beckett is opening around -320 tomorrow

[meaculpa]

I'd give Boston a 92% chance of winning this game.

That's truly and totally unrealistic for any MLB-game.

A winning expectancy of 92% would imply fair odds of -/+1150 (excluding additional juice). Well, hell would freeze over before we'd see such a line on a baseball-game.

For what it is worth, -320 implies 76.2%. I presume if you think they have a chance of 80% to win, the BoSox are indeed the side to take.

 

[billhill999]

im not saying boston wont win, just dont think the bets will come in at -320

Correct.

Joe Sharp is not going to lay 32 to 10 on the outcome of any one game,
Joe Square looking to recoup his losses from last week will jump all over Oakland +260.
So what will probably happen is Sox will win 5-4, Joe Square takes it on the chin again, books collects those wagers, and pays off, well nobody, because Joe Sharp laid off the game.

Some sharpies may get hut by wagering Sox run line -130, they will get burnt as Oakland plays the Sox close, but fall like I said, 5-4.

Seen this a gaziilion times in my life.

Let's see.................

 

[olballcoach]

game might not get in because of weather

 

[a153]

Correct.

Joe Sharp is not going to lay 32 to 10 on the outcome of any one game,
Joe Square looking to recoup his losses from last week will jump all over Oakland +260.
So what will probably happen is Sox will win 5-4, Joe Square takes it on the chin again, books collects those wagers, and pays off, well nobody, because Joe Sharp laid off the game.

Some sharpies may get hut by wagering Sox run line -130, they will get burnt as Oakland plays the Sox close, but fall like I said, 5-4.

Seen this a gaziilion times in my life.

Let's see.................

"Joe Square will bet Oakland to recoup losses from last week" lolol

This is one of the dumbest posts you ever made.

 

[rolltide]

and that is saying something a153

at -320 bookies are basically just saying that Boston has a 76% chance of winning the game. If you feel they have more than a 76% chance of winning then you would agree the play has value. If you feel it's slightly less than 76% it has no value, so don't bet it.

For you to see value in Oakland +290 then you have to feel they would win this matchup more than 34% of the time...

 

[billhill999]

"Joe Square will bet Oakland to recoup losses from last week" lolol

This is one of the dumbest posts you ever made.

You get great pleasure out of stalking my posts don't you you moron.
Joe Square looks for a + 240 type line regardless of the circumstances.

 

[buffettgambler]

and that is saying something a153

at -320 bookies are basically just saying that Boston has a 76% chance of winning the game. If you feel they have more than a 76% chance of winning then you would agree the play has value. If you feel it's slightly less than 76% it has no value, so don't bet it.

For you to see value in Oakland +290 then you have to feel they would win this matchup more than 34% of the time...

Not to be a stickler, but in order to derive the implied line set probability, one has to adjust for the overround. Adjusting for such, and at the prices listed above, the implied line set probablity for Boston is 74.82%.
The 76.19% represents the break even percentage.
Also, that 34% would be true if the A's were +190.

 

[billhill999]

Consider the source Buffetgambler.

 

[a153]

You get great pleasure out of stalking my posts don't you you moron.
Joe Square looks for a + 240 type line regardless of the circumstances.

I haven't responded to one of your posts in a long time. When I see you spewing this nonsense I have to respond. You throw around the term square and sharp all the time like you have a clue, its funny.

 

[parlayallday]

I got the rl early at -115 sox win this game easy. i think the offense get going tonight.

 

[woodypaige]

I want to punch myself in the face for not taking the -1.5 runline, after posting why not to take Oakland. But tomorrow is another day!!!!:grandmais

 

[rolltide]

Correct.


Some sharpies may get hut by wagering Sox run line -130, they will get burnt as Oakland plays the Sox close, but fall like I said, 5-4.

Seen this a gaziilion times in my life.

Let's see.................

yawn, you bore us all with your drivel

I guess this is a gazillion -1 ??

fool @)

sharpie this, joe public that, but at least billhill stays the consistent comic usually doing his best work AFTER the game. here was a miserable, but unique, attempt at discussion BEFORE the game. shocker :>(