA. The left-hander is 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 10 lifetime games against the Dodgers.
Take the Dodgers as they keep rolling with the home win tonight.
3♦ LA DODGERS
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I'm laying the price with the Brewers on Monday. These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum as of late with tonight's hurlers on the bump. Milwaukee is 4-1 in Bush's last five outings. The righty has allowed just 11 earned runs in 30 2/3 IP for a 3.22 ERA to go along with a decent 1.34 WHIP. He also owns a fantastic 1.15 WHIP in eight home starts this season and I believe those great numbers are about to pay big dividends. Meanwhile, the D'backs counter with Micah Owings. Overall, it looks as though these two starters are almost dead even. But dig a little deeper and you'll see that Owings has been tagged for a 7.90 ERA & 1.83 WHIP away from home. Arizona has lost each of his last three starts. In those outings, the righty has allowed 14 ER & 27 BR in just 14 2/3 IP, for an 8.57 ERA & 1.84 WHIP. The D'backs have been outscored by a combined, 29-2 in the three losses. And while Arizona is 18-27 as a pup, the Brewers are 38-20 as a favorite. They're also 32-14 at Miller Park. We'll back the better team with a pitcher in much better form on Monday night. Milwaukee is my 15* Absolute Knockout! Thanks! GL! Scott.
Trev Rogers
Colorado -115
Michael Cannon
Lay the chalk with the Dodgers tonight when they host the Phillies.
This is a very fair price, considering the Dodgers are starting Brad Penny. The right-hander checks in with a 10-1 record and a 2.39 ERA in 18 games this season. He's 7-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 18 career games against the Phillies.
Jamie Moyer will start for Philadelphia and the ancient one has struggled over his last three games, going 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA. The left-hander is 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 10 lifetime games against the Dodgers.
Take the Dodgers as they keep rolling with the home win tonight.
3♦ LA DODGERS
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Monday, July 16th
National League
St. Louis at Florida, 7:05 EST
Braden Looper (R) vs. Byung-Hyun Kim (R)
Looper: St. Louis 10-1 Over away off BB Overs
Kim: Florida 19-32 SU as a favorite of -125 or less
70-Dime Home Run Club from Alex Smart
Cincinnati at Atlanta, 7:05 EST
Bobby Livingston (L) vs. Kyle Davies (R)
Livingston: Cincinnati 14-31 SU after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Davies: Atlanta 11-1 Over off 4+ wins
Colorado at Pittsburgh, 7:05 EST
Taylor Buchholz (R) vs. John Van Benschoten (R)
Buchholz: Colorado 10-28 SU away vs. NL Central opponents
Van Benschoten: Pittsburgh 12-6 SU after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Houston at Washington, 7:05 EST
Woody Williams (R) vs. Mike Bacsik (L)
Williams: Houston 2-13 SU away off BB losses
Bacsik: 10-2 Under as an underdog of +150 or less
Astros-Nationals Winner from Brian Hansen
(TC) San Francisco at Chicago Cubs, 7:05 EST ESPN
Tim Lincecum (R) vs. Rich Hill (L)
Lincecum: San Francisco 27-13 SU on Mondays
Hill: Cubs 1-9 SU off 3+ division wins
Arizona at Milwaukee, 8:05 EST
Micah Owings (R) vs. Dave Bush (R)
Owings: Arizona 1-9 SU off a division loss scoring 1 or 0 runs
Bush: Milwaukee 22-6 SU at home vs. NL Central opponents
MLB 10* Side Winner from Tom Freese
NY Mets at San Diego, 10:05 EST
Jorge Sosa (R) vs. David Wells (L)
Sosa: 14-3 TSR pitching off BB team wins
Wells: San Diego 22-10 Under off BB road games
Philadelphia at LA Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Brad Penny (R)
Moyer: Philadelphia 8-22 SU as an underdog
Penny: 20-7 Over in home games
American League
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 7:05 EST
John Danks (L) vs. Cliff Lee (L)
Danks: White Sox 9-18 SU vs. left-handed starters
