In Case You Need More Reasons to Invest in China
IMF Raises China 2010 Growth Forecast, Trims India
By Aki Ito
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy will grow faster than previously forecast in 2010 as the country’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) in emergency spending spurs domestic demand, the International Monetary Fund said.
China will expand 9 percent in 2010, more than the 8.5 percent estimated in July, the Washington-based IMF said today in Istanbul, where it’s holding annual meetings. India will grow 6.4 percent, less than the 6.5 percent predicted previously. Japan’s growth outlook stayed at 1.7 percent.
Asia is leading the world’s emergence from its deepest recession since the 1930s after policy makers slashed interest rates to unprecedented lows and governments announced more than $950 billion of stimulus measures. The IMF predicts gross domestic product in developing Asia will expand at more than twice the pace of advanced economies next year.
“The global economy appears to be expanding again, pulled by the strong performance of Asian economies and stabilization or modest recovery elsewhere,” the IMF said. “Domestic demand appears relatively robust, particularly in China and India, helped by strong macroeconomic policy support.”
The world economy will expand 3.1 percent next year, more than a July forecast of 2.5 percent, the IMF said.
Developing Asia will grow 7.3 percent, faster than a previous estimate of 7 percent.
China’s Stimulus
China’s stimulus package and record loan growth helped manufacturing expand at the fastest pace in 17 months in September, a separate report showed today in Beijing. The government, which is marking 60 years of Communist Party rule today, has pledged to keep stimulus policies to create jobs, maintain social stability and strengthen the recovery.
The IMF said officials in Asia will need to formulate plans for ending their stimulus measures in a way that sustains the region’s expansion.
With “the recovery gaining strength, the policy challenge is to determine when and how to withdraw policy support while ensuring a successful transition to more balanced medium-term growth,” the fund said.
Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda said in an interview yesterday that governments in the region may end stimulus policies earlier than the U.S., Europe and Japan because their economies are “recovering faster and earlier.”
Japan will remain in deflation until 2012 because of “significant slack” in the economy, the IMF said. Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy tumbled 2.4 percent in August, the fastest decline on record.
The IMF said Asia will need to foster domestic spending because demand from the U.S. and Europe won’t return to levels before the global recession.
“A return to past growth and demand patterns is unlikely -- given drawn-out adjustments in the United States and Europe -- and many Asian economies therefore need to shift their composition of growth to be more focused on domestic demand,” the fund said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at
aito16@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aFHAbQp7Scx4