Betting Previews For Top 25 College Football Teams

[bigwang]

Thanks for the very useful info.

I have small bets on canes and tcu to win playoff from those schools you have posted about so far. Also have wisc, penn, ok and wash to win title. The odds on Bama, Ohio st and usc and fsu are not worth it to me. Mine are all long shots...nothing less than 12/1. Just hoping for same opportunity as last year with futures on wash and Clem going into final 4.

Looking forward to the rest of the writeups.

 

[InsightMike]

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 23.


LSU Tigers

National title odds: 15-1 (opened 12-1)
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 8.3

Phil Steele

Strengths: Running back Derrius Guice is running behind my No. 4-rated offensive line in the country. Despite only five returning starters on defense, the Tigers rank in my top 15 in all three areas (defensive line, linebacker, defensive back) and have a top-10 defense.

Weaknesses: LSU was just No. 54 in my special teams rankings last year. Several of my receiver write-ups for other teams say, "and they add LSU transfer," so a lot of talent has left in the past two years from that spot and the Tigers graduate three of the top four wide receivers from 2016.

Over/under (9): With the move of the Florida game last year, LSU will play five true SEC road games and I cannot recall any other team ever doing that. I have them as a 'dog in three games so my number would be nine, but facing the toughest schedule in the country, maybe they will suffer some attrition and I will lean with the under.

National title odds (15-1): I have the Tigers coming in third in their own division so I would have put the odds closer to 25-1 or 30-1, making this a no play.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (9): If you have read any of my writing or listened to our podcasts (Behind the Bets with Chris Fallica) you know that my favorite setting, surroundings and fan base in all of college football have to do with the LSU football program. I'm still in disbelief as to what transpired in the time that Leonard Fournette was on campus in Baton Rouge. So many ups, but more important way too many downs. And the problem with the disappointing things that happened was that they were on the biggest possible stage. Whether it was the Tigers' awful start to the season at Lambeau Field last year or the past two offensive efforts against Alabama, they just have been flat-out hard to watch. So, when I get to this year's team, I just can't put my eggs in that basket even though it's so tempting because there is so much to like with the team, the changes, the home-field advantage. But I will pass and be more than willing to congratulate them if they were to exceed expectations. You know I love you Baton Rouge. Under nine wins for me.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (9): The last time LSU won 10 games in the regular season came in 2012. In the past four years, LSU has won nine, eight, eight and seven regular-season games, winning the final game each time. So the under was already in the bag headed into the final weekend. LSU is just 9-9 vs. the SEC West the past three years and 19-13 in SEC play the past four. Talent though, has never been an issue in Baton Rouge. LSU was a different team under Ed Orgeron and coupled with new offensive coordinator Matt Canada, this could be the season the LSU offense emerges from the dark ages and makes this a complete team. Leonard Fournette is gone, but Derrius Guice is more than talented enough to put up huge numbers. It's fair to assume Matt Canada will improve Danny Etling. And we know Dave Aranda will shape the Tigers' defense into one of the best units in the country. Despite all of LSU's deficiencies this year, the Tigers lost just 10-0 to Alabama in Baton Rouge -- and that was with QB issues galore. I know LSU has to go to Tuscaloosa this year, but remember, in Alabama's past six regular-season losses, four have come at home, including to LSU in 2011. The Tigers have to go to Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee as well, but each of those teams have their own issues. LSU was a pick of many to win the national title in 2016. Maybe the Tigers were just a year too early. I think they are 11-1 or 10-2.

National title odds (15-1): Many can't get past those five SEC road games. But two of those are at probably the two weakest teams in the West and Tennessee, which is a 50-50 game, as is the game at Florida. I think it's coming down to the game at Alabama, and if the LSU defense can give Bama as much trouble as it did last year, and the offense improves the way it should with Canada, one could view it as getting 15-1 on LSU beating Alabama, because should the Tigers do that, their price will plummet. I liked it better at 20-1, but it's still a pretty good value.

Good Stuff there.


I put 4 Units on LSU UNDER 9 wins

They will be weaker on both overall offense and defense.....They look to be weaker at every position based on what they have returning.

I just dont get the total wins being set at 9.........They only won 8 last year with a similar schedule..........Where do they get better?

They lost as much talent as anybody in the country (8 total NFL draft +2 NFL FA) They recruit very well but in this case - this season they are lacking depth and experience and everything indicates they will decline this season.


On defense LSU loses 2 guys in the backfield - S. Jamal Adams and CB Tre'davious White......Both guys were 1st RD Picks........


At the LB position their 2 top tacklers on the team (Riley & Beckworth) were both drafted in the 3rd RD.


On the D-Line their top 3 guys gone - all in NFL uniforms are gone via draft / FA


They return only 1 proven playmaker on defense, Arden Key - who led the team in sacks but he is recovering from shoulder surgery and has yet to practice......


Without the injured Arden Key nobody on this squad has a lot of experience.....Nobody other than Key has more than 1 sack or a couple INTs from last season.
They have a couple guys that were out last season injured returning but nobody special

The defense will take a hit without question


Its fair to say the offense must produce at a higher level to compensate for the losses they will suffer on the defensive side.......


At QB they are weak......Danny Etling before coming to LSU won 2 games in 2 seasons at Purdue......He needed that great defense and that great running attack to win 8 games last season....He cannot take over games with his arm........Very much a system QB which is fine unless you have to win 9 games with this team.


They return RB D. Guice but Its going to be very difficult to replicate the numbers that running game put up with L Fournette gone....They AVG'd 6 YDS per carry running the ball last season - ....This year opposing defenses will be able to load up 7-8 guys in the box......Rushing attack likely will still be strong but wont be easy to match last season numbers......

