BCS Busters... where their schedules are likely to kill most of them.

BigdaddyQH · May 30, 2009

Sorry OU fans, but OU could not beat their cheerleaders in a BCS game. Ever since LSU upset them and USC kicked them all over the field, they have been nothing but money burners in BCS Games. OU lost to the better team in Dallas last year, and in the NC game. Wagering against OU in a BCS game is gold. In case you haven't figured it out, I do not believe in making excuses for teams. You win or you lose. End of statement.

As far as the article is concerned, Boise and TCU have the only two shots at running the table. Boise has the easy road, but their OL is going to have to produce, and their DL is going to have to stop the run.

TCU is in the same boat. They have to stop the running game, and the loss of two top LB's is not going to help them. Virginia should be no problem. They are not a Top 50 team, much less a Top 25 team. Clemson is a more difficult task, but by no means impossible.

The rest of the teams listed are basically dreaming of what can be. I see no realistic chance of any of them running the table.

GoSooners · May 30, 2009

BigdaddyQH said:
Sorry OU fans, but OU could not beat their cheerleaders in a BCS game. Ever since LSU upset them and USC kicked them all over the field, they have been nothing but money burners in BCS Games. OU lost to the better team in Dallas last year, and in the NC game. Wagering against OU in a BCS game is gold. In case you haven't figured it out, I do not believe in making excuses for teams. You win or you lose. End of statement.

As far as the article is concerned, Boise and TCU have the only two shots at running the table. Boise has the easy road, but their OL is going to have to produce, and their DL is going to have to stop the run.

TCU is in the same boat. They have to stop the running game, and the loss of two top LB's is not going to help them. Virginia should be no problem. They are not a Top 50 team, much less a Top 25 team. Clemson is a more difficult task, but by no means impossible.

The rest of the teams listed are basically dreaming of what can be. I see no realistic chance of any of them running the table.

TCU has recruited well the last few years. But I would be more surprised to see them in a BCS game than I would BYU. TCU's bread and butter was their defense last season and the last few years. And they lose pretty much everybody off of that unit. Their offense was a cronic letdown for them last season. And now they're being asked to carry the team this year. Especially early on. I don't see it at all. In fact, I think they are going to have problems at Virginia in that first game (2nd for Virginia). Last time I looked TCU was still a non-BCS school. And non-BCS teams have a terrible record as road favorites over BCS conference schools. So the line will tell all in this game. I'm hoping the public will get a little too enamored with the TCU tradition in this game.

Conan · May 30, 2009

GoSooners said:
Conan...If Boise and BYU both have one loss a piece at the end of the season, I believe they would take BYU in a heartbeat over Boise. If they took either.. BYU has a much much tougher schedule from a better conference than Boise. Boise will have a couple roadblocks against Tulsa and Fresno. But I think both of those teams could be down a notch this year. La Tech also loses a fair share of starters. So I don't see too many problems there for Boise. But they HAVE to beat Oregon in that first game to go in my opinion. Especially since the game is being played at Boise. Losing on your home field isn't condusive to a non-bcs team making it to a BCS bowl. I haven't seen it happen yet.

I fully agree with everything you said, however I think there is another very real possibility in Boise's case that hasn't been mentioned which could tip the scales in their favor. How big a whuppin will they put on their opposition the rest of the way compared to how BYU looks winning their games. Boise could conceivably win by 4-5 TD's in a majority of their games, or possibly better than that. Moore has got the hang of their offense a lot more than he did last year when he was playing as a true freshman and looking as good as he did. That's insane. I think you will see even more this time.

I totally agree with you that compared to BYU, Boise's schedule will not make a good case for them, however it could actually help them if their wins turn out to be very convincing and BYU wins a few unexpected squeakers. A couple of close calls in unexpected games could hurt BYU's rank. I think that's entirely possible. In Boise's case, it's their favorable schedule that suggests they might look very impressive week after week if Peterson is willing to risk pulling out all the stops. The sword can cut both ways.

Keep an eye on Moore. He's the key to Boise's relevance in any scenario. He's just a sophomore. That sword can cut both ways too. If he has a great year (again,) he will draw a lot of attention to himself. But in a close vote, he may have to wait it out another year and concede to a senior laden BYU team. I'm thinking that either the Sugar Bowl or Fiesta Bowl will make their selection based in part on those factors. The ultimate choice is more complex than any of this but perahps a lot simpler.

