Best China Micro-caps on the Market

[kuwlness]

Bunch of updates above, plz read them all so you're up-to-date ...

Two other stocks I have a small position in, but am watching very closely to add more are CALI and CHOP.

These are still early calls, but I believe the futures are very bright in both and looking to buy more on weakness or with any positive updates from management. Stay tuned...

 

[tiznow]

HQS is a horror story ... Case in point: they sell at roughly $7/share ($100M cap), and have roughly $3.50/share ($50M) in cash alone. Yet they just registered another $50M offering!!! It's nutz. They have absolutely no need for cash right now, but they keep raising cash "just in case" a need arises in the future. It's as if they are a company with an anxiety disorder. Cash OCD--never enough to quell the fears.

If you dilute like they have in the past three years, the earnings will get bigger, but the EPS won't. Not a good company ... I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole.

yeah i gave up on it when i saw the 50 mil shelf offering but still something i'll be watching for the long term

good prospects for long term but for whatever reason they refuse to use their cash stash for expansion and instead keep diluting screwing shareholders

as for reason for money this is supposedly in the works

but not sure why they can't use their cash stash instead of diluting some more

... Norbert spoke about $33 M needed for investments over the next 18 months:

- $10 M for buying ponds;
- $8 M for a fry breeding;
- $15 M for a new factory.

-----------

nother dip to 4s or lower like last year when the carnage went down and i'll be back in...plus as you know by now i'm calling for another round of carnage to equities in general in 2010..........was mainly playing for a near term play hoping for a big pop on q3 and q4 earning like has occured in the past few years but q3 disappointed and than i saw the shelf offering in early dec an said goodbye for now.....

 

[kuwlness]

Here are the little monsters that have been occupying a lot of my time:

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

Awesome pics. Thanks for the updates.

 

[kuwlness]

YONG


Fianancing deal announced:

8 million shares for 7.50 -- a little larger than I expected ... this is appx 25% dillution; however, it's to increase production by 200% (10,000 tons to 30,000 tons).

Wait for this to level off, it could easily over-shoot to the downside. Next week will give you a good idea of once it's levelled off and new support levels.

 

[kuwlness]

YONG


Fianancing deal announced:

8 million shares for 7.50 -- a little larger than I expected ... this is appx 25% dillution; however, it's to increase production by 200% (10,000 tons to 30,000 tons).

Wait for this to level off, it could easily over-shoot to the downside. Next week will give you a good idea of once it's levelled off and new support levels.

YONG

Crunching numbers:

$24.5 M / 43,840,900 -- so if we rebase EPS we get $0.56.

So PPS of 7.5 gives a P/E 13.4
Stock's growth is 50% for next 3 years -- If I under-estimate and use 40%, my new target is $22 (long-term)

 

[kuwlness]

WOW, S&P higher than gold ... who woulda thought??

lol


For the Gold Bulls I'd recommend playing the DGP etf. Though you should really re-consider being bullish as it's nearing the 50-day and if that breaks, there is no technical support until the 100-day which is at $960. And breaking the 200-day is likely as the dollar continues its push higher. That's where I'd be a buyer of the DGP etf.

Here's a nice little chart to digest before buying gold at these prices:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83158616956&a=163465953



RIM and Oracle just posted blow-out quarters, so I hope everyone bought their favorite stocks today on discount. Tomorrow we should rally.

 

[snoop]

does CHFI bottom out yet?

 

[kuwlness]

does CHFI bottom out yet?

.17 is where I'll be a buyer, that's where I bought it back in March, lol. I'm sitting on what I have until we get an SEC filing. Keep your eyes peeled on EDGAR for them to drop something in there outta the blue. They should be reporting very soon or I fear there might be something wrong.

Better off sticking with the bigger names ... CHFI is very speculative at this point. Could be a gold mine though, so worth it to have something in the stock IMO.

 

[PeterGriffin]

I realize this is the stock forum, but I would rather talk about the dogs. @) Cavalier King Charles Spaniels I take it? At least that's what they like it. Good looking dogs for sure, and they're a very cool breed. My girlfriend and I just got a 10-week old Pointer/Lab mix last week to go with our 1-year old American Bulldog/Hound. I've been complaining about lack of sleep and how much time the 2 of them have been taking up. I'll shut up now after seeing your picture though. You must REALLY have your hands full.

 

[ANOTHERDAY]

CNOA -- ouch.

My apologies on this one. I mean, no one can predict earnings, but this was a huge miss by the company. However, I wont take full responsibility since I've been recommending since the .60s. Believe me, a lot of people took a blood bath on this one today. Can't believe we opened at .80 and traded down to the high .60s.

FWIW, I grabbed 10k at .70. It's gonna be good long-term IMO. Will probably flip more than half of that once we get back over $1. Still worth $2+.

Earnings weren't that horrible, just a lot less than expected:

Double profit and earnings over 2008
$17M + $8M in cash + $44M in receivables, $8M in debt

Sounds cheap to me.

Picked up a bunch of CNOA at .75

Up to .86 today<><>

See it going up and up??

 

[kuwlness]

I realize this is the stock forum, but I would rather talk about the dogs. @) Cavalier King Charles Spaniels I take it? At least that's what they like it. Good looking dogs for sure, and they're a very cool breed. My girlfriend and I just got a 10-week old Pointer/Lab mix last week to go with our 1-year old American Bulldog/Hound. I've been complaining about lack of sleep and how much time the 2 of them have been taking up. I'll shut up now after seeing your picture though. You must REALLY have your hands full.

