Ave's Plays

[averick]

#2 Newcastle to be in top position at end Aug: LAY
2 units

 

[Betting4Fun]

Hi,How much are you risking for each of these bets (EPL Laying)and in which book?thanks.

 

[averick]

Both the odds for these two bets are rather high:

Fulham is at 1000 and Newcastle at 80.

But if you look at the fixtures both these teams play two of the big four in august, i'm pretty sure they won't end up anywhere near the top.

Bets are placed at betfair

 

[rolltide]

Barclays Premier League - Month End Top-Aug
Live Scores Matched: USD 10,493

Back & Lay Market Depth More options

Selections: (20) Back (current odds)



Arsenal

3.35

Chelsea

5.9

Liverpool

9.6

Man Utd

11.5

Everton

11

Tottenham

16

Aston Villa

17

Man City

32

West Ham

17.5

Bolton

29

Newcastle

42

Portsmouth

50

Blackburn

42

Hull

42

Middlesbrough

48

Wigan

65

Sunderland

55

Fulham

140

Stoke

110

West Brom

95

 

[averick]

rolltide my 2 bets were laying the 2 teams and not backing them..

anyway manutd to finish top at 11.5 seems rather good value, what do u guys think?

 

[averick]

Here's my forecast of how the teams will stand come end august.
I'm experimenting quite abit now so all these predictions are for sharing as well as personal reference.

1. Man United
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
5. Aston Villa
6. Everton
7. Bolton Wanderers
8. Blackburn Rovers
9. West Ham United
10. Tottenham Hotspur
11. Middlesbrough
12. Hull City
13. Man City
14. WBA
15. Wigan Athletic
16. Sunderland
17. Stoke City
18. Fulham
19. Newcastle United
20. Portsmouth

It being only 3 games i would expect my table to go off by quite abit. Please do not use the table as a reference for your epl future bets!

 

[Betting4Fun]

Both the odds for these two bets are rather high:

Fulham is at 1000 and Newcastle at 80.

But if you look at the fixtures both these teams play two of the big four in august, i'm pretty sure they won't end up anywhere near the top.

Bets are placed at betfair

Fullham @ 1000?so your liability for $2 profit would be 2k?for $20,20k??

 

[averick]

unfortunately, yes.
i'm not one to bet against value but i would seriously be appalled to find them at the top of the table end august.

 

[TheBrainiac]

I would rather try to double up in Blackjack LMAO

 

[Betting4Fun]

unfortunately, yes.
i'm not one to bet against value but i would seriously be appalled to find them at the top of the table end august.

As much as you most likely right,what kind fo value do you find in laying 2k to earn $2?or laying $20k to earn 20$?does it really worth it?i mean c'mon that kind of bet is like backing Fullham not to win @1.001,would you bet on anything with that kind of return?it reminds return in the bank without fear of losing thousands for nothing.not here to bash you just to try and put some sense in your picks.GL to you..i like your pick but not at that cost,sorry..LOL

 

[averick]

As much as you most likely right,what kind fo value do you find in laying 2k to earn $2?or laying $20k to earn 20$?does it really worth it?i mean c'mon that kind of bet is like backing Fullham not to win @1.001,would you bet on anything with that kind of return?it reminds return in the bank without fear of losing thousands for nothing.not here to bash you just to try and put some sense in your picks.GL to you..i like your pick but not at that cost,sorry..LOL

yup, i agree with you that there is no value in the bet, just that i really don't see any way that my bet will lose. if it does, it will be a costly lesson then.

don't worry, you won't see me making such picks in the future.

will be posting a season forecast followed by opening day scorecasts tomorrow.

 

[averick]

What i am doing here is to see whether forecasting 4/5 scores per match will give me a profit in the long term. Note that this is experimental.

EPL Round 1

Arsenal v West Brom

Score
2-0 @ 6.00
2-1 @ 8.50
3-0 @ 7.50
1-0 @ 8.00
3-1 @ 12.00

Bolton v Stoke

Score
1-0 @ 7.00
1-1 @ 6.50
2-0 @ 7.50
2-1 @ 7.50
0-0 @ 9.00

Middlesbrough v Tottenham

Score
1-1 @ 6.50
2-1 @ 10.00
1-0 @ 8.50
1-2 @ 10.00
0-1 @ 8.50

Everton v Blackburn

Score
1-0 @ 7.50
1-1 @ 6.50
2-0 @ 8.50
0-0 @ 8.00
2-1 @ 8.00

West Ham v Wigan

Score
1-0 @ 7.00
1-1 @ 6.50
0-0 @ 8.50
0-1 @ 11.00
2-0 @ 7.50

Hull v Fulham

Score
1-1 @ 6.50
1-0 @ 7.50
0-1 @ 7.50
2-1 @ 9.50
0-0 @ 8.50

Aston Villa v Man City

Score
1-0 @ 8.00
2-0 @ 8.50
1-1 @ 6.50
2-1 @ 8.00
3-0 @ 19.0

Sunderland v Liverpool

Score
0-1 @ 7.00
0-2 @ 7.00
1-1 @ 6.50
1-2 @ 7.00
0-0 @ 10.00

Chelsea v Portsmouth
Score
2-0 @ 6.00
1-0 @ 7.00
3-0 @ 8.00
2-1 @ 8.00
1-1 @ 9.50

Man United v Newcastle
Score
2-0 @ 6.00
3-0 @ 7.50
1-0 @ 8.00
2-1 @ 8.00
4-0 @ 9.50

Each bet is for 1 (experimental) unit

 

[vse10k]

which book got u those numbers?

 

[averick]

Took them from http://www.sportspunter.com/betting?competitionid=1

 

[averick]

Barclay's Premier League 2008/2009 Final Position Forecast

1. Man Utd
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal

5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Everton
7. Aston Villa

8. Blackburn Rovers
9. WBA
10. Portsmouth
11. Middlesbrough

12. Bolton Wanderers
13. West Ham United
14. Fulham
15. Wigan
16. Newcastle

17. Man City
18. Hull City
19. Sunderland
20. Stoke City

Will look back at the end of the season to see how i've done.
The spaces in between the teams are what i what i feel are the gulf in team standards.

I wouldn't be surprised if WBA finish lower, with Philips and Gera gone.

 

[averick]

Will be off training in Taiwan for the next 3 weeks, all the best to whatever plays you guys make.

Will be back in full force for the EPL!

 

[averick]

Nothing much has caught my eye on the first week of matches for the epl so far.. been putting most of my money on the olympics.

Will probably be observing how the games go in terms of statistics, but might have something for the liverpool game later.

Anyway, going back to the scorecasts i posted in #152:

Arsenal 1 - 0 WBA
Total Profit: 8 units
Net Profit: 3 units (1 unit/bet on 5 scorelines)

Scorecast STD: 1-0-0 +3.00 units

 

[averick]

#3 Sunderland - Liverpool
Total Yellow Cards <3.5 @ 1.862
2 units

 

[averick]

EDIT:

#3 Sunderland - Liverpool
Total Yellow Cards <3.5 @ 1.862
3 units

the bet is for 3 units not 2, sorry.

 

[averick]

Scorecast results:

Bolton W. 3 - 1 Stoke C.
Net profit: -5.00 units

Middlesbrough 2 - 1 Tottenham H.
Net profit: +5.00 units

Everton 2 - 3 Blackburn R.
Net profit: -5.00 units

West Ham U. 2 - 1 Wigan Athletic
Net profit: -5.00 units

Hull C. 2 - 1 Fulham
Net profit: +4.50 units

Scorecast STD: 3-3 -2.50 units