Salt Lake City and Provo and the rest of the state of Utah promise a better choice from the perspective of the hotel operators and restauranteers. Unfortunately the bowl selection commitees are, above all else economically driven. That wouldn't be the first time that's been the deciding factor. How the season plays out may not even matter as much as it should. And as long as Orin Hatch (Utah Sen.) keeps his congressional crusade against the BCS alive, anything Utah could get the kid gloves treatment from the BCS. Both BYU and Utah have had NC's in the past. Now the cards are stacked against them so high it's practically impossible for them to ever get another opportunity.

GoSooners · May 30, 2009

Conan...I just don't see both Boise and BYU knocking off Oregon and OU on the same weekend. It's very unlikely. But if the improbable should happen, the country would look at BYU's win over the 3rd ranked team on a neutral field as MUCH bigger than Boise's win over Oregon. And I'm not sure what they do the rest of the season will go against them as long as the Mormons go undefeated. One thing that could really go our way though as far as making money off of these teams, if Boise beats Oregon or BYU beats OU in that first game, Peterson and Mendenhall will be sniffing for that BCS bid and will turn up the heat on those games that they know they can make it a lopsided score. Boise had 6 wins ATS in 2007 and a respectable 7 wins ATS last season with a young team and a dynamic young QB. This team is going to lay the hammer down on some of the WAC weaklings this season if they should beat Oregon. And probably even if they don't. Boise has been one of the best moneymakers in football for the last 10 years. So they are due again for a big ATS season.

Conan · May 31, 2009

GoSooners said:
Conan...I just don't see both Boise and BYU knocking off Oregon and OU on the same weekend. It's very unlikely. But if the improbable should happen, the country would look at BYU's win over the 3rd ranked team on a neutral field as MUCH bigger than Boise's win over Oregon. And I'm not sure what they do the rest of the season will go against them as long as the Mormons go undefeated. One thing that could really go our way though as far as making money off of these teams, if Boise beats Oregon or BYU beats OU in that first game, Peterson and Mendenhall will be sniffing for that BCS bid and will turn up the heat on those games that they know they can make it a lopsided score. Boise had 6 wins ATS in 2007 and a respectable 7 wins ATS last season with a young team and a dynamic young QB. This team is going to lay the hammer down on some of the WAC weaklings this season if they should beat Oregon. And probably even if they don't. Boise has been one of the best moneymakers in football for the last 10 years. So they are due again for a big ATS season.

Sometimes they lay very small numbers on the road and there are just a few teams that will contest them. At home you gotta lay more lumber but they tend to cover anyway. I'm sure the smurf turf has something to do with it. Some teams like Fresno might go to Boise looking like a pretty solid side and Boise will take exta good care of them. The weaker teams like Idaho have played like they hung up their cleats after 10 minutes. Teams like Hawaii who can't play well on the road are also a pretty good fade on the smurf turf.

You just size up their opponent and if they are on the upswing, play Boise small or stay off it and if they are on the downswing or playing flat, play Boise big. That's been my strategy for a few years and it's hit mostly winners that are played with that angle, and that angle has helped me avoid losers. I may not play them every week but I've managed to win most of the time when I play on them.

Rarely bet against them on the road and almost never at home. (Never is safer.) I felt like an idiot for fading them when it looked like a strong bet the other way. Even teams like Nevada should be taken with a grain of salt in their own house. But that upswing downswing thing is about the only method that seems to work.

I wouldn't depend too heavily on situational bets because they play like there's only one situation every week, that's the situation Peterson puts on them which is about playing to execute well. They can be beat but nothing seems to phase them. I give this team a lot of respect. It's much safer to think that way.

But that headhunting thing last year at Autzen was pretty cheap and I hope the Ducks end up taking some respect back in return. I'd like to see Blount run through their LB's and DB's like a beast instead of hurdling over them. He is capable of that and I hope to see it happen. The Ducks need a hit man who will make the Broncos think twice about challenging them. Patrick Chung, their punishing free safety went 2nd the 3rd round to New England. He was their "executioner" for years. I'm sure UoDucks has more to say about their new hit man. Whoever it is I am sure will be given a license to inflict pain.

OK now how do I really feel?