Belmont Stakes Service Plays Saturday 06/06/09

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John Piesen Belmont Full Card

John Piesen Belmont Full Card

Race
#1 3-1-9
#2 7-6-3
#3 8-2-10
#4 4-3-2
#5 3-4-7
#6 6-5-3
#7 2-5-6
#8 8-1A-2
#9 8-7-6
#10 1-2-5
#11 6-7-1-10
#12 1-6-3
#13 7-4-12

Play the top horse to Win and Place
Box all exotics
 
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Dave Tuley

The top contenders…

MINE THAT BIRD is at the head of the 3-year-old class (at least among the boys) with his victory in the Kentucky Derby and his equally impressive runner-up finish in the Preakness Stakes to the filly Rachel Alexandra, and he gets back the services of jockey Calvin Borel, who is going for an unprecedented sweep of the Triple Crown riding different horses. CHARITABLE MAN won the Peter Pan Stakes and is 2-for-2 over this Belmont track. DUNKIRK was the wise-guy horse before the Derby but was knocked around early and didn't get a chance to run his race.


How the race will be run…

With the 1 1/2-mile distance, don't expect anyone to set a torrid pace, but CHARITABLE MAN is expected to inherit the lead and he should be pushed by MINER'S ESCAPE from the barn of Nick Zito, who also trains BRAVE VICTORY. The rest of the field should be able to pick their spots and stalk the pace. This field is full of late runners such as MINE THAT BIRD, CHOCOLATE CANDY, MR. HOT STUFF, BRAVE VICTORY, FLYING PRIVATE and SUMMER BIRD, and it will likely come down to who gets first run on the leaders and who can sustain that bid.


My picks to win…

BRAVE VICTORY finished third in the Peter Pan over this track, but has legitimate excuses as he was too far back in that effort and should be more forwardly placed this time, plus jockey Rajiv Maragh lost his whip at the 3/16th pole yet BRAVE VICTORY still finished third. As a native New Yorker, Zito aims for this race as much as the Derby.

CHARITABLE MAN has only run one bad race in four career starts and that was on the synthetic surface at Keeneland; he's 3-for-3 on dirt and is the son of 1999 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. His jockey, Alan Garcia, won the Belmont last year in wire-to-wire fashion with Da'Tara to foil Big Brown's Triple Crown bid.
MINE THAT BIRD, who won the Derby at odds of 50-1, isn't flying under anyone's radar anymore. He has shown a very strong closing kick and as the son of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone (who foiled Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid) should be able to get the added distance. He might just have more trouble with fresher horses shooting at him.

My long shot…

SUMMER BIRD's story is a familiar one as he had a rough ride in the Derby and had to run wide and never really had a chance, yet he still finished a game sixth. Like MINE THAT BIRD, he is also a son of Birdstone. Look for a similar effort to when he closed strong in the Arkansas Derby. Four of the last nine Belmont Stakes races were won by horses that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness.
 
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Steve Davidowitz

The top contenders…
MINE THAT BIRD won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1, then was a strong 2nd to Rachel Alexandra at 6-1 in the Preakness Stakes, now he's probable 6-5 favorite; CHARITABLE MAN, lightly raced, has two stakes wins at Belmont including the recent Peter Pan Stakes; DUNKIRK was nowhere in Louisville, but was a solid 2nd in the Florida Derby; CHOCOLATE CANDY was an OK 5th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby; SUMMER BIRD gained ground when 6th in Kentucky Derby; MINER'S ESCAPE is improving for trainer Nick Zito, who won this in 2008 with DA'TARA; FLYING PRIVATE was 4th despite traffic problems in the Preakness Stakes for a trainer with four Belmont wins.


How the race will be run…
CHARITABLE MAN is the logical front runner, with only MINER'S ESCAPE likely to be close enough through the first six or seven furlongs to impact the pace. DUNKIRK, CHOCOLATE CANDY, SUMMER BIRD, FLYING PRIVATE and the strong finishing MINE THAT BIRD all have good rallies, with MINE THAT BIRD the strongest of them from what we have seen so far. But if any of the stretch runners have to use their speed earlier than usual, or if CHARITABLE MAN is coasting along at a moderate pace under jockey Alan Garcia (who rode DA'TARA to victory last year) then he will be an elusive target.


