BIG AL PLAY'S
At 7:05 pm our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. Toronto's 30 year old righthander Josh Towers may finally be ready for a breakout year in 2007. He did very well in 2005 (13 wins, 3.71 ERA) but then had a disasterous 2006, largely due to injuries which limited him to only 12 starts. But now Towers is firmly entrenched in the rotation of a much improved Blue Jays team and so far he has done very little wrong, putting up a 3.44 ERA with 14 strikeouts and only 4 walks in 18 innings covering 3 starts. The Rangers, however, look like they're headed for another disasterous pitching season as already they are 12th out of 14 in the AL in team ERA with well over 5 earned runs per game. That wouldn't be so bad if they could balance that out with some awesome hitting, but unfortunately the Rangers don't really have awesome hitting right now (what they actually have is below-average hitting). As a matter of fact, as of this writing, the Rangers, who have always prided themselves on having strong hitting clubs are actually LAST in the entire Major Leagues in batting average with a pathetic team average of .230. Their average against righties is even worse at .218. Texas knew it was taking a gamble when it signed former Dodger closer Eric Gagne to a one-year contract for 6 Million during the off-season, and sure enough, Gagne is on the DL yet again -- this time with a hip injury. Former Ranger closer Francisco Cordero, who Texas traded toward the end of last year, is now considered one of the top 3 stoppers in the National League as he continues to shine for the Brewers, while the guy they traded him for, Carlos Lee, has since moved across the state to play for the Astros. With decisions like these, does anybody wonder why the Rangers are consistently near the bottom in team pitching stats? Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Chicago as Miami falls into a system of mine that is 16-0 ATS since May 2002 which involves playing on certain home teams, down 2 games to none, if they're also off a double-digit loss in their previous game. There is one other element in this system which makes it pop, but that shall remain for my eyes only. Also, defending NBA Champions are a solid 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS as home favorites of minus 9 or less in the Playoffs after a loss of 9 or more points. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big NBA Winner on Friday night.
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors plus the points over Dallas. The Warriors self-destructed a bit at American Airlines Arena on Wednesday night, as both Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson were ejected. Davis was tossed with two-tenths of a second left in the 3rd quarter, while Jackson lasted just 7 minutes 26 seconds longer. Although Avery Johnson's Mavericks ran away with the league's best record this season, the one team that DEFINITELY has their number is Golden State. The Warriors have won six of the last seven meetings between these teams, including all 3 in Oakland. And Golden State is also playing its best ball of the year, with wins in 10 of its previous 12 games, including a 6-game win streak before Wednesday's loss. And, if Playoff history has anything to do with Game 3's outcome, the Warriors will go up 2 games to 1, as .560 (or worse) home dogs are a perfect 8-0 ATS from 1990 to 2006 in Game 3 of the opening round vs. .680 (or better) foes if they covered the spread in Game 1, and failed to cover in Game 2. And teams rebound well off a loss, if they were on a 6-game (or greater) win streak before the loss. These teams are a super 24-6 ATS in the playoffs as underdogs (of any number) or favorites of less than 5 points, including a perfect 14-0 ATS if the line was 5 or more points in their previous game. Take Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 3:05 pm, our NBA First Round Total of the Year is on the 'over' in the Pistons/Magic game. You can stick a fork in Orlando, as they're done! The Magic fell Thursday night at home to the Pistons, 93-77, and that put Orlando in an insurmountable 3 games to none deficit. Teams in this situation tend to lose Game 4 when they're underdogs, as they play like they KNOW they're beaten. The fire and intensity that was present in the earlier playoff games just isn't there. And one of the upshots of this lack of intensity is that the games go 'over' the total 83% of the time when our team down 3-0 is an underdog of +3 or more points. And, if the Over/Under line is 179 or higher, our 83% stat zooms to 93% as 13 of 14 games since 1990 have gone 'over' the total. Look for a very high scoring game in Orlando on Saturday afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Thank you sir