y probably heading to sub 4 nationwide average soon if we stay sub 140
gas at the pump lags oil price
also late spring early summer is the bad time of year for gas regardless of oil prices
since we switch over from the winter fuel to summer fuel that costs more due to higher emission standards
didnt we hear the same things about we'd never have $100 oil during an American economic slowdown? well, we not only have $100 oil during an American slowdown, but $145 last week. No reason to think $200+ oil is impossible.
regarding iran...always a backdoor to cover your ass, eh?
it doesnt work that way in the real world with money on the felt.
why dont you call a commodities broker and see if he will let you short oil with a disclaimer that if oil goes through the roof as a result of geopolitical event, you can cancel your trade w/o loss.
well, like it or not, terrorism and the us continuing to piss off muslims and other oil nations are part of the long term bullish fundamentals.
what you are trying to post with that logic is similar to posting that you are betting boston to win, but if kg and pierce dont play well boston will probably lose and your bet will not count.
volatility is what makes markets exciting to watch and play.
happy hour time.
im not looking forward to hearing the sheep there talking about how much oil was down today, but im sure it will be the #1 topic.
:toast:
hey what can i say i've been wrong on oil since the bear started
i was a commodity bull and super gold bug when the funny money games were working and i knew this day was coming and i wasn't posting here.....and i still am holding physical gold.....
also the massive bailout and dollar trashing that went on and continues obviously aiding things as well
we shall see how oil does as the bear grows deeper
maybe this deflationist bear will never see the light of day....either way i'm not making bets on oil either way just opinion.....too volatile and hard to predict event driven market for my tastes.....
but as i said above there is alot of deflation going on in homes and shit you don't need
i was a commodity bull and super gold bug when the funny money games were working and i knew this day was coming and i wasn't posting here.....and i still am holding physical gold.....
also the massive bailout and dollar trashing that went on and continues obviously aiding things as well
we shall see how oil does as the bear grows deeper
maybe this deflationist bear will never see the light of day....either way i'm not making bets on oil either way just opinion.....too volatile and hard to predict event driven market for my tastes.....
but as i said above there is alot of deflation going on in homes and shit you don't need
Any figure for the previous 12 months less than 10% is inaccurate imo.
Inflation should be measured via the net change in aggregate money supply.
The whole concept of inflation is greatly misunderstood currently in the United States.
Anybody with a pulse should easily know that what the govt states as price increases is completely bullshit.
When you hear or read that the govt is "bailing out" banks, homeowners, issuing rebate checks, etc, whats really happening is inflation.
the act of the federal reserve/govt printing/creating/increasing the aggregate money supply, is an invisible tax that we all end up paying.
if the fed/govt decides to bail out every bank thats buried and every homeowner that cant pay their mortgage, then that is inflationary and we will be paying much higher prices for things such as food and energy.
in essence, what im trying to explain is that bail outs are inflationary and will result in higher prices, so we pay in the end anyway.
hopefully this post is helpful.
how than do you explain the deflation in japan even though printing presses were in overdrive and yen tanked vs. other fiat currencies?
currency vs. other fiat can drop as well as prices of goods at home all at the same time
even though inflation absolutely bonkers in china and their currency is zooming higher vs. our fiat a big mac, shirt, many things....still costs less USD than in the US i believe
price of goods in america needs to undergo a correction to get back to coincide with a low credit can't take on anymore debt banks having to tighten up their ship, j6p living paycheck to paycheck environment
and compounding the problem job losses and lower wages make this even more viscous
6 dollar burritos, 60 dollar shirts at abercromie, etc.... not gonna fly anymore
currency vs. other fiat can drop as well as prices of goods at home all at the same time
even though inflation absolutely bonkers in china and their currency is zooming higher vs. our fiat a big mac, shirt, many things....still costs less USD than in the US i believe
price of goods in america needs to undergo a correction to get back to coincide with a low credit can't take on anymore debt banks having to tighten up their ship, j6p living paycheck to paycheck environment
and compounding the problem job losses and lower wages make this even more viscous
6 dollar burritos, 60 dollar shirts at abercromie, etc.... not gonna fly anymore
Oil Falls for Third Day as Slowing Economic Growth Curbs Demand
By Alexander Kwiatkowski
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day, the longest losing streak for a month, on speculation slower global economic growth is curbing fuel consumption.