Lee: Cleveland 30-10 SU as a home favorite
Kansas City at Boston, 7:05 EST
Brian Bannister (R) vs. Kason Gabbard (L)
Bannister: Kansas City 9-41 SU away vs. AL East opponents
Gabbard: Boston 12-2 SU after scoring 1 or 0 runs
Toronto at NY Yankees, 7:05 EST
Josh Towers (R) vs. Kei Igawa (L)
Towers: Toronto 8-4 SU on Mondays
Igawa: Yankees 11-18 SU vs. division opponents
Baltimore at Seattle, 10:05 EST
Brian Burres (L) vs. Horacio Ramirez (L)
Burres: Baltimore 19-49 SU as an underdog of +125 to +175
Ramirez: Seattle 14-3 SU as a home favorite of -125 to -175
MLB System of the Year from Carlo Campanella
Texas at Oakland, 10:05 EST
Jamey Wright (R) vs. Dallas Braden (L)
Wright: Texas 2-10 SU off a one-run win
Braden: Oakland 40-18 Under vs. right-handed starters
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Hot Pitchers
-- Kim is 1-0, 2.19 in his last couple starts.
-- Lincecum is 2-0, 2.68 in his last three starts.
-- Bush is 3-1, 2.73 in his last four starts.
-- DWells is 2-1, 2.67 in his last six home starts.
-- Penny is 5-0, 2.25 in his last nine starts.
-- Indians won four of last five Lee starts.
-- Gabbard is 2-0, 4.87 in four starts for the Red Sox. Royals are
5-2 in last seven Bannister starts; they scored 0,1 in the losses.
-- Toronto won last four Towers starts, scoring 26 runs.
Cold Pitchers
-- Looper is 1-4, 8.13 in his last six starts.
-- Livingston is 1-0, 3.75 in two starts, but last one was June 1.
-- Davies is 1-4, 7.31 in his last six starts.
-- Buchholz is 1-2, 5.68 in last four starts; last one was June 1st. Van Benschoten is 0-3, 5.79 in five starts this season.
-- Williams is 0-4, 6.43 in his last five road starts. Bacsik is 1-6 in his last eight starts, with a 6.26 RA.
-- Hill is 0-2, 7.40 in his last five starts.
-- Owings is 0-3, 10.43 in his last three starts.
-- Sosa was 0-2, 7.65 in last four starts before going on DL.
-- Moyer is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts.
-- Danks is 1-1, 4.85 in his last five road starts.
-- Igawa is 0-1, 8.55 in his last four starts.
-- Burres is 1-1, 7.40 in his last four starts. Ramirez has 7.51 RA in his eight starts, but Mariners split the eight games.
-- Braden is 0-3, 9.22 in his last three starts. Wright is 2-2, 5.55 in five starts this season.
Totals
-- Over is 8-3 in Florida's last eleven home games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in Atlanta's last nine home games.
-- Over is 9-4 in Colorado's last thirteen road games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Houston's last dozen road games.
-- Eight of last ten games at Wrigley Field went over the total.
-- Under is 5-0-2 in last seven Arizona road games.
-- Six of last nine games at Petco Park stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Dodger home games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen White Sox road games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in Boston's last nine games.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Bronx games.
-- Five of last seven Oriole games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Texas road games.
Hot Teams
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games.
-- Atlanta won its last six home games.
-- Cubs won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Brewers won ten of their last twelve home games.
-- Dodgers won last four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Indians won twelve of their last fifteen home games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won six of their last eight home games. Royals won five of their last seven road games.
-- Seattle won twelve of its last fifteen games. Orioles won last three games, allowing total of nine runs.
Cold Teams
-- Cardinals are 3-8 in their last eleven road series openers.
-- Cincinnati lost seven of its last nine road games.
-- Colorado lost eleven of its last thirteen road games. Pirates are 1-4 in their last five gamed overall.
