I agree, trying to bet winners of golf tournaments are almost a shot in the dark. That's why it's by far the lowest money I wager on a sporting event. Having said that, the Masters probably gives us our best shot at winning one of these majors because of the limited field. And also because it is a tourney that invites back past winners like Langer, Olazabal, Crenshaw, Faldo, O'Meara and other who have almost no chance at winning. This limits the field even further. We've also got an extra high number of first time Masters rookies this year. And the only first time invitee that I know of to win the Masters was Fuzzy Zoeller way back in the 70's. So that also more than likely limits the field even further. I really don't think there are more than about 25 golfers who can win it this year. Far less than in previous years. You've got to remember that Augusta favors a certain style of play. That's why you have players like Cabrera who basically don't do much of anything all season, but always shows up for the Masters.
As good as he is, the chances of a Zac Johnson winning again aren't very good. The conditions have to be just right for shorter hitting players like that. The year he won the masters, they had record low temperatures that year, and it kept the long ball hitters from reaching the Par 5's in two. Johnson always lays up to par 5's, so with his excellent wedge play it evened out the field a bit. But they aren't going to get those kinds of conditions this year. The course also favors high ball flights. Low ball hitters like Graham McDowell have missed the cut several times at the Masters because of his low ball flight that can't stay on the greens when hitting from 180-200 yards out. He's at a serious disadvantage against high ball hitters like Scott, McIlroy or even Garcia. So you can eliminate quite a few players because of their style of play and length off the tee.
