I'm thinking -8 is the best we will get on the zona line. The public loves home teams, especially on MNF. Wouldn't be surprised to see the line move to -9 or higher. Going to get it now just in case it moves. Can't find enough compelling reasons to bet BALT in this spot. BOL this weekend fellas.
ARI -8 (+1 unit)
ARI -8 (+1 unit)
As predicted, line comes down on NE. Currently at -6.5 NE on bookmaker. Good news for anyone who bet 8-10 points on Jets. Seemed like there was a lot of value on them early in the week. With the current line this would probably be a no bet for me or a slight Pats lean.
Adding in one more play:
KC ML (-155)
This game is going to be pretty close and I like just going money line. Landry Jones is a big unknown factor still. Buying half a point here also makes a lot of sense. BOL.
Adding in one more play:
KC ML (-155)
This game is going to be pretty close and I like just going money line. Landry Jones is a big unknown factor still. Buying half a point here also makes a lot of sense. BOL.
I can't believe this line went to -6.5 for the Pats. I knew it would come down a little but I never saw it coming under a TD with them playing at home. Going to get hell for this but I'm doubling back from 1 unit on Jets +8.5 to 2 units on the Pats @ 6.5. Shooting for a middle, hoping for a pats win.
Pats -6.5 (+2 units)
The line movement has really thrown me a curveball and I'd be kicking my self all day if I didn't double back on this game when I know I should have. This game is seriously an insane game to try and cap, maybe I should have just stayed away. The only way for me to cap it with the insane line movement is to just wait as long as possible if I decide to double back. Call it a middling opportunity if you will. If I win, I'll only make a unit. I'm fine with that. There's always a middle shot at winning a lot. BOL all.
Pats -6.5 (+2 units)
The line movement has really thrown me a curveball and I'd be kicking my self all day if I didn't double back on this game when I know I should have. This game is seriously an insane game to try and cap, maybe I should have just stayed away. The only way for me to cap it with the insane line movement is to just wait as long as possible if I decide to double back. Call it a middling opportunity if you will. If I win, I'll only make a unit. I'm fine with that. There's always a middle shot at winning a lot. BOL all.
Crushed the middle of the pats/jets. 2 units Pats -6.5 and 1 unit on jets +8.5. Was worried my last bet didn't go through last minute but thank god it did. I'm lucky the Jets drove the ball at the end but that's football. Covered Tenn, covered STL, KC ML probably wasn't even needed but I just don't like them that much this year, Jets +8.5 cover and Pats -6.5 cover. Only loss was the Washington game, they played terrible and Wineston showed up to play (didn't think he would). I'm not putting multiple units into my WL, just bet by bet. Jets/Pats two different bets so not giving myself 3 wins, just 2 for both sides/bets (my first middle of the year - probably my only). Hope Car can cover tonight, the eagles are a great team but I don't personally like Bradford as a QB and I'm not leaving my money in his hands. Carolina has the better QB, better D and home field. I'll take it.
5-1 this weekend. Hope it continues but that's not realistic. BOL this weekend and monday guys.
5-1 this weekend. Hope it continues but that's not realistic. BOL this weekend and monday guys.
Alright, my plays got buried for tonight, they are on page 1.
2 unit teaser -110 (probably my only one of the year)
-1 Pats
-0.5 Cards
1 unit
ARI -8
As far as the Arizona game goes: The value that I saw was when this line was at +8. Said it earlier in the week in my thread for people to hop on it if they want to bet ARI. It's obvious the line was going to go up because the Cards are at home on MNF against a struggling Ravens team. The public likes betting home teams on MNF and the Cards are hot this year. The value at -9 is still there, albeit a bit less, if you can find it. Any line that's 10 or higher and this is just a no play for me.
As far as seeing value in a line of 10 - it's nice in theory. But you can't forget that the other team has to cover. It's easy to just look at the line and bet it because you're getting a bunch of points. At that point it's easy to come up with a bunch of small time factors or statistics that just don't influence the game enough and get sucked into the juicy line. The Cardinals are coming off a loss and have looked great in every game this year. Carson Palmer can really shine against teams with no pass rush, AKA Baltimore. I think there's a decent chance of a blowout, small-medium Ravens keep it close and very small chance of an upset. Just my best guess. From what I've seen with the Ravens this year, there isn't a compelling reason to bet them against the Cardinals at home. I don't see value in the bet and I'd rather bet money on flipping a coin. Flacco has burned bettors this year many times. As the saying goes, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Not going to be putting my money in an underperforming Balt team hoping they can cover, although 10 points kind of makes you wonder.
BOL to both sides!
2 unit teaser -110 (probably my only one of the year)
-1 Pats
-0.5 Cards
1 unit
ARI -8
As far as the Arizona game goes: The value that I saw was when this line was at +8. Said it earlier in the week in my thread for people to hop on it if they want to bet ARI. It's obvious the line was going to go up because the Cards are at home on MNF against a struggling Ravens team. The public likes betting home teams on MNF and the Cards are hot this year. The value at -9 is still there, albeit a bit less, if you can find it. Any line that's 10 or higher and this is just a no play for me.
As far as seeing value in a line of 10 - it's nice in theory. But you can't forget that the other team has to cover. It's easy to just look at the line and bet it because you're getting a bunch of points. At that point it's easy to come up with a bunch of small time factors or statistics that just don't influence the game enough and get sucked into the juicy line. The Cardinals are coming off a loss and have looked great in every game this year. Carson Palmer can really shine against teams with no pass rush, AKA Baltimore. I think there's a decent chance of a blowout, small-medium Ravens keep it close and very small chance of an upset. Just my best guess. From what I've seen with the Ravens this year, there isn't a compelling reason to bet them against the Cardinals at home. I don't see value in the bet and I'd rather bet money on flipping a coin. Flacco has burned bettors this year many times. As the saying goes, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Not going to be putting my money in an underperforming Balt team hoping they can cover, although 10 points kind of makes you wonder.
BOL to both sides!
