BIZ World Cup 2018

[Biz]

Here is the record using the Consensus odds so far:

Tuesday:
Japan +450
Columbia/Japan DRAW +262
Russia +113

2-1 (+4.63)

Wednesday:
These next 3 games were combo plays risking 1U per game.
Morocco +560
Portugal/Morocco DRAW +271
Saudi Arabia +1700
Saudi Arabia/Uruguay DRAW +550
Iran +155o
Spain/Iran DRAW +550

0-6 (-3.00)

Thursday:
Croatia +320
Argentina/Croatia DRAW +220

1-1 (+2.2)

Friday:
2U Switzerland +190
1U Serbia/Switzerland DRAW +200

1-1 (+2.8)

Combined: 4-9 (+6.63)

I posted the Japan game the day before, I got +450 the day of the game. The Wednesday games were all to risk 1U per game. Thursday games were risking 1U each play, and the Switzerland game was 2U/1U.

 

[Biz]

Sunday, June 24

England -439
Consensus 76%, Implied 81.45%
Panama +1906
Consensus 5%, Implied 4.99%
DRAW +520
Consensus 19%, Implied 16.13%

DRAW offers some value at +520 on a play that hits at almost 20%.

Japan +230
Consensus 41%, Implied 29.85%
Senegal +125
Consensus 30%, Implied 44.44%
DRAW +215
Consensus 29%, Implied 31.75%

Japan is the clear value play in this game.

Poland +250
Consensus 29%, Implied 28.57%
Columbia +124
Consensus 42%, Implied 44.64%
DRAW +247
Consensus 29%, Implied 28.82%

This game offers little value at all.

Of the 3 Sunday games, Japan is the best play on the board.

 

[Biz]

Split the 2 early games. Belgium winning easily and South Korea losing outright.

Sweden +600 at game time (making the Implied odds even stronger) with the DRAW at +335. Public pounding Germany creating great value. 45 minutes to go, just need Sweden to hold on and Draw at worst.

 

[Biz]

That didn't take long.

1-1 beautiful goal by Germany.

 

[Biz]

What a brutal loss on that Draw.

Germany pushed the attack the entire half, and just a brilliant goal off the free kick in the final minute of stoppage time. That's what champions do.

On to tomorrow.

 

[richporter]

i honestly felt similar to how i felt having the Falcons in the last superbowl.. had Sweeden in multiple AH's thankfully my 1h wager cancelled out won i a tiny tiny amount on a live wager such a swing.. but so many things tilted me out it was 99% a penalty before anyone scored in 1h at the end prior to FK and foul they had a great scoring opporunity in attack with numbers and the idiot chose to take a shitbag shot.. then the foul absolutely no reason to foul there you have backup 2 feet behind you also why only 2 men in the wall if there was a 3man wall the shot gets blocked.. ughhh just venting

 

[Biz]

i honestly felt similar to how i felt having the Falcons in the last superbowl.. had Sweeden in multiple AH's thankfully my 1h wager cancelled out won i a tiny tiny amount on a live wager such a swing.. but so many things tilted me out it was 99% a penalty before anyone scored in 1h at the end prior to FK and foul they had a great scoring opporunity in attack with numbers and the idiot chose to take a shitbag shot.. then the foul absolutely no reason to foul there you have backup 2 feet behind you also why only 2 men in the wall if there was a 3man wall the shot gets blocked.. ughhh just venting

+ All of this. I said the same thing.

Why take that shot?? Just control the ball and take your draw of get a better shot.
Why foul and give up the free kick?
Obvious foul in the box, they didn't even look at it?? They have used VAR for lesser than that.

Combined: 5-13 (+5.63)

Split bets are counted as 2 separate results.

 

[Biz]

I'm not going to post every country with odds, I'll just post those that offer value.

Sunday, June 24

Japan +270
Consensus 41%, Implied 27.03%

Making this a 2U play.

