a mutual fund portfolio manager with a podcast (lead lag report) is predicting stocks, especially nasdaq, to lose all their 2023 gains and then some. historically april in the year before an election always goes up but he is warning of a massive sell-off due to the pricing relationship between gold and lumber. He claims to have accurately predicted crashes and corrections in 00, 08, 11, 18, and 20 using the gold/lumber ratio
Lumber futures have dropped from $1464 last March to just $375 which indicates that the housing market is ready to collapse. New housing builds have certainly slowed, which brings down lumber prices, but the real estate market hasn't blown up like many predicted. Could happen in April...?
one thing's for certain. If it does blow up Biden and his gay black lesbian press secretary will tell us the only thing wrong with the economy is the people saying there's something wrong with the economy
but i've rarely seen sentiment indicators prove true so take this warning with extreme skepticism