Also no proven weapons at WR which may cost them if they are forced to throw......3 starting receivers all with less than 6 career catches....Extremely inexperienced...


There is a big assumption here that LSU recruits so well that they will overcome all of their off season losses and in this case even winning an extra game......But what was not taken into consideration the talent remaining that the new starters will be playing with..........Even with the new talent they bring in every year - you cannot give them 8-9 wins just because without looking at other factors.




I got them losing to AUB, Bama, FL and TENN


BYU W
Chatt. W
@ MissST ?
Cuse W
Troy W
@ FL L
AUB L
@Miss ?
@ Bama L
ARK ?
@ Tenn L
TEX AM ?

 

[HacheMan]

11. Auburn Tigers

The Tigers have strength at every position, but can they navigate a tough SEC slate?

Auburn Tigers

National title odds: 25-1 (opened 25-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 9.7

Phil Steele
ESPN Insider

Strengths: Jarrett Stidham is an upgrade at quarterback, and Auburn has my No. 6 rated running backs and No. 8 rated offensive line. The defense allowed just 17.1 points per game last season and returns seven starters. They have my No. 12 rated defense overall. All eight units rank in my top units. This team is going to be good.

Weaknesses: If I had to pick a "weakness," I would go with the receiving corps. The top returnee of the group, Darius Slayton, had just 292 yards receiving last season.

Over/under (8.5): I have Auburn as the underdog in three games this season, as they travel to both Death Valleys in Clemson and LSU, and host Alabama. I'm high on the Tigers this season, but with them being an underdog in those three games, I have to go with the under.

National title odds (25-1): If a team in the West is going to knock off Alabama, it would be Auburn, and the Tigers host the Iron Bowl at the end of the season. They are strong in every unit, but since I went under in the category above, I will pass on the accurately priced title odds.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (8.5): Even with a 5-3 SEC mark last season, the Tigers are 7-12 in their past 19 SEC games. I anticipate that Auburn will be underdogs at Clemson, at LSU and vs. Alabama, and I think it's likely that the Tigers lose all three, leaving 9-3 as the ceiling. Remember, they would still have games at Texas A&M and against Georgia, and it's not like Mississippi State or road trips to Arkansas and Missouri are free wins. I was on the over with the Tigers last season, and that turned out to be the right side. Auburn has a history of being good when not expected to be good and disappointing when there are high expectations. This is one of those high expectation seasons. While Stidham should boost the quarterback play, losing studs like Jamal Adams and Shaq Lawson from that defense concerns me. I see 8-4 and like the under here, especially at plus money.

National title odds (25-1): If you're a believer, this is a good price. We know the SEC champ will be in the playoff, and I think the Tigers would be in the discussion if they get to 11-1 with a loss to Alabama in the final game. But who knows if the committee will ever put two teams from the same conference in the College Football Playoff.

 

[HacheMan]

10. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Will the Cowboys' dominant offensive trio bring them to the College Football Playoff?

Oklahoma State Cowboys

National title odds: 30-1 (opened 20-1)
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 7.9

Phil Steele

Strengths: The Cowboys have their version of triplets in quarterback Mason Rudolph, running back Justice Hill and wide receiver James Washington. The offense will be one of the nation's best. The offensive line was a weakness two years ago, but it is now a top-40 unit. Expect big numbers offensively.

Weaknesses: The defense was respectable last year, allowing 26.5 points per game, but the 465 yards per game was the most they have allowed since 2011. The Cowboys go from having seven returning starters on defense to just five, and only 53.4 percent of their tackles are returning, which is No. 105 in the FBS.

Over/under (9): I have Oklahoma State favored in nine games, an underdog in two and a pick 'em in one. They are a legitimate contender in the Big 12, so I would lean with the over. If they finish at nine, it's a push.

National title odds (30-1): Oklahoma State gets the Bedlam Series against Oklahoma at home, and their odds of winning the Big 12 are very close to where I have Oklahoma in my ratings. Yet, the Sooners are priced at 18-1, and the Cowboys are at 30-1. That means there is some solid value on Mike Gundy's squad, and they are worth a play.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (9): What's not to like about the Cowboys this year? They have a great coach, returning QB, my favorite wide receiver in the country and my favorite non-tree mascot in all of sports -- the one and only Pistol Pete. But seriously, the Pokes have 12 returning starters and a schedule that includes games vs. Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State and TCU in Stillwater. While plenty of focus will be on the Rudolph-to-Washington connection, which accounted for 71 completions, 1,380 yards and 10 touchdowns, it's the other weapons in this offense, such as Jalen McCleskey (73 catches in '16) and Justice Hill (1,142 rushing yards and six scores in '16), that could push this team to the next level. The belief here is that Gundy has his best team since he has been at the helm. They are my favorite to win the conference, and I like the over on nine wins this season. I also think Oklahoma State is worth a shot at 12-1 to make the College Football Playoff.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (9): We have the Cowboys at 7.9 wins, and I think they are one of the bigger differences between public perception and actual power ratings. For instance, our numbers say that Oklahoma State has just a 67 percent chance to beat Baylor at home, a game which the Cowboys should win without much problem. There's a fairly tough consecutive five-week stretch at Texas, at WVU, Oklahoma, at Iowa State and Kansas State, and that game at Iowa State has all the makings of a letdown sandwich game. I don't see 10-2, and if 9-3 is a best-case scenario, then the under is a good play here. Heck, the Cowboys could even lose at home to TCU or come out on the wrong side of a pinball game on the road against Texas Tech. I know people love Mason Rudolph, Justice Hill and James Washington, and yes, they are fun to watch, but I'm not buying double-digit wins. I'm in on the under. Too many teams in the Big 12 are going to be better this year, and that could tack a loss or two on OSU's record. One thing the over backers have going for them is the game at Pittsburgh is nowhere near as daunting as it could have been, given the recent suspensions for the Panthers.

