Apothic Football Thread

[Apothic]

Play both sides tonight Brasil

Use attached link to figure out amounts needed for profit (Draw 31%) If draw you lose so 69% you win (2-Unit Play)

Figueirense (BRA-A) +115
Avai (BRA-A) +296


http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/arbitrage-calculator/

 

[Apothic]

9/17-As of now no good plays today, other than both sides of Liverpool game. Use calculator posted above to figure odds. 30% chance of draw; if draw you will lose. 70% win percentage.

 

[Apothic]

The Liverpool play above will be a (2-Unit) Play

 

[indiana]

Apothic...........on them both.........BOL today with your action.........indy

 

[Apothic]

Apothic...........on them both.........BOL today with your action.........indy

I do these all the time. You will win more often than not. On a few rare occasions we will play win / draw / lose for a true arbitrage play. I will post more of these as I find them. You can find these plays on your own but the draw % will kick your ass if you don't know the %


I will post weekly recap sat morning with updated stats

 

[Apothic]

9/18 Plays

Germany Bundesliga II

Bocum (-109)(2-Unit)

*61% Win / 25% Draw / 13% Loss
**1[SUP]st[/SUP] place vs. 15[SUP]th[/SUP] Place
***6 scored /1 conceded at home for Bocum
****Capped at 2-0



Holland

Volendam (+133)(1-Unit)

*Visitors win in this league
**55% Win / 24% Draw / 21% Loss
***1[SUP]st[/SUP] vs 11