Kermit do you really think Bonds will need longer than my timeframe to break this record? It is very unlikely unless he gets injured.
I am glad you like your bet. It was the "easy" choice and unfortunately the most popular choice that he will break the record at home based on the chalk. Math tells me your bet is square. Of course that doesn't mean you will lose. He will have many more chances on the road to do this than at home. That is my whole point. If it takes him longer then that is a different story. But you have to figure it is very likely the record goes down before 50 more games
First off, from all indications, He is injured. His home run production has come to a obvious slowdown. Also from all accounts I have read, He is having trouble with both knees and that is a big part of the reason He has been used more sparingly. Also your 50 games is based on him playing in every single game... highly unlikely ! Also as I mentioned earlier, your Math stops exactly prior to the Giants starting a 9 game homestand ! I don't buy your so called " easy" choice nor do I buy your " Square" theory ! I pay no attention to this kind of BS... totally meaningless to me.
As for your very unlikely theory...... Why ? At the recent rate of production by Bonds, it is a very real possiblity that He will go beyond your timetable ! Take a look and watch him in the field ! This is not the Bonds who hit 73 home runs anymore. He is obviously hurting and that's why I'm basing my opinions on 2007 ! If you like the - 105 for Bonds to hit record on the road... Go right ahead. That's why they call it gambling. I'm just giving my opinion and I always like to take into consideration all the facts ! GL