Crude has plunged more than $13 from last week's record $147.27 on falling U.S. gasoline purchases. Economic growth in China, the world's second-largest oil user, was the slowest since 2005 in the second quarter. Plans for renewed diplomatic contacts between the U.S. and Iran eased concern a conflict will cut supplies from the Middle East's second-largest producer.
``The demand picture is clearly demonstrating that current high prices are slowing both industrial and personal usage,'' said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``Geopolitical worries are receding especially in U.S. and Iranian relations.''
Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.58, or 1.2 percent, to $133.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $133.97 at 1:13 p.m. London time.
Prices have dropped 7.9 percent in the past three days, the biggest three-day decline since January 2007. Oil fell as low as $132 a barrel yesterday, more than 10 percent below the record $147.27 reached on July 11. A drop of that magnitude is commonly referred to as a correction.
Prices fell yesterday after the Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles and a drop in monthly gasoline demand. Consumption of motor fuel in the U.S. averaged 9.3 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down 2.1 percent from the same period last year, an Energy Department supply report showed.
Nuclear Negotiations
Oil futures also fell as plans by a high-ranking American diplomat to take part in nuclear negotiations with Iran tempered speculation that the U.S. or Israel may attack OPEC's second- biggest oil producer in a dispute over its nuclear program. Concern about a possible attack helped push oil prices to a record last week.
Undersecretary of State William Burns will participate in the European Union-Iran talks this weekend in Geneva, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said yesterday without giving details. This is a shift in the U.S. position on talks with a government it has shunned since 1980.
The U.S. will announce in the next month plans to establish a diplomatic presence in Tehran, the U.K.'s Guardian newspaper reported today, without citing anyone. The Bush administration intends to set up a U.S. interests section in Tehran staffed by American diplomats almost 30 years after severing ties with Iran, the London-based newspaper said.
Pipeline Attack
Reports of an attack on an Eni SpA pipeline in Nigeria today failed to rally prices. The pipeline was blown up by ``community members,'' shutting 20,000 barrels a day of production, Reuters reported, citing the Bayelsa state Governor Timipre Sylva.
Brent crude oil for September delivery traded at $135.12 a barrel, down $1.07, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:52 p.m. local time. Yesterday it declined $4.05, or 2.9 percent, to $135.81 a barrel.
China's economic expansion cooled to the slowest pace since 2005 as gross domestic product grew 10.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, down from 10.6 percent in the first, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing.
Gasoline for August delivery was at $3.2649 a gallon in New York, down 1.45 cents, at 12:38 p.m. London time. Futures reached $3.631 a gallon on July 11, an all-time high.
Pump Prices
In the U.S., regular gasoline at the pump gained 0.5 cent to a record $4.114 a gallon, AAA, the nation's biggest motoring group, said yesterday on its Web site.
``U.S. drivers continue to curb travel whenever possible with retail gasoline prices above $4 a gallon,'' Harry Tchilinguirian, a senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London, said in a report. ``Prospects for the U.S. economy and gasoline demand go hand in hand.''
Confidence in the global economy deteriorated this month from Asia to the U.S. as oil prices rose to a record and the financial crisis deepened, a survey of Bloomberg users on six continents showed.
The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 10.3 from 21 in June, the lowest reading since the survey began in November.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net;
Last Updated: July 17, 2008 08:16 EDT
By Alexander Kwiatkowski
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day, the longest losing streak for a month, on speculation slower global economic growth is curbing fuel consumption.
