Battling the Books: Two College Playoff Plays | Mar 13
Last updated Mar 13, 2025
MAAC Quarterfinal Mt St Mary vs Marist
WAC Quarterfinal: Tarleton vs Cal Bap
If you’ve been following my basketball plays in the PredictEm forum you know I’ve latched on to a white hot system.
If you haven’t been following my basketball plays – why not?
I’m 26-22 in college and 7-5 in the pros, 55% combined, hitting my primary goals of:
1) Not losing (like 98% of sports bettors do)
and
2) Grinding out a profit.
In addition to my recommended plays, in just the last two days I’ve given out tips/angles/stat’s on games that I didn’t buy myself but went 1-0 in the NBA and 3-0 in college for four more winners. (I’ve been playing too tight lately, too conservative, I need to open it up and trust my numbers.)
But back to the white hot system.
I first brought attention to it a couple of days ago when it was at 1-8, giving me an 88% Fade.
That’s an unsustainable win percentage, right?
Regression to the mean is coming, right?
Well, since then I’ve been posting all plays that qualify in the forum and today it’s sitting at 2-14, good for an 87.5% Fade.
Again, that number is unsustainable but having banked a couple units by jumping on the streak early (instead of jumping on late when it’s already established and due to level out) I can play out the string until the record start to revert toward .500.
Jumping on trends that are already established is not the way to profitability (which is what many betters do, especially new ones – they look for trends to jump on or a hot handicapper to follow.)
Anticipating trends and getting on them early is how you make money in this game.
Of course that’s easier said than done.
In fact it’s very difficult.
But I’ve got a live one now, and got on it only nine games in.
It’s a simple system.
I have two methods I use to look for totals to play.
To keep things simple I’ll call them A and B.
When B says the game goes Over and A says it stays Under, B has a record of 2-14.
And when the differential between the stated total for both systems is 18 or greater the record is 0-3.
And I have one of those today.
Enough talk, let’s get to today’s two qualifying spots.
First up is Mt St Mary/Marist.
Game time 5:30 pm PST.
The line on this one opened at 126 and it’s down to 125′. Yeah the line looks pretty low but these two just played a few days ago and combined for 114 points. And in their only other meeting this year they combined for 103.
Average score per game 108.5.
That’s 16′ fewer than the number on tonight’s game
Next up, Tarleton/Cal Bap.
Game time 8:30 p.m. PST
This one opened at 127′ and that number is still readily available.
They played last week and combined for 116 points.
In their earlier meeting this year they combined for 124 points.
Average score 115 per game, 12′ points fewer than the number on today’s game.
And the point differential on this one is greater than 18, meaning it qualifies for the 0-3 subcategory noted above.
I may have one more play for today so be sure to check the forum.
Today’s plays:
Mt St Mary/Marist Un 125′Tarleton/Cal Bap Un 127′
College record (picks in articles): 1-3