-- Astros are 5-22 in their last 27 road games. Nationals are 2-6 in their last eight home series openers.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last nine road games.
-- Giants lost their last four games, allowing 31 runs.
-- Mets lost six of their last eight road games. Padres lost five of last seven overall, 11 of last 16 at home.
-- Phillies are 4-10 in last fourteen road series openers.
-- White Sox lost last three games, scoring total of nine runs.
-- Toronto is 3-8 in last eleven road series openers.
-- Oakland lost seven games in row, scoring total of 15 runs. Rangers are 2-5 in game after their last seven wins, 3-7 in last 10 road series openers.
BIG AL'S FULL SERVICE CLIENTS
monday 3*
At 10:05pm our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. Padres veteran lefthander David Wells is supposed to be serving a suspension for an animated argument he had with the home plate umpire in his last start on July 7 against the Braves. The National League suspended Wells for seven games because of the incident, but Wells is appealing the ruling and therefore should get to pitch this one at home against the Mets and righthander Jorge Sosa. Sosa is one of the Mets lesser known members of that star studded pitching staff, and he probably likes it that way. Sosa is a 30 year-old veteran who can give you plenty of quality innings in a #4 or #5 rotation slot. He is just now coming off the 15 day DL because of a strained left hamstring, and he is hoping to follow in the foot steps of another Met who just came off the DL and in fact won on Sunday, Oliver Perez. The Mets are absolutely crushing lefthanded pitching, with a team batting average vs. southpaws of .288 while the Padres are a terrible hitting teams vs. righties (.234 this season). The Mets have really dominated this matchup in the past two years going 9-4 vs. San Diego since the start of last season. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
LENNY STEVENS
REDS - GIANTS
Ben Burns
Blue Chip Total
Baltimore/Seattle Over the Total
National League Game of the Month
LA Dodgers
Personal Favorite
New York Yankees
Brandon Lang
MONDAY
15 DIME
Rangers - - Specify Pitchers - Wright vs Braden
5 DIME
Marlins - Specify Pitchers - Looper vs Kim
Padres - Specify Pitchers - Sosa vs Wells
Free pick - Phillies
Ness Free Pick: Milwaukeee
Root
Chairman - Cardinals
Millionaire - Nationals
GREAT LAKES
4* Yankees
3* Dodgers
3* Arizona
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Jul 16 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The Mariners (51-3
are in the thick of the AL playoff race, not to mention being MLB's biggest moneymakers at plus-$1,905, while the Orioles enter on a modest three-game winning streak but own just a 41-50 mark (19-28 on the road). In this lefty vs lefty matchup (Burress vs Ramirez), expect a high scoring game. Rookie Brian Burress of the Orioles has been ineffective over his last five starts, allowing 18 ERs in 26 innings for a 6.23 ERA. The Mariners should just 'love' this guy, as they are 17-7 (plus-$1,280) when facing lefties this year, averaging 5.1 RPG. In eight home night games vs left-handers, they are 7-1, averaging 5.8 RPG. Horacio Ramirez of Seattle is coming off the DL to pitch here (shoulder tendinitis), making his first start since May 24. His numbers in 2007 are somewhat unbelievable, in that he's 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA at home but 0-2 (team is 0-4) with a 13.22 ERA on the road. Of course he's at home here but note that in 28 games vs lefties in 2007, the Orioles have averaged 5.2 RPG. Magnificent Monday Total on Bal/Sea Over.