National title odds (30-1): If you like them, have at it at that price. I still think they are a 9-3 type team and a long shot to make the College Football Playoff. Should they reach the playoff, I can't see them matching up with someone like Alabama, Clemson, Florida State or Ohio State in the trenches and coming out on top.

 

[HacheMan]

9. Wisconsin Badgers

With a light schedule and strong team, can Wisconsin make it to the College Football Playoff?


Wisconsin Badgers

National title odds: 20-1 (opened 40-1)
Season win total: 10.5
FPI win total projection: 10.6

Phil Steele

Strengths: While the Badgers have their third defensive coordinator in three years, they also have my No. 5 defense overall. The line and defensive backs are both top-20 units, and the linebackers rank as my third-best in the country. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line (90 career starts) is the best since head coach Paul Chryst took over before the 2015 season.

Weaknesses: Wisconsin's special teams were just No. 88 in the country last year, and while improved, they are still far from a strength. While the tight end position is solid with Troy Fumagalli, the wide receivers rank in the lower half of the Big Ten.

Over/under (10.5): I have the Badgers favored in all 12 games this year. They have three tough road games at BYU, Nebraska and Minnesota, but will likely be favored in each. Their toughest home game is Michigan, the week before the Wolverines play Ohio State. Even at 10.5, I'll take the over.

National title odds (20-1): As the clear favorite in the West, Wisconsin has a good shot at playing in the Big Ten title game. That would put the Badgers one win from the College Football Playoff, and I think they should have odds closer to 15-1, as they have the talent and the schedule to go 12-0. They are worth a look at 20-1.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (10.5): I could be crazy, but it always seems like Wisconsin does better when there are fewer expectations. Everyone talked about how tough the Badgers' schedule was last season when they faced six top-10 teams, and they ended up going 11-3, winning the Cotton Bowl. This year, they play at BYU instead of playing LSU, and they don't play the Buckeyes. I do see some losable games, including Northwestern, at Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan and at Minnesota.

The Badgers return 15 starters, including quarterback Alex Hornibrook (59 percent completion percentage and nine touchdowns last year) and Fumagalli, an All-American candidate. Another thing you don't have to worry about: Wisconsin will have talented running backs to carry the rock and monsters up front blocking for them. While I trust Chryst, I just think their total is a little too high, even though I do see them playing in the Big Ten title game. I'd lean with the under.

Betting preview: Win total, title odds for Wisconsin

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 24.


Wisconsin Badgers

National title odds: 20-1 (opened 40-1)
Season win total: 10.5
FPI win total projection: 10.6

Phil Steele

Strengths: While the Badgers have their third defensive coordinator in three years, they also have my No. 5 defense overall. The line and defensive backs are both top-20 units, and the linebackers rank as my third-best in the country. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line (90 career starts) is the best since head coach Paul Chryst took over before the 2015 season.

EDITOR'S PICKS

Betting previews for top 25 CFB teams
Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and Stanford Steve give comprehensive betting previews of the top 25 college football teams, including how to bet their title odds and over/unders.
Weaknesses: Wisconsin's special teams were just No. 88 in the country last year, and while improved, they are still far from a strength. While the tight end position is solid with Troy Fumagalli, the wide receivers rank in the lower half of the Big Ten.

Over/under (10.5): I have the Badgers favored in all 12 games this year. They have three tough road games at BYU, Nebraska and Minnesota, but will likely be favored in each. Their toughest home game is Michigan, the week before the Wolverines play Ohio State. Even at 10.5, I'll take the over.

National title odds (20-1): As the clear favorite in the West, Wisconsin has a good shot at playing in the Big Ten title game. That would put the Badgers one win from the College Football Playoff, and I think they should have odds closer to 15-1, as they have the talent and the schedule to go 12-0. They are worth a look at 20-1.


QB Alex Hornibrook is one of eight returning offensive starters for the Badgers. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (10.5): I could be crazy, but it always seems like Wisconsin does better when there are fewer expectations. Everyone talked about how tough the Badgers' schedule was last season when they faced six top-10 teams, and they ended up going 11-3, winning the Cotton Bowl. This year, they play at BYU instead of playing LSU, and they don't play the Buckeyes. I do see some losable games, including Northwestern, at Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan and at Minnesota.

The Badgers return 15 starters, including quarterback Alex Hornibrook (59 percent completion percentage and nine touchdowns last year) and Fumagalli, an All-American candidate. Another thing you don't have to worry about: Wisconsin will have talented running backs to carry the rock and monsters up front blocking for them. While I trust Chryst, I just think their total is a little too high, even though I do see them playing in the Big Ten title game. I'd lean with the under.

Chris Fallica

O/U (10.5): Wisconsin is one of those teams with seemingly interchangeable parts. So despite the early departures of Ryan Ramczyk and T.J. Watt, the Badgers should be in a good spot, returning seven starters on defense and eight starters on offense (including four of five offensive line starters). The Badgers play in the weakest division in the Power 5, do not face Ohio State during the regular season and host Michigan. Their two toughest road trips will be at BYU and Nebraska.

Wisconsin will be a big favorite in nearly every game, and it will be interesting to see how they fare in the role of the hunted as opposed to the role of the hunter, as was the case with last year's difficult schedule. I'm thinking 11-1 is a real possibility.