Yessir, Cavalier King Charles Spaniels ... wonderful dogs. I have five adults and five puppies, but only plan on keeping pick of the litter.

Lack of sleep doesnt begin to describe the torture these little monsters have caused me in recent weeks, lol. Puppies tend to want to play when you want to go to bed, and they appear to be nocturnal by nature ... serious, these little monsters are quiet all day, but like to start playing when I lay down.

Anyway, congrats on your new puppy.

 

[kuwlness]

Picked up a bunch of CNOA at .75

Up to .86 today<><>

See it going up and up??

I see you waited for confirmation of the .74 break-out, nice thinking. I was invested heavily from .70 on the big drop, but didnt sell into the last run. Didnt buy on this last dip as I was comfortable with what I had and didnt want to add more.

CNOA came out with news right after the bell too:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Organic-Agriculture-Inc-prnews-3769186475.html?x=0&.v=12


It'll probably be back over $1 in coming weeks, but I would sell into the strength it will likely see over the next few days. I would only keep a small position in CNOA going forward until they come out with their next 10Q and we can see how reliable management is.

 

[kuwlness]

Some of my favorite stocks for the next few weeks:


SKBI -- big bounce coming soon, worth $18-$22 ... should get to this price by July.

ZSTN -- worth more, over-sold, gap filled today ... should see $8.25+ soon.

CGDI -- seems to have bottomed, big seller has been pushing this one down.

JADA -- said to load up again in the low .30s a week or two ago, now it's heading back to .80+, should be an easy ride, not many sellers anymore, they sold much lower, lol.

NEWN -- worth $16+, up-listing to the Nasdaq in the near-term, one of my top holdings going into 2010, $7.50 resistance, but took out 50-day moving average no problem today. I'll be buying any moderate pull-back in this stock, even if it's only down .25

SIAF -- Break-out on tap, .01 away from 52-wk high and they have a Conference Call coming up on January 5th to discuss the future outlook and to hopefully finalize the dividend. Up-listing to otcbb next year. Lots of positives could be discussed on the con call, i wouldnt recommend being un-invested in this stock on the day of the con call.

 

[kuwlness]

Also, just a heads-up that PUDA may be having another stock offering soon to finish paying for the mines they acquired from the Government ... please keep this in mind going forward even though I anticipate it as well as LLFH and SGZH to continue to rally as I believe Coal is about to start a new bull rally and over-take the agriculture bull rally we've been having for the last few months.

I'm most heavily invested in SGZH and I intend to take some profits in LLFH around $7.50. Try buying SGZH in the low $8s (8.10-8.30) on the bid ... I believe last Q was a one-off as their largest customer was idled for the Q and all that money should come back next Q which will be substantial revenue and additional EPS.


Your big buy-in point for LLFH is appx $5.80, but I think those days are gone now and we'll have to look for a new buy-in point ... probably around $6. Mid-term Price target on LLFH s $10, but it's probably worth $16 by end of 2010.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

Yes, CHIO is pathetic and painful, but it's worth a lot more than what it's selling for. I'm accumulating under .75 from time to time. If you're only concerned about the short-term, then this stock may not be right to hold ... however, cheaper taxes on long-term holdings.

There's still a registered seller and that's been beating CHIO down every time it starts to move. Could go on for months or could stop tomorrow, just depends on how much he's got left and how much he's deterred interest in the stock for the short-term.

Any end in sight to this beatdown CHIO has been taking?

I've got a few extra bucks in my Roth account and I'm considering CHIO or SIAF, unless you have something else to recommend. This will be trading cash so it's something I'd like to flip in a few weeks.

 

[kuwlness]

Any end in sight to this beatdown CHIO has been taking?

I've got a few extra bucks in my Roth account and I'm considering CHIO or SIAF, unless you have something else to recommend. This will be trading cash so it's something I'd like to flip in a few weeks.

CHIO probably wont do much and might continue its slow and steady decline until their next 10Q comes out ... people want to know if they are entirely done with the insurance business and if so, how profitable the software side of the business is going to be.

So, I'd recommend you buy SIAF or one of the others I mentioned on the last page that I suspect to have a large move in coming weeks.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

SIAF it is then. Thanks.

 

[ANOTHERDAY]

I see you waited for confirmation of the .74 break-out, nice thinking. I was invested heavily from .70 on the big drop, but didnt sell into the last run. Didnt buy on this last dip as I was comfortable with what I had and didnt want to add more.

CNOA came out with news right after the bell too:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Organic-Agriculture-Inc-prnews-3769186475.html?x=0&.v=12


It'll probably be back over $1 in coming weeks, but I would sell into the strength it will likely see over the next few days. I would only keep a small position in CNOA going forward until they come out with their next 10Q and we can see how reliable management is.

It's at $1.00 as I speak, should I sell most of them or do you see it going to $1.20+ or so? Thanks <><>

 

[kuwlness]

It's at $1.00 as I speak, should I sell most of them or do you see it going to $1.20+ or so? Thanks <><>

I suggested this a few posts back when the news came out:

"It'll probably be back over $1 in coming weeks, but I would sell into the strength it will likely see over the next few days. I would only keep a small position in CNOA going forward until they come out with their next 10Q and we can see how reliable management is."

I would recommend selling tomorrow before it likely corrects back into the mid-.80s where I'll be a buyer again. I sold 90% of my CNOA position today and will start buying again in the mid-.80s.