National League
St. Louis at Florida, 7:05 EST
Braden Looper (R) vs. Byung-Hyun Kim (R)
Looper: St. Louis 10-1 Over away off BB Overs
Kim: Florida 19-32 SU as a favorite of -125 or less
70-Dime Home Run Club from Alex Smart
Cincinnati at Atlanta, 7:05 EST
Bobby Livingston (L) vs. Kyle Davies (R)
Livingston: Cincinnati 14-31 SU after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Davies: Atlanta 11-1 Over off 4+ wins
Colorado at Pittsburgh, 7:05 EST
Taylor Buchholz (R) vs. John Van Benschoten (R)
Buchholz: Colorado 10-28 SU away vs. NL Central opponents
Van Benschoten: Pittsburgh 12-6 SU after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Houston at Washington, 7:05 EST
Woody Williams (R) vs. Mike Bacsik (L)
Williams: Houston 2-13 SU away off BB losses
Bacsik: 10-2 Under as an underdog of +150 or less
Astros-Nationals Winner from Brian Hansen
(TC) San Francisco at Chicago Cubs, 7:05 EST ESPN
Tim Lincecum (R) vs. Rich Hill (L)
Lincecum: San Francisco 27-13 SU on Mondays
Hill: Cubs 1-9 SU off 3+ division wins
Arizona at Milwaukee, 8:05 EST
Micah Owings (R) vs. Dave Bush (R)
Owings: Arizona 1-9 SU off a division loss scoring 1 or 0 runs
Bush: Milwaukee 22-6 SU at home vs. NL Central opponents
MLB 10* Side Winner from Tom Freese
NY Mets at San Diego, 10:05 EST
Jorge Sosa (R) vs. David Wells (L)
Sosa: 14-3 TSR pitching off BB team wins
Wells: San Diego 22-10 Under off BB road games
Philadelphia at LA Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Brad Penny (R)
Moyer: Philadelphia 8-22 SU as an underdog
Penny: 20-7 Over in home games
American League
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 7:05 EST
John Danks (L) vs. Cliff Lee (L)
Danks: White Sox 9-18 SU vs. left-handed starters
Lee: Cleveland 30-10 SU as a home favorite
Kansas City at Boston, 7:05 EST
Brian Bannister (R) vs. Kason Gabbard (L)
Bannister: Kansas City 9-41 SU away vs. AL East opponents
Gabbard: Boston 12-2 SU after scoring 1 or 0 runs
Toronto at NY Yankees, 7:05 EST
Josh Towers (R) vs. Kei Igawa (L)
Towers: Toronto 8-4 SU on Mondays
Igawa: Yankees 11-18 SU vs. division opponents
Baltimore at Seattle, 10:05 EST
Brian Burres (L) vs. Horacio Ramirez (L)
Burres: Baltimore 19-49 SU as an underdog of +125 to +175
Ramirez: Seattle 14-3 SU as a home favorite of -125 to -175
MLB System of the Year from Carlo Campanella
Texas at Oakland, 10:05 EST
Jamey Wright (R) vs. Dallas Braden (L)
Wright: Texas 2-10 SU off a one-run win
Braden: Oakland 40-18 Under vs. right-handed starters
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Hot Pitchers
-- Kim is 1-0, 2.19 in his last couple starts.
-- Lincecum is 2-0, 2.68 in his last three starts.
-- Bush is 3-1, 2.73 in his last four starts.
-- DWells is 2-1, 2.67 in his last six home starts.
-- Penny is 5-0, 2.25 in his last nine starts.
-- Indians won four of last five Lee starts.
-- Gabbard is 2-0, 4.87 in four starts for the Red Sox. Royals are
5-2 in last seven Bannister starts; they scored 0,1 in the losses.
-- Toronto won last four Towers starts, scoring 26 runs.
Cold Pitchers
-- Looper is 1-4, 8.13 in his last six starts.
-- Livingston is 1-0, 3.75 in two starts, but last one was June 1.
-- Davies is 1-4, 7.31 in his last six starts.
-- Buchholz is 1-2, 5.68 in last four starts; last one was June 1st. Van Benschoten is 0-3, 5.79 in five starts this season.
-- Williams is 0-4, 6.43 in his last five road starts. Bacsik is 1-6 in his last eight starts, with a 6.26 RA.
-- Hill is 0-2, 7.40 in his last five starts.
-- Owings is 0-3, 10.43 in his last three starts.