National title odds (20-1): I'd certainly be more bullish on an "odds to make the playoff" prop -- I don't think the Badgers are as talented as title favorites Alabama, Ohio State, USC and Florida State -- but anything can happen in a one-game situation. And if Wisconsin gets to the championship game and you were holding as high as 40-1 (what UW opened at), you would have a lot of options at play.

 

[HacheMan]

8. Washington Huskies

The Huskies return the lion's share of their 2016 team and avoid USC in regular Pac-12 play. Is another trip to the College Football Playoff in store?


Washington Huskies

National title odds: 20-1 (opened 30-1)
Season win total: 10
FPI win total projection: 10.3

Phil Steele

Strengths: Quarterback Jake Browning, running backs Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman, wide receiver Dante Pettis and my No. 17-rated offensive line -- with 97 combined career starts -- are all back. All three units on defense rank in my top 25 nationally, and the Huskies have six starters back from a defense that allowed just 17.7 points per game.

Weaknesses: The Huskies did lose three second-round draft picks from their 2016 secondary; the defensive backfield is still solid, but it won't be the elite unit it was last year. The Huskies' special teams were just No. 47 last year, and they have to replace their kicker, as well.

Over/under (10): They avoid USC in Pac-12 regular-season play, and while they do play teams such as Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon State on the road, they will be favored in each of those games. A road trip to Stanford on Nov. 10 will likely determine who will win the North. I have the Huskies in the Pac-12 title game -- so I am going with the over.

National title odds (20-1): The Huskies are a stronger team this year, but they did come up short in the playoffs last year -- and they'll likely have to get past USC in the Pac-12 title game to make the College Football Playoff again. They are accurately priced at 20-1, so no play for me.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (10): What I like to see when I look at where a previously strong team stands is who they have returning from an already successful year. That means their head coach, starting quarterback, running backs, an offensive line with experience and, of course, ballers in the front seven. The Huskies check all of those boxes. While plenty of people will mention how they lost three guys from their great secondary from 2016, they do return guys will experience and plenty of playmaking ability in Taylor Rapp and JoJo McIntosh.

The experts also will wonder how they will replace the 81 catches and 17 touchdowns produced by first-round pick John Ross. That's where you have to trust Chris Petersen and his staff, which I have zero trouble doing, as he has guys like Pettis (53 catches and 15 TDs last year). I can also see speedster Jomon Dotson getting a lot more touches than his 57 rushing attempts last year.

The schedule sets up nicely for Washington, and I fully expect the Huskies to be 9-0 when they travel to Palo Alto on Nov. 10 to face the Stanford Cardinal. We saw quarterback Jake Browning at less than his best in the Huskies' two losses last season, but I will credit that to him not being 100 percent healthy. There also is this sense I get from the Huskies that they got a taste of the big time last year by making the playoff, and now they know what it takes to get the job done. Over 10 wins, and I see them as one of my four playoff teams.

Chris Fallica

O/U (10): If you thought last year's schedule was easy, this one says "hold my beer" in response. The Huskies have a nonconference schedule of Rutgers, which might be the worst Power 5 team in the country, an FCS team in Montana and Fresno State -- a team that's on the longest losing streak in the FBS. And unlike 2016, Washington does not face USC during the regular season. The only game close to a 50-50 proposition is its trip to Stanford on Nov. 10, and it's hard to find where else a loss could come from on this slate outside of that visit to Palo Alto.

There are obviously a lot of losses at wide receiver and in the secondary, but with a solid front seven, two very good backs and Browning, it's hard not to see 11-1 as a baseline for the season. And while an upset would put 10-2 in play, I don't see how 9-3 comes into play. Best case a win, worst case a push for a team that will once again will find itself in the CFP mix.

Title odds (20-1): We saw last year that the committee doesn't care about nonconference schedule ranks: Win all of your games, and it will view you favorably. So while the Huskies' nonconference schedule will once again come under scrutiny from true strength of schedule measures, the CFP won't take any of that into account. If Washington caps a 12-1 season with a win over USC in the Pac-12 title game, there's basically no doubt the Huskies will return to the CFP. At 20-1, they are worth a play.

 

[HacheMan]

7. Oklahoma Sooners

Baker Mayfield and a strong offensive line are back, but Bob Stoops is gone. How much will the Sooners miss him?


Oklahoma Sooners

National title odds: 18-1 (opened 8-1)
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 10.8

Phil Steele

Strengths: Baker Mayfield is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he has my No. 1-rated offensive line in the nation blocking for him. With Jordan Thomas and Steven Parker as defensive backs, the Sooners have my No. 13-rated secondary.

Weaknesses: With Bob Stoops' unexpected departure, they have a first-year head coach in Lincoln Riley, who was Oklahoma's offensive coordinator last season. While improved, the Sooners' defense allowed 432 yards per game, and it returns just one established pass-rusher in Obo Okoronkwo (nine sacks in 2016).

Over/under (9.5): Right now in Las Vegas, they are an underdog in just one game, and that's at Ohio State. They do have to face Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas, all away from home, but they're favored in 11 of the 12 and my pick to win the Big 12. I will go with the over.

National title odds (18-1): I feel that five teams have a legitimate chance to win the Big 12 -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas State and Texas. The Big 12 has missed the College Football Playoff two of the past three years. I would have them priced at 15-1, but still no play here.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (9.5): The Sooners had to bring in a replacement for their future College Football Hall of Fame head coach. They had to find new wide receivers to replace a Fred Biletnikoff Award winner and all of their other pass-catchers. On top of all that, they must supplant two 1,000-yard rushers in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. I'm not saying that Mayfield can't lead his team to another Big 12 title game, but I just don't want to wager on it happening when there are so many unknown factors that can affect their season.

