Thank You
Great information. MANY THANKS! :toast:
Best of luck with your plays. They all look like WINNERS!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYXBF...eature=related
Great information. MANY THANKS! :toast:
Best of luck with your plays. They all look like WINNERS!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYXBF...eature=related
game # 7
I said last week that WVU doesn't deserve to be ranked right now. This team is just not the same any more. Too many changes, and they never really recovered from that loss to Pittsburgh last season. Simply put, it's the end of an era. They struggled offensively against ECU and defensively against Villanova, a team that had 400 yards of offense and outgained the Mountaieers in week 1. They had some extra days to prepare for this game but so did Colorado.
Colorado's struggle against EWU was kinda expected. They played against their rivals CSU the week before and had a bye and a meeting with nationally ranked WVU after the EWU game. They started the game slow but then woke up and outscored the opponent 24-3 in the second half.
Colorado should be a solid team this season and this is a statement game for them going into the B12 action.
Every week I compare the line set by the linemakers with the actual differential in rankings and so far this season when the road fave was ranked not more than 50 spots better than the home team (faves of less than 2 TD) they are 4-12 ATS. KAST was one of these teams tonight and they lost outright to Louisville. According to my ratings WVU should be favored by more than 3 and since they are not, it tells me that the books want WVU action.
1-1 teams favored by not more than 21 pts are 4-21 ATS in last 25 (when facing a 2-0 team.) after a loss of 7+.
they are 7-33 ATS in this spot if the opponent in either 1-0 or 2-0.
(0-12 away)
Colorado +3
game #8
Give me one reason to believe that UTST should be favored against Idaho. They are comming off of their most important game of the season (rivalery game against UTAH that was not even close) and a 42 pts loss at Oregon. Idaho is just as bad but they picked up one win and at least they believe that they know how to win. They were destroyed by Arizona and WMU but they outgained WMU, IDST, while UTST was outgained by 750 yds in their first 3 games. Idaho covered the spread 6 times in last 8 in this series and won in their last trip to Utah State.
Idaho was overvalued by the books in their first two lined games this season and I don't believe the books are not reacting. It is a rare thing that they will let the bettors beat them with the same team three times in a row in a 11 gms football season.
Everyone is on UTST this week, without asking a question, how come they are only 5.5 faves ?
Never ask winless teams with 3+losses to cover the spread for you as small favorites of a TD or less. They are 0-7 su and ats in this situation in last couple of years.
Idaho +5.5
game #9
Auburn +3 *b*
This series has been dominated by the home team in recent years (straight up) and by Auburn ATS (last 3 years). Hatch and Lee are not impressing anyone with their completion %, yards or TD/Int ratio in first two games and with this being their first true test, and a first SEC road game of the season, I expect them to stay unimpressive against one of the best, if not the best defense in the nation right now.
LSU was able to run all over APPST and NTX, at home, but Auburn's 38 ryds/30 carries allowed at MSST, 37 ryds/27 carries allowed vs SMISS and 84 ryds/30 carries allowed against LAMO are far more impressive.
Did you know that Auburn's defensive 3rd down conversion % is only 4% ?
That's 3/46, against LAMO, MISST and MSST.
Those are some sickening numbers. I don't know how LSU will be able to move the chains in this game. Too many changes from the last years squad, not even close to the experience they had in years past. Yet they are stil the publics darlings in this matchup.
3-0 SEC teams are 14-5 ATS in last 19 as dogs against another SEC team
I said last week that WVU doesn't deserve to be ranked right now. This team is just not the same any more. Too many changes, and they never really recovered from that loss to Pittsburgh last season. Simply put, it's the end of an era. They struggled offensively against ECU and defensively against Villanova, a team that had 400 yards of offense and outgained the Mountaieers in week 1. They had some extra days to prepare for this game but so did Colorado.
Colorado's struggle against EWU was kinda expected. They played against their rivals CSU the week before and had a bye and a meeting with nationally ranked WVU after the EWU game. They started the game slow but then woke up and outscored the opponent 24-3 in the second half.
