http://emsportspix.blogspot.com/EM SPORTS
CFB:
1.5 unit: Oregon +1.5
There are several reasons we're siding with Oregon, I'll mention one. We always like to see relative superiority of offensive and defensive efficiency when the strength of schedules are more/less even. Oregon has the more efficient offense, scoring a point for every 10.9 yards gained, compared to Auburn scoring a point for every 11.7 yards gained. What this infers is Oregon is able to put points on the board at a greater rate than Auburn given the equivalent yards gained -- an advantage you always want to see as a bettor given it's points that ultimately decide whether your wager is a winner or loser. Yes, amassing impressive yardage stats is desirable, but even more so you generally want to back teams that are better able to convert yardage into points. Likewise, you should prefer to see a defense that is very efficient, i.e. gives up fewer points scored vs. yards allowed. Oregon's defense allowed a point scored for every 18 yards gained on them. Auburn's defense allowed a point scored for every 14.8 yards gained versus them. Oregon has the more efficient defense, inferring that when it counts they buckle down within the red zone. We bettors care less if a defense is more porous in the middle of the football field as opposed to inside the red zone, where we want to see the D stiffen up and become extremely difficult to score on. It's worth noting that as good as the Phil Eagles were this season they had the worst-ranked red-zone defense in the NFL (as evidenced yesterday). In fact, the Eagles defense allowed a point for every 13.6 yards allowed, which was almost as inefficient as the lowly Carolina Panther defense (one point for every 13.2 yards allowed).
CFB:
1.5 unit: Oregon +1.5
There are several reasons we're siding with Oregon, I'll mention one. We always like to see relative superiority of offensive and defensive efficiency when the strength of schedules are more/less even. Oregon has the more efficient offense, scoring a point for every 10.9 yards gained, compared to Auburn scoring a point for every 11.7 yards gained. What this infers is Oregon is able to put points on the board at a greater rate than Auburn given the equivalent yards gained -- an advantage you always want to see as a bettor given it's points that ultimately decide whether your wager is a winner or loser. Yes, amassing impressive yardage stats is desirable, but even more so you generally want to back teams that are better able to convert yardage into points. Likewise, you should prefer to see a defense that is very efficient, i.e. gives up fewer points scored vs. yards allowed. Oregon's defense allowed a point scored for every 18 yards gained on them. Auburn's defense allowed a point scored for every 14.8 yards gained versus them. Oregon has the more efficient defense, inferring that when it counts they buckle down within the red zone. We bettors care less if a defense is more porous in the middle of the football field as opposed to inside the red zone, where we want to see the D stiffen up and become extremely difficult to score on. It's worth noting that as good as the Phil Eagles were this season they had the worst-ranked red-zone defense in the NFL (as evidenced yesterday). In fact, the Eagles defense allowed a point for every 13.6 yards allowed, which was almost as inefficient as the lowly Carolina Panther defense (one point for every 13.2 yards allowed).
HAMMERtheBOOK
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: (8:20 PM) OREGON DUCKS vs AUBURN TIGERS in THE BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME @ UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM in Glendale, Arizona (AUBURN PK @ BADLANDS, PLAY RELEASED @ 11:19 AM (ET) on 1/10/11)
NBA PLAYS
4-UNITS: (8:05 PM) DETROIT PISTONS @ CHICAGO BULLS (BULLS -9 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS, PLAY RELEASED @ 1:27 PM (ET) 1/10/11)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: (8:00 PM) AUSTIN PEAY @ TENNESSEE MARTIN (AUSTIN PEAY -10 1/2 @ BET PHOENIX, PLAY RELEASED @ 1:23 PM (ET) 1/10/11)
NHL PLAYS
3-UNITS: (9:35 PM) DETROIT RED WINGS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE (AV'S ML +115 @ 5DIMES, LEGENDZ, BET365 & BADLANDS, PLAY RELEASED @ 1:28 PM (ET) 1/10/11)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: (8:20 PM) OREGON DUCKS vs AUBURN TIGERS in THE BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME @ UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM in Glendale, Arizona (AUBURN PK @ BADLANDS, PLAY RELEASED @ 11:19 AM (ET) on 1/10/11)
NBA PLAYS
4-UNITS: (8:05 PM) DETROIT PISTONS @ CHICAGO BULLS (BULLS -9 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS, PLAY RELEASED @ 1:27 PM (ET) 1/10/11)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: (8:00 PM) AUSTIN PEAY @ TENNESSEE MARTIN (AUSTIN PEAY -10 1/2 @ BET PHOENIX, PLAY RELEASED @ 1:23 PM (ET) 1/10/11)
NHL PLAYS
3-UNITS: (9:35 PM) DETROIT RED WINGS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE (AV'S ML +115 @ 5DIMES, LEGENDZ, BET365 & BADLANDS, PLAY RELEASED @ 1:28 PM (ET) 1/10/11)