Crude has plunged more than $13 from last week's record $147.27 on falling U.S. gasoline purchases. Economic growth in China, the world's second-largest oil user, was the slowest since 2005 in the second quarter. Plans for renewed diplomatic contacts between the U.S. and Iran eased concern a conflict will cut supplies from the Middle East's second-largest producer.
``The demand picture is clearly demonstrating that current high prices are slowing both industrial and personal usage,'' said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``Geopolitical worries are receding especially in U.S. and Iranian relations.''
Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.58, or 1.2 percent, to $133.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $133.97 at 1:13 p.m. London time.
Prices have dropped 7.9 percent in the past three days, the biggest three-day decline since January 2007. Oil fell as low as $132 a barrel yesterday, more than 10 percent below the record $147.27 reached on July 11. A drop of that magnitude is commonly referred to as a correction.
Prices fell yesterday after the Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles and a drop in monthly gasoline demand. Consumption of motor fuel in the U.S. averaged 9.3 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down 2.1 percent from the same period last year, an Energy Department supply report showed.
Nuclear Negotiations
Oil futures also fell as plans by a high-ranking American diplomat to take part in nuclear negotiations with Iran tempered speculation that the U.S. or Israel may attack OPEC's second- biggest oil producer in a dispute over its nuclear program. Concern about a possible attack helped push oil prices to a record last week.
Undersecretary of State William Burns will participate in the European Union-Iran talks this weekend in Geneva, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said yesterday without giving details. This is a shift in the U.S. position on talks with a government it has shunned since 1980.
The U.S. will announce in the next month plans to establish a diplomatic presence in Tehran, the U.K.'s Guardian newspaper reported today, without citing anyone. The Bush administration intends to set up a U.S. interests section in Tehran staffed by American diplomats almost 30 years after severing ties with Iran, the London-based newspaper said.
Pipeline Attack
Reports of an attack on an Eni SpA pipeline in Nigeria today failed to rally prices. The pipeline was blown up by ``community members,'' shutting 20,000 barrels a day of production, Reuters reported, citing the Bayelsa state Governor Timipre Sylva.
Brent crude oil for September delivery traded at $135.12 a barrel, down $1.07, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:52 p.m. local time. Yesterday it declined $4.05, or 2.9 percent, to $135.81 a barrel.
China's economic expansion cooled to the slowest pace since 2005 as gross domestic product grew 10.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, down from 10.6 percent in the first, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing.
Gasoline for August delivery was at $3.2649 a gallon in New York, down 1.45 cents, at 12:38 p.m. London time. Futures reached $3.631 a gallon on July 11, an all-time high.
Pump Prices
In the U.S., regular gasoline at the pump gained 0.5 cent to a record $4.114 a gallon, AAA, the nation's biggest motoring group, said yesterday on its Web site.
``U.S. drivers continue to curb travel whenever possible with retail gasoline prices above $4 a gallon,'' Harry Tchilinguirian, a senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London, said in a report. ``Prospects for the U.S. economy and gasoline demand go hand in hand.''
Confidence in the global economy deteriorated this month from Asia to the U.S. as oil prices rose to a record and the financial crisis deepened, a survey of Bloomberg users on six continents showed.
The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 10.3 from 21 in June, the lowest reading since the survey began in November.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net;
Last Updated: July 17, 2008 08:16 EDT
Oil to Hit $100
This according to Scott Bleier, President of hybridinvestors.com.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...But-Economic-Damage-Baked-In,-Strategist-Says
He states that the demand for oil has only been increasing by 2.5% per year. There is not enough demand to cause $140/barrel of oil and that it the price is a result of a trading phenomenon.
This according to Scott Bleier, President of hybridinvestors.com.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...But-Economic-Damage-Baked-In,-Strategist-Says
He states that the demand for oil has only been increasing by 2.5% per year. There is not enough demand to cause $140/barrel of oil and that it the price is a result of a trading phenomenon.
soros initiated short oil/long gold trade on thursday
it all depends on middle east tension for prices to stay above 125. US announced they will open an advisory service in Iran via another countries consulate- easing some pressure finally.
very volatile market so personally dont take positions in it.
it all depends on middle east tension for prices to stay above 125. US announced they will open an advisory service in Iran via another countries consulate- easing some pressure finally.
very volatile market so personally dont take positions in it.