My picks to win…
CHARITABLE MAN, a long striding son of the 1999 Belmont Stakes winner LEMON DROP KID, is fresh and perfectly trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won it with JAZIL in 2006. He should control the pace throughout.

CHOCOLATE CANDY, a strong looking sort with several long workouts over the track seems set for improved try at good odds.

MINE THAT BIRD's extraordinary late kick was effective at 10 furlongs and 1-3/16 miles in Louisville and Baltimore. Can he sustain that form in a slower paced 12-furlong race? Can jockey Calvin Borel complete his personal Triple Crown sweep? Maybe, but at 6-5 or so, I'll pass. DUNKIRK has trained well for this; might rebound.
My long shot…

In addition to CHOCOLATE CANDY, who I listed as my second pick in this race and my fourth preference DUNKIRK, I will be including stretch running SUMMER BIRD on my Trifecta and Superfecta tickets. A son of 2004 Belmont stakes winner BIRDSTONE (just like MINE THAT BIRD), SUMMER BIRD has a good long workout over the track with blinkers on to improve his concentration. Like CHARITABLE MAN, SUMMER BIRD is coming into the Belmont fresh and fit with only four lifetime starts and room to improve.
 

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ATS Horse

Any 1 see ATS HORSE OF THE YR pick for today yet? THANKS


Enough with this request. It's in the service thread and a couple of times in here. We get it. Enough already.

If you need it that bad, why not get it yourself. It obviously looks like noone has it at this point and they rarely win anyway.
 

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Enough with this request. It's in the service thread and a couple of times in here. We get it. Enough already.

If you need it that bad, why not get it yourself. It obviously looks like noone has it at this point and they rarely win anyway.

Grumpy person you are. ~~:<<
 

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Grumpy person you are. ~~:<<
well, WTF :WTF:


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06-06-2009, 03:34 AM <!-- / status icon and date --></TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right> #2 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 0px solid" width=175>wilheim<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_6736635", true); </SCRIPT>
email person19481950@yahoodotcom



Join Date: Jul 2002
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</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_6736635 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid"><!-- icon and title -->
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Notice:
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Please post your requests, comps and any discussion in the appropriate threads specifically started for that particular information..



Thank you, wilheim
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Can you read. It's their forum and they make that request!

Otherwise, enjoy a ban. BTW, grumpy? NO.
 

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well, WTF :WTF:


<table class="tborder" id="post6736635" width="100%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="thead" style="border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130); border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; font-weight: normal;">
post_old.gif
06-06-2009, 03:34 AM <!-- / status icon and date --></td><td class="thead" style="border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130); border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; font-weight: normal;" align="right"> #2 </td></tr><tr valign="top"><td class="alt2" style="border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130); border-width: 0px 1px;" width="175">wilheim<script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_6736635", true); </script>
email person19481950@yahoodotcom



Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Rx. dot com..
Posts: 59,089
Blog Entries: 31


</td><td class="alt1" id="td_post_6736635" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(253, 222, 130);"><!-- icon and title -->
icon2.gif
Notice:
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Please post your requests, comps and any discussion in the appropriate threads specifically started for that particular information..



Thank you, wilheim
</td></tr></tbody></table>


Can you read. It's their forum and they make that request!

Otherwise, enjoy a ban. BTW, grumpy? NO.

I can read and I have seen this guy make a few rude responses to others. I never made the request.
 

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Bingo

SportsOddsAndPicks.com :

141st BELMONT STAKES

SUMMER BIRD to WIN -- Morning Line: 12-to-1
DUNDKIRK to PLACE -- Morning Line: 4-to-1
MINE THAT BIRD to SHOW -- Morning Line: 2-to-1


Good call.

Had that combo but with Dunkirk first, and the Birds second or third.
 

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