Colorado should be a solid team this season and this is a statement game for them going into the B12 action.
Every week I compare the line set by the linemakers with the actual differential in rankings and so far this season when the road fave was ranked not more than 50 spots better than the home team (faves of less than 2 TD) they are 4-12 ATS. KAST was one of these teams tonight and they lost outright to Louisville. According to my ratings WVU should be favored by more than 3 and since they are not, it tells me that the books want WVU action.
1-1 teams favored by not more than 21 pts are 4-21 ATS in last 25 (when facing a 2-0 team.) after a loss of 7+.
they are 7-33 ATS in this spot if the opponent in either 1-0 or 2-0.
(0-12 away)
Colorado +3
game #8
Give me one reason to believe that UTST should be favored against Idaho. They are comming off of their most important game of the season (rivalery game against UTAH that was not even close) and a 42 pts loss at Oregon. Idaho is just as bad but they picked up one win and at least they believe that they know how to win. They were destroyed by Arizona and WMU but they outgained WMU, IDST, while UTST was outgained by 750 yds in their first 3 games. Idaho covered the spread 6 times in last 8 in this series and won in their last trip to Utah State.
Idaho was overvalued by the books in their first two lined games this season and I don't believe the books are not reacting. It is a rare thing that they will let the bettors beat them with the same team three times in a row in a 11 gms football season.
Everyone is on UTST this week, without asking a question, how come they are only 5.5 faves ?
Never ask winless teams with 3+losses to cover the spread for you as small favorites of a TD or less. They are 0-7 su and ats in this situation in last couple of years.
Idaho +5.5
game #9
Auburn +3 *b*
This series has been dominated by the home team in recent years (straight up) and by Auburn ATS (last 3 years). Hatch and Lee are not impressing anyone with their completion %, yards or TD/Int ratio in first two games and with this being their first true test, and a first SEC road game of the season, I expect them to stay unimpressive against one of the best, if not the best defense in the nation right now.
LSU was able to run all over APPST and NTX, at home, but Auburn's 38 ryds/30 carries allowed at MSST, 37 ryds/27 carries allowed vs SMISS and 84 ryds/30 carries allowed against LAMO are far more impressive.
Did you know that Auburn's defensive 3rd down conversion % is only 4% ?
That's 3/46, against LAMO, MISST and MSST.
Those are some sickening numbers. I don't know how LSU will be able to move the chains in this game. Too many changes from the last years squad, not even close to the experience they had in years past. Yet they are stil the publics darlings in this matchup.
3-0 SEC teams are 14-5 ATS in last 19 as dogs against another SEC team
True. However I like Ole Miss a lot in this matchup. Almost made it an official play #10. I might add it later on this week. Either Ole Miss - the points, Ole Miss moneyline or something with the team totals. The only thing that scares me about this game is Ole' Miss' next game (@Florida).
wanted to include ole miss in my card but decided to stay away from them and to replace them with smu. smu was rated 'almost made the list' until this morning when i changed my mind and upgraded them to an official play. not a fancy selection by any means, but picking fancy teams is not my style anyways. this is definately all for this week in cfb.
game #10
3-0 TCU is going to 1-2 SMU and they are 24.5 pts favorites. The line looks about right. The public loves TCU and that's right as well. Nothing unusual with public throwing their money on a 24.5 pts favorite. But what is unusual here is that the public is liking the over as well. SMU is not a good defensive team at all, but TCU is not really winning with their offense right now. In their two games against lined teams their QB has 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, and their ground attack is producing only 4.1 yards per carry. That is not a very good offensive production for a supposedly elite MWC team. They are doing it with their defense, and they've been good both against the run and against the pass. However, their opponents have not been pass happy anyways and that's the complete opposite to what SMU will try to do. SMU will pass all night long.