<TABLE class=lan18 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="97%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hei22 vAlign=bottom height=25>Oil prices end lower on four-day drop
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2008-07-19 05:23:20</TD><TD class=hui12 align=middle width="26%"> </TD><TD class=hui12 align=middle width="12%">
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NEW YORK, July 18 (Xinhua) -- Crude futures fell for a fourth day Friday as the market continued to concern about the falling demand and the tension in the Middle East eased.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery dipped 41 cents to settle at 128.88 U.S. dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for September delivery fell 88 cents to settle at 130.19 dollars a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange.
U.S. fuel consumption fell 3 percent in the first half of 2008,the biggest decline for the period in 17 years, the American Petroleum Institute's monthly report showed Friday. Meanwhile, higher energy prices have helped sent the U.S. economy to the weakest six-month of growth in five years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Concerns that a conflict in Middle East eased as the U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs of the State Department William Burns will meet with Iranian and European leaders in Geneva this weekend on Iran's nuclear talks. Worries of potential disruptions of the area's crude exportation had pushed oil prices higher in the past few weeks. Oil prices started a sharp slide Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told the Congress that high gas prices had begun to affect consumer demand. Later his comment was backed by the U.S. Energy Department's data of unexpected increase in crude and gasoline inventories. Prices have dropped 16.30 dollars in the past four trading sessions.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff height=4></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="50%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="97%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="48%">www.chinaview.cn
NEW YORK, July 18 (Xinhua) -- Crude futures fell for a fourth day Friday as the market continued to concern about the falling demand and the tension in the Middle East eased.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery dipped 41 cents to settle at 128.88 U.S. dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for September delivery fell 88 cents to settle at 130.19 dollars a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange.
U.S. fuel consumption fell 3 percent in the first half of 2008,the biggest decline for the period in 17 years, the American Petroleum Institute's monthly report showed Friday. Meanwhile, higher energy prices have helped sent the U.S. economy to the weakest six-month of growth in five years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Concerns that a conflict in Middle East eased as the U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs of the State Department William Burns will meet with Iranian and European leaders in Geneva this weekend on Iran's nuclear talks. Worries of potential disruptions of the area's crude exportation had pushed oil prices higher in the past few weeks. Oil prices started a sharp slide Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told the Congress that high gas prices had begun to affect consumer demand. Later his comment was backed by the U.S. Energy Department's data of unexpected increase in crude and gasoline inventories. Prices have dropped 16.30 dollars in the past four trading sessions.
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The US industrial expansion over the last century was powered by the one-time hundred year oil chit. Cheap oil is declining and environmental results of burning it into air are increasing. It is not the end of the world, but it sure sure as hot hell is an end to a previous culture. World population expanded exponentially over the previous decades powered by oil-based farm fertilizers feeding the food supply. All the equations are shifting. Attribute gasoline prices to temporary market manipulations all you want. Petro dollar Moscow is flush with shopping mall wealth. The oil supply is declining. Long term consequences are obvious. What disturbs me is that the US has a failing, declining, and undereducated work force (score it how you want, our high school graduates don't rank in the top 25 worldwide). Previous generations of US farmers and citizens stood up to withering wars and challenges but our present generation has accepted inner city decay and violence as if it were a property rights, gun rights, real estate issue. We have a borderline retarded word-slurring president lecturing us on the difficulties of oil economics. Our neighborhood sociological communicative muscles have atrophied into road rage uselessness. Why the oil market explosion matters is because it demonstrates the obvious decline in the US social fabric and a shocking inability to react to a real corporate and individual national threat - energy impoverishment. If we don't get our asses in gear, the dark will be darker than energy lights out.