Their schedule also includes trips to Manhattan, Columbus and Stillwater. I see the biggest challenge for the Sooners being the improvement of the conference as a whole. I think Texas, West Virginia and TCU will all go over their projected win totals this season. I honestly won't be surprised if at the end of the year we can look at the Big 12 and say it is the most improved league in the country and in the conversation for being one of the top two conferences. Under 9.5 wins.

O/U (9.5): FPI has the Sooners at 11-1 or 10-2. Even with a loss at Ohio State, will they lose two Big 12 games to go 9-3? The TCU game is in Norman and they have road games in Manhattan and Stillwater, but can they really drop two of those three?

Do note though that Texas, despite its recent struggles, has given Oklahoma trouble. Both the Longhorns and Sooners have new head coaches, so who knows who will have the edge there.

Mayfield is back, as is his offensive line, but there are a ton of losses at the skill positions and the defensive line. I'd say 10-2 is the most likely scenario, but given how bad the defense has been -- along with the offensive losses and that I expect Kansas State, Texas and TCU to be better than last year -- I have a little hesitation.

Title odds (18-1): I just don't know how it will work out for the Big 12 this year, in terms of the CFP. It's still the weakest of the Power Five conferences, and unless its champ is a one-loss Oklahoma with a win over Ohio State or an undefeated team, it's likely the Big 12 will be the odd conference out again.

 

[HacheMan]

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

No one expected PSU to win the Big Ten last year, but it did. Can the Nittany Lions surprise again with a College Football Playoff bid?


Penn State Nittany Lions

National title odds: 20-1 (opened 25-1)
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 9.8

Phil Steele

Strengths: Penn State has a pair of Heisman candidates in quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Saquon Barkley. The offensive line has 87 career starts, and the defensive line is stocked three deep, with some capable true freshman outside of that. They also have my No. 8-rated special teams.

Weaknesses: Penn State is an entirely different team than the one head coach James Franklin started with. When I first talked to him in 2014, the Nittany Lions were basically one deep at every position. That's the total opposite now. Their lowest-rated unit in my national rankings is defensive back, which I have at "just" No. 26, so I guess I will call that a weakness.

Over/under (9.5): Penn State will be an underdog when it travels to Columbus the week after hosting Michigan, with Ohio State coming off a bye. It will likely be favored at both Iowa and Northwestern in its other two toughest road trips. The Michigan home game will likely be a "White Out," and the Nittany Lions will be fresh off a bye, while catching Michigan on a second straight road game. I have them favored in 11, so I like the over.

National title odds (20-1): No one expected Penn State to win the Big Ten last year, but it did, and now it will be preseason top-10. I would list its odds at more of 10-1, as this team is deep and talented at every position, so it is worth a play at 20-1.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (9.5): Well, well, it's my Nittany Lions. The team I rode to the ground as they magically covered their last 10 games of the season. Unbelievable! The doubters this year will point to a stretch of games that starts Oct. 7 with a trip to Evanston and continues with an expected "White Out" home game versus Michigan, followed by trips to Columbus and East Lansing. Those doubters will say Penn State will not be as "lucky" this year. I say it will be good enough to withstand its schedule, setting up a monster matchup in Columbus with the Buckeyes, in what might be the only game in which the Nittany Lions are an underdog.

There is so much to love about the team, including McSorley and Barkley, who accounted for over 45 of the team's touchdowns last year. I can easily see this team finishing 11-1. Over 9.5 wins.

Chris Fallica

O/U (9.5): The reigning Big Ten champions beat Ohio State in State College last year but now have to travel to Columbus this year the week after a home game with Michigan. And after the one-two punch of Michigan and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have to visit East Lansing. Now nobody is confusing this Spartan team with the one that reached the Rose Bowl and CFP, but that game looms as a major upset trap. McSorley and Barkley -- who is the best player in the Big Ten -- return, but WR Chris Godwin is gone. Penn State projects to win 10 games per FPI, assuming a near-certain loss at Ohio State (14 percent chance to win) and then games vs. Michigan, at Iowa, at Northwestern and at Michigan State making up the toughest remaining games on the slate.

This is a real tough number because the road games at Iowa and Northwestern are very tricky and I suspect Michigan will be a lot better than people believe heading into the season. Talent-wise, Penn State is a 10-2/11-1 type of team. But I get a sense there are a couple of losses this year that will surface, making 9-3 a distinct possibility.

National title odds (20-1): Much like LSU, Penn State's hopes of reaching the conference title game -- and likely the CFP -- hinge on beating the big dog in its conference on the road. Should Penn State do that, the Lions could be in great shape come CFP-standings time. I still think 20-1 is a little short, though, and one could probably wait to see how those games at Iowa and Northwestern play out and then get a decent price at that point in the season.

 

[HacheMan]

5. Clemson Tigers

No established quarterback? No problem for the defending champs

Clemson Tigers

National title odds: 30-1 (opened 20-1)
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 9.6

Phil Steele

Strengths: Clemson is strong in the areas that I value the most. The Tigers have my No. 5 rated offensive line in the country with four starters back, including left tackle Mitch Hyatt. They also have the best defensive line in the country. The defense has allowed just 313 and 311 yards per game in the last two seasons, despite having just three and four starters back. This year, they have seven starters back on that side of the ball, so expect defensive dominance.

Weaknesses: Deshaun Watson was a special quarterback, but Clemson also loses 1,000-yard running back Wayne Gallman, top wide receiver Mike Williams and top tight end Jordan Leggett. The Tigers are fine at running back, but weaker in the other skill areas. Clemson has ranked just No. 100, 96, and 66 in my special teams rankings in the last three years and must replace their punter, top kick returner and long snapper, as well.

