The reasonable approach would be to select a winning poster who its assumed cannot keep up their current run
It might appear reasonable, but it is not. Results don't even out. If a player goes 60% for the first half of the season and he's a coinflipper, he's likely to go 50% - not 40% - over the second half of the season. Fading someone who is "hot" thinking that their results will even out is a sure route to failure.