For TCU, this is not an important game, especially with a trip to Oklahoma comming up next week. For SMU this is a HUGE rivalery game that can really turn their season around to the pleasure of their new coach. TCU is also comming off of a win vs a PAC 10 team and even thaugh it was a win against Stanford, it is stil something a MWC team will brag about if need be. Since TCU became a team to beat in this series, SMU has been looking at this game as their bowl game no matter what happens the rest of the season. No reason for them to think differently this time around.
As bad as SMU has been in recent years, they are stil 7-3 in last 10 night home games, and those 7 wins include 1 upset win over TCU in 2005. Those 3 losses include one overtime loss and one close loss and ATS win against TXT. This is a night game and it can only be an advantage for SMU.
TCU is 0-5 ATS in last 5 as double digit road fave before being a dog in the next game (obviously they won't be favored in Oklahoma) and 0-5-1 ATS in last 6 as double digit road faves after a win (won against Stanford last week). Overall, 3-0 MWC faves are 0-6 ATS in last 6.
Road teams not underdogs of 3 TD or more are 9-39 ATS before a game vs Oklahoma in which they will be the underdog (first 8 weeks of the season).
0 loss and 3+ wins teams vs 1-2 teams, favored by 19+, are 4-24 ats (0-9 away) if they will not be favored by 7+ in the next game. Obviously TCU will not be favored at all @ Oklahoma next week.
SMU +24.5
game #10
3-0 TCU is going to 1-2 SMU and they are 24.5 pts favorites. The line looks about right. The public loves TCU and that's right as well. Nothing unusual with public throwing their money on a 24.5 pts favorite. But what is unusual here is that the public is liking the over as well. SMU is not a good defensive team at all, but TCU is not really winning with their offense right now. In their two games against lined teams their QB has 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, and their ground attack is producing only 4.1 yards per carry. That is not a very good offensive production for a supposedly elite MWC team. They are doing it with their defense, and they've been good both against the run and against the pass. However, their opponents have not been pass happy anyways and that's the complete opposite to what SMU will try to do. SMU will pass all night long.
For TCU, this is not an important game, especially with a trip to Oklahoma comming up next week. For SMU this is a HUGE rivalery game that can really turn their season around to the pleasure of their new coach. TCU is also comming off of a win vs a PAC 10 team and even thaugh it was a win against Stanford, it is stil something a MWC team will brag about if need be. Since TCU became a team to beat in this series, SMU has been looking at this game as their bowl game no matter what happens the rest of the season. No reason for them to think differently this time around.
As bad as SMU has been in recent years, they are stil 7-3 in last 10 night home games, and those 7 wins include 1 upset win over TCU in 2005. Those 3 losses include one overtime loss and one close loss and ATS win against TXT. This is a night game and it can only be an advantage for SMU.
TCU is 0-5 ATS in last 5 as double digit road fave before being a dog in the next game (obviously they won't be favored in Oklahoma) and 0-5-1 ATS in last 6 as double digit road faves after a win (won against Stanford last week). Overall, 3-0 MWC faves are 0-6 ATS in last 6.
Road teams not underdogs of 3 TD or more are 9-39 ATS before a game vs Oklahoma in which they will be the underdog (first 8 weeks of the season).
0 loss and 3+ wins teams vs 1-2 teams, favored by 19+, are 4-24 ats (0-9 away) if they will not be favored by 7+ in the next game. Obviously TCU will not be favored at all @ Oklahoma next week.
SMU +24.5
I live in Toledo, and last year they were saying the same thing about Toledo covering and Purdue came into Toledo and LIT them up 52-24.
Same will happen tonight, this Toledo team is still not where they were 3 or 4 years ago.
The only thing Toledo has going for them is Fresno will be unmotivated, but I think the opposite will happen, motivation wise, since they lost last week.
Take Fresno -7.
Same will happen tonight, this Toledo team is still not where they were 3 or 4 years ago.
The only thing Toledo has going for them is Fresno will be unmotivated, but I think the opposite will happen, motivation wise, since they lost last week.
Take Fresno -7.