Over/under (9.5): Clemson has some tough road tests with Louisville, Virginia Tech and North Carolina State all away from home, and it has to host Florida State. With that said, it is the favorite in Vegas in every game this year, and at this price, Clemson can afford to lose games and still go over. Take the over.

National title odds (30-1): The common fan looks at quarterback, running back and receivers, as those are the easiest to grasp. With the Tigers losing all the key guys from those units, they go from national champs to 30-1. I put an emphasis on offensive line and defense, and Clemson is at the top in those areas. Five of the last seven national champs have had a first-year starting quarterback. This is a definite take.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (9.5): There have only been two teams to repeat as national champions in the last 25 years of the sport. So, we shouldn't like the chances of Clemson, right? Well, maybe. The Tigers will have one of the nastiest defensive lines in all of the land, led by Christian Wilkins (12 tackles for loss), true sophomore Dexter Lawrence and Clelin Ferrell. Dabo also returns four starters on the offensive line, which includes two all-conference players. That unit helped the Tigers average over 39 points and 503 yards per game last year.

Now, everyone will want to know who the guy taking snaps at quarterback will be for the defending national champions, but that's why Dabo Swinney makes a lot of cash. He's paid to make those decisions, and you have to trust him. I also believe Dabo will keep this team hungry, despite coming off the 'ship. I think they can win the division, but I think they will do so by going under 9.5 wins.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (9.5): The last time Clemson won fewer than nine games was 2010. The defense is going to be lights out, and that's going to take a lot of pressure off the offense early on as they break in a new quarterback. I don't see the Tigers and that defense losing at home to Auburn in Week 2, so to finish 9-3, they would then need to lose three of games at Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at NC State, vs. FSU and at South Carolina. I have hard time thinking that will happen.

True, this team has won 26 games against FBS opponents in the last two years, and 11 of those have been by eight points or fewer (eight by six points or fewer). And it is noteworthy that that was with Deshaun Watson, so some will say the luck will run out on Clemson this year. However, the last six years are good enough of a track record for me. Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, I'm thinking another 10-win season is in the cards for the Tigers.

National title odds (30-1): It is highly unlikely that Clemson will repeat as national champs, but it very easily could be going for three titles in a row this year. There's a good chance Clemson is favored in every game this year, and by the time the FSU game rolls around, the quarterback situation should be settled. Despite the odds against a repeat, I am a little intrigued at 30-1.

 

[HacheMan]

4. USC Trojans

With Heisman favorite Sam Darnold taking snaps, the Trojans could make a serious run at a national championship this season.

USC Trojans

National title odds: 7-1 (opened 8-1)
Season win total: 10.5
FPI win total projection: 9.1

Phil Steele

Strengths: Once Sam Darnold took over as the starting quarterback and the defensive line matured, the Trojans were the one non-playoff team that no one wanted to play at the end of the year. I rate them top 10 in the country on both offense and defense this season.

Weaknesses: USC's lowest-rated unit is the defensive line, which is "just" No. 17. However, I will go with the special teams as the weakness. They were No. 9 last year, but the unit loses the kicker, along with super return man Adoree' Jackson.

Over/under (10.5): It is tough to win 11 games in college football, but this team is loaded. They will be favored in their three toughest road tests: Washington State, Notre Dame and Colorado. Overall, the Trojans will be favored in all 12 games this year. Even at 10.5, I'm still on the over.

National title odds (7-1): USC has not fared well in seasons when they are ranked in the preseason top 10, and that would have me a little hesitant if not for their talent and schedule. They should be one of the prime favorites. There's not a lot of value at 7-1, but even still, I would have them priced closer to 4-1.

Over/under (10.5): There is just nothing like the USC hype train. We got the Heisman front runner, a hot team, the fight song, the Coliseum -- it's all about the aura of the Men of Troy. Still, it once again seems like there is work to be done before we can give the Trojans all this love. It feels like yesterday that Lane Kiffin held a press conference in front of a Christmas tree to announce that Matt Barkley was returning as the quarterback in SoCal before that team went 7-6 and lost five of their last six games.

Even so, I will admit there is a lot to like about this Trojans team, including head coach Clay Helton, who doesn't get enough credit for the job he did last year. The offensive line helped make Sam Darnold the least sacked quarterback in the country last year, and running back Ronald Jones II has accumulated over 2,000 yards over the last two seasons. I do worry about the schedule, though. First off, there is no bye week. There's a game against Texas right after playing Stanford, there's a trip to Pullman on a Friday night to play Washington State that has "Let's Get Weird" written all over it, and there's also a trip to South Bend. Plus, I haven't yet even mentioned a game in their division. I'll call the under.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (10.5): The reigning Rose Bowl champions have the preseason Heisman front-runner in Sam Darnold at quarterback, but gone is a good chunk of the offensive line, as well as Adoree' Jackson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers. Per FPI, the Trojans have three 50-50 games (Stanford, at Washington State and at Notre Dame) and have the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation. Keep in mind that USC last won 10 regular season games in 2011. Sure, sanctions may have had something to do with that, but it seems USC has found ways to struggle and lose games it should win as of late. That wasn't the case last year, as all three USC losses came with the Trojans as the underdog.

Still, needing 11-1 to cash an over is a steep proposition, especially knowing that the Trojans play in 12 straight weeks without an idle week, have lost seven of nine to Stanford, have to go to Pullman to play the Cougars on a short week and a late October game in South Bend could be a bad weather situation. 10-2 and a berth in the Pac-12 title game seems like a very realistic finish, but that unfortunately won't give you the over.