 

[Biz]

Monday, June 25

7am: Russia +220
Consensus 35%, Implied 31.25%

Russia a play at +220 and up.

7am: Saudi Arabia/Egypt DRAW +330
Consensus 28%, Implied 23.26%

DRAW a solid play at the price.

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Tuesday, June 26

7am: Peru +155
Consensus 45%, Implied 39.22%

If Peru comes to play, they are solid value.

7am: France +125
Consensus 54%, Implied 44.44%

France is great value. 2U play with the 10% difference.

11am: Nigeria/Argentina DRAW +320
Consensus 29%, Implied 23.81%

Solid value on the Draw.

11am: Croatia +131
Consensus 58%, Implied 43.29%

Croatia a 2.5U play with nearly a 15% differential.

 

[Biz]

France and Croatia have already clinched a spot to move on.

Does anyone have thoughts on how motivated they will be to win their games??

 

[danmorales]

Its better to be the 1st place of the group. Denmark have a chance.
Croatia needs minimun a draw.

 

[Biz]

Sunday, June 24

Japan +270

Making this a 2U play.

Monday, June 25

7am: Russia +220

Russia a play at +220 and up.

7am: Saudi Arabia/Egypt DRAW +330

Tuesday, June 26

7am: Peru +155

7am: France +125

France is great value. 2U play with the 10% difference.

11am: Nigeria/Argentina DRAW +320

11am: Croatia +131

Croatia a 2.5U play with nearly a 15% differential.

2-5 (-2.18)

Combined: 6-14 (+4.45)


Saudi/Egypt a winner until very late, same with the Nigeria/Argentina Draw. Flip those to wins and its a 8.5U swing. Couldn't catch a break late. Russia and the Saudi Arabia/Draw actually dropped out of being plays on the final line, but when posted they qualified so will count as losses. We move on to Wednesday.

 

[Biz]

Wednesday, June 27

Sweden +219
Consensus 37%, Implied 31.35%

DRAW +237Consensus29%, Implied 29.67%Sweden a play at +203 and up.

Sweden/Draw is Consensus 66%/Implied 61.02%, with both plays at 200+. That is also solid value.

 

[Biz]

Wednesday, June 27

Sweden +219
Consensus 37%, Implied 31.35%

Combined: 7-14 (+6.64)

Sweden was the clear play at the price and a fantastic winner. They went off at closer to +225/+230. The conservative approach was Win/Tie, but the only play based on numbers was the win.

Lots of people I know tried to talk me into Germany laying multiple goals. Reason? They "had to win". I've posted this many times, and have said it often to my friends. Playing a team for this reason is the single worst reason to play a game. It doesn't matter the sport. First of all, you pay a premium because the line makers know this and jack up the lines. Secondly, these teams lose....often enough to make them poor wagers.

Thursday numbers out in a bit, congrats to all of the Sweden +219 backers.

 

[Biz]

Thursday, June 28

Panama +320
Consensus 31%, Implied 23.81%

Panama to win is the play. Nothing else qualified.

 

[Biz]

Adding....

Panama/Tunisia DRAW +286

Consensus 59% on the Panama/Draw combo.

Panama currently +354, DRAW at +286 with a combined Consensus at 59%. Putting 1U on both.

 

[Biz]

Panama currently +354, DRAW at +286 with a combined Consensus at 59%. Putting 1U on both.

Combined: 7-16 (+4.64)

The following plays are to advance.

2U Plays:
Portugal -101
Consensus 55%, Implied 50.25%

Brazil -350
Consensus 83%, Implied 77.78%

1U Play:
Japan +460
Consensus 24%, Im[lied 17.86%

 

[Biz]

What a tough beat with Japan, up 2-0 but couldn't hold on.

 

[thebiggbird]

Is Sweden a play? I'm taking them to advance at +110. Thanks for plays thus far.

 

[thebiggbird]

If I,m reading the info correctly then Colombia should be the play to advance, Colombia +165
Sorry Biz didn't mean to hijack thread. bol with your plays