-- Sosa was 0-2, 7.65 in last four starts before going on DL.
-- Moyer is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts.
-- Danks is 1-1, 4.85 in his last five road starts.
-- Igawa is 0-1, 8.55 in his last four starts.
-- Burres is 1-1, 7.40 in his last four starts. Ramirez has 7.51 RA in his eight starts, but Mariners split the eight games.
-- Braden is 0-3, 9.22 in his last three starts. Wright is 2-2, 5.55 in five starts this season.
Totals
-- Over is 8-3 in Florida's last eleven home games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in Atlanta's last nine home games.
-- Over is 9-4 in Colorado's last thirteen road games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Houston's last dozen road games.
-- Eight of last ten games at Wrigley Field went over the total.
-- Under is 5-0-2 in last seven Arizona road games.
-- Six of last nine games at Petco Park stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Dodger home games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen White Sox road games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in Boston's last nine games.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Bronx games.
-- Five of last seven Oriole games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Texas road games.
Hot Teams
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games.
-- Atlanta won its last six home games.
-- Cubs won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Brewers won ten of their last twelve home games.
-- Dodgers won last four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Indians won twelve of their last fifteen home games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won six of their last eight home games. Royals won five of their last seven road games.
-- Seattle won twelve of its last fifteen games. Orioles won last three games, allowing total of nine runs.
Cold Teams
-- Cardinals are 3-8 in their last eleven road series openers.
-- Cincinnati lost seven of its last nine road games.
-- Colorado lost eleven of its last thirteen road games. Pirates are 1-4 in their last five gamed overall.
-- Astros are 5-22 in their last 27 road games. Nationals are 2-6 in their last eight home series openers.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last nine road games.
-- Giants lost their last four games, allowing 31 runs.
-- Mets lost six of their last eight road games. Padres lost five of last seven overall, 11 of last 16 at home.
-- Phillies are 4-10 in last fourteen road series openers.
-- White Sox lost last three games, scoring total of nine runs.
-- Toronto is 3-8 in last eleven road series openers.
-- Oakland lost seven games in row, scoring total of 15 runs. Rangers are 2-5 in game after their last seven wins, 3-7 in last 10 road series openers.
BIG AL'S FULL SERVICE CLIENTS
monday 3*
At 10:05pm our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. Padres veteran lefthander David Wells is supposed to be serving a suspension for an animated argument he had with the home plate umpire in his last start on July 7 against the Braves. The National League suspended Wells for seven games because of the incident, but Wells is appealing the ruling and therefore should get to pitch this one at home against the Mets and righthander Jorge Sosa. Sosa is one of the Mets lesser known members of that star studded pitching staff, and he probably likes it that way. Sosa is a 30 year-old veteran who can give you plenty of quality innings in a #4 or #5 rotation slot. He is just now coming off the 15 day DL because of a strained left hamstring, and he is hoping to follow in the foot steps of another Met who just came off the DL and in fact won on Sunday, Oliver Perez. The Mets are absolutely crushing lefthanded pitching, with a team batting average vs. southpaws of .288 while the Padres are a terrible hitting teams vs. righties (.234 this season). The Mets have really dominated this matchup in the past two years going 9-4 vs. San Diego since the start of last season. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
LENNY STEVENS
REDS - GIANTS
Ben Burns
Blue Chip Total
Baltimore/Seattle Over the Total
National League Game of the Month
LA Dodgers
Personal Favorite
New York Yankees
Brandon Lang
MONDAY
15 DIME
Rangers - - Specify Pitchers - Wright vs Braden
5 DIME
Marlins - Specify Pitchers - Looper vs Kim
Padres - Specify Pitchers - Sosa vs Wells
Free pick - Phillies
Ness Free Pick: Milwaukeee
Root
Chairman - Cardinals
Millionaire - Nationals
GREAT LAKES
4* Yankees
3* Dodgers
3* Arizona
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Jul 16 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The Mariners (51-3