National title odds (7-1): 7-1 seems like a tempting price...almost too tempting. The bandwagon is full and a trip to the CFP may hinge on beating Stanford twice or Washington in the Pac-12 title game. I'll pass for now, but should the Trojans drop that game to Stanford, there may be a better buying opportunity.

 

[HacheMan]

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

J.T. Barrett and Urban Meyer are back, along with a ton of talent. Ohio State should be in the College Football Playoff conversation all year long

Ohio State Buckeyes

National title odds: 3-1 (opened 8-1)
Season win total: 11
FPI win total projection: 11.9

Phil Steele

Strengths: With Kevin Wilson taking over as offensive coordinator, I expect J.T. Barrett to revert to his 2014 form: a Heisman Trophy front-runner before his season-ending injury. The Buckeyes are very strong at the line of scrimmage with my No. 2-rated offensive line and No. 3-rated defensive line. The back seven on defense is loaded with potential All-Americans.

Weaknesses: They have talent at wide receiver, but Urban Meyer thought that group would be outstanding last season and it was not. I will wait until they show me. The special teams has to replace their punter, kicker and top punt returner.

Over/under (11): The Buckeyes will be favored in every game with the toughest road game at Michigan at the end of the season. They will be at least a touchdown favorite in 11 games, so I will go with the over.

National title odds (3-1): Meyer has lost three bowl games in his career. After his first two bowl losses, he won the national title the very next season. Can he make it 3 for 3? Ohio State was No. 128 on my experience chart in 2016, and this season the Buckeyes move all the way to No. 38, going from six returning starters to 15. I like the odds here and would play the Buckeyes.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (11): The best addition to a team in all of college football was the hire of Kevin Wilson to be the offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes. The last time we saw the OSU offense, they were blanked in embarrassing fashion in the national semifinal against Clemson ... it was pretty bad.

Obviously, the negative talk around Barrett is warranted after the way he played late in the season, but there too many positives for Barrett, and I think that he will have a comeback campaign and lead his team to the national title. The Buckeyes are the most talented team in their conference and maybe in the country. Give me the over on their win total.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (11): 12, 12, 11, 11, 11 -- those are the regular-season win totals in Meyer's five years in Columbus. Surely Ohio State will not win fewer than 10 games, will it? FPI is bullish on the Buckeyes, as they have by far the best chance to win out (35 percent), possess the 52nd-rated schedule and project to win 11.9 games. The only game Ohio State projects to have worse than an 82 percent chance to win is the Oklahoma game in Columbus on Sept. 9.

But think back to how poorly Ohio State finished the 2016 season. The Buckeyes were shut out and managed just 215 yards against Clemson. They had 310 and 330 yards against Michigan and Michigan State, respectively, in the final two regular-season games, with the offense managing five TDs and six 3-and-outs in those two games. Barrett has seen his QBR drop from 87.1 in 2014 to 76.9 in 2015 and just 68.0 last year. From Oct. 22 on, it was even worse -- 66.2, which ranked 53rd in the FBS and 34th among Power 5 QBs. Gone are playmakers Curtis Samuel and WR Noah Brown.

Ohio State has recruited well, but the offense remains a question mark. If Wilson can solve the woes, OSU should easily win 11 games. But if not, maybe games against Oklahoma, Penn State, Iowa and Michigan become tougher than anticipated. Still, push comes to shove, it hard to see anything worse than 11, but it is hard to put money down anticipating a 12-0 season.

Title odds (3-1): While it's highly likely OSU will win the Big Ten and be in the CFP, those odds are too short for a play, in my opinion. If OSU gets to the title game, there's a good chance it would be an underdog against Alabama and you could get plus money on a one-game scenario in the title game and take all the risk of simply getting into the game out of the equation.

 

[HacheMan]

With Heisman favorite Sam Darnold taking snaps, the Trojans could make a serious run at a national championship this season.

USC Trojans

National title odds: 7-1 (opened 8-1)
Season win total: 10.5
FPI win total projection: 9.1

Phil Steele

Strengths: Once Sam Darnold took over as the starting quarterback and the defensive line matured, the Trojans were the one non-playoff team that no one wanted to play at the end of the year. I rate them top 10 in the country on both offense and defense this season.

Weaknesses: USC's lowest-rated unit is the defensive line, which is "just" No. 17. However, I will go with the special teams as the weakness. They were No. 9 last year, but the unit loses the kicker, along with super return man Adoree' Jackson.

Over/under (10.5): It is tough to win 11 games in college football, but this team is loaded. They will be favored in their three toughest road tests: Washington State, Notre Dame and Colorado. Overall, the Trojans will be favored in all 12 games this year. Even at 10.5, I'm still on the over.

National title odds (7-1): USC has not fared well in seasons when they are ranked in the preseason top 10, and that would have me a little hesitant if not for their talent and schedule. They should be one of the prime favorites. There's not a lot of value at 7-1, but even still, I would have them priced closer to 4-1.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (10.5): There is just nothing like the USC hype train. We got the Heisman front runner, a hot team, the fight song, the Coliseum -- it's all about the aura of the Men of Troy. Still, it once again seems like there is work to be done before we can give the Trojans all this love. It feels like yesterday that Lane Kiffin held a press conference in front of a Christmas tree to announce that Matt Barkley was returning as the quarterback in SoCal before that team went 7-6 and lost five of their last six games.

Even so, I will admit there is a lot to like about this Trojans team, including head coach Clay Helton, who doesn't get enough credit for the job he did last year. The offensive line helped make Sam Darnold the least sacked quarterback in the country last year, and running back Ronald Jones II has accumulated over 2,000 yards over the last two seasons. I do worry about the schedule, though. First off, there is no bye week. There's a game against Texas right after playing Stanford, there's a trip to Pullman on a Friday night to play Washington State that has "Let's Get Weird" written all over it, and there's also a trip to South Bend. Plus, I haven't yet even mentioned a game in their division. I'll call the under.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (10.5): The reigning Rose Bowl champions have the preseason Heisman front-runner in Sam Darnold at quarterback, but gone is a good chunk of the offensive line, as well as Adoree' Jackson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers. Per FPI, the Trojans have three 50-50 games (Stanford, at Washington State and at Notre Dame) and have the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation. Keep in mind that USC last won 10 regular season games in 2011. Sure, sanctions may have had something to do with that, but it seems USC has found ways to struggle and lose games it should win as of late. That wasn't the case last year, as all three USC losses came with the Trojans as the underdog.

Still, needing 11-1 to cash an over is a steep proposition, especially knowing that the Trojans play in 12 straight weeks without an idle week, have lost seven of nine to Stanford, have to go to Pullman to play the Cougars on a short week and a late October game in South Bend could be a bad weather situation. 10-2 and a berth in the Pac-12 title game seems like a very realistic finish, but that unfortunately won't give you the over.

National title odds (7-1): 7-1 seems like a tempting price...almost too tempting. The bandwagon is full and a trip to the CFP may hinge on beating Stanford twice or Washington in the Pac-12 title game. I'll pass for now, but should the Trojans drop that game to Stanford, there may be a better buying opportunity.

 

[indiana]

H/man.........appreciate the write ups.........BOL this season........indy

 

[2ese]

My pm not working...please help...want to join willy99 pool...thx

 

[HacheMan]

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Stop us if you have heard this before: Alabama is loaded at every position and enters the season as the national champ favorite.

Alabama Crimson Tide

National title odds: 5-2 (opened 3-1)
Season win total: 11
FPI win total projection: 10.8

Phil Steele

Strengths: Alabama has my No. 2-rated secondary with 10 of the top 12 defensive backs returning, including Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison. The front seven is loaded with talent and includes my No. 1-rated linebacker corps. I rate Alabama's offensive line No. 2 in the country, and the line will block for the best set of running backs, a unit that boasts Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris and Najee Harris -- all of whom are capable of starting for any team in the country. Calvin Ridley and Robert Foster lead my No. 5 set of receivers, and Jalen Hurts is the reigning SEC Offensive Player of the Year and the first returning starter at quarterback for the Tide since 2013.

Weaknesses: Alabama has been able to pressure quarterbacks without blitzing over the past two seasons, and while I like the front seven, the Tide will have to blitz more to match the 53 and 54 sack totals that the team has recorded in its past two campaigns. Alabama was just No. 41 in my special-teams rankings last season and loses its kicker, first-team SEC long-snapper and its top punt and kick returners.

Over/under (11): In the past six years, the Tide have lost a total of five regular-season games and topped 11 wins all but once. I have them favored in all 12 games this year. Take the over.

National title odds (5-2): Last year, the Tide were 6-1, and they are now the prohibitive favorite at 5-2. With six months to go and with the wager being basically one team against every other team, there is no value. They deserve to be the favorites, but this is a no play.

'Stanford Steve' Coughlin

Over/under (11): I think I have been wrong on the Crimson Tide's projected win total for five years running. Let's see if I can break the streak this time around. As I look at this year's Bama roster and schedule, it really doesn't have much to do with Nick Saban's team as much as it has to do with the other teams on the schedule and in the conference. The Tide's schedule features teams that are supposedly hungry and ready to prove it: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU. Do you really think those teams are going to beat the Tide? I sure don't. I also expect, to plenty of criticism, Jalen Hurts to be playing at a high level this season. People seem to forget the spot he was put in last year. He was a true freshman quarterback for the top team in the land, and I thought he performed superbly in those circumstances. And he will have plenty of support this season, as Alabama also has a returning near-1,000-yard running back. I see the Tide as one of the four playoff teams, and I like the over.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (11): Just look at the regular-season win totals for Alabama since 2008: 12, 9, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12. Only in 2010 have the Tide failed to win at least 11 regular-season games. FPI has the Tide's schedule rated 10th overall, but it also gives Alabama a 10 percent chance of winning out, which is the second-highest chance behind Ohio State. We know all of the losses Alabama accrued on draft day, but the offense should still be potent with Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough (as well as highly touted freshman Najee Harris) and Calvin Ridley, and we should know by now that the Alabama defense will always be good, regardless of who it loses. Alabama has just two games in which it has less than a 80 percent chance to win, Florida State in Atlanta (59 percent chance to win) and at Auburn (56 percent chance to win). Will the Tide lose both? I think it's unlikely. With the track record that the team has under Nick Saban, it's hard to imagine Alabama falling below the 11-win mark in the regular season. Still, I don't like needing a perfect 12-0 season to cash a ticket. So while I think 12-0 is much more likely than 10-2, it's a tough thing to walk to the window needing perfection to cash.

National title odds (5-2): While the Tide are the deserving favorites, I wouldn't take 5-2 out of the gate. Say the Tide lose to Florida State in Week 1, you might be able to get a slightly better price, and if Alabama were to win the SEC, they would be a lock for the College Football Playoff. If Bama beats FSU, how much shorter can the number be? I don't think it will be enough to warrant not waiting until after the season opener -- or even until the CFP itself, should Alabama find itself there for the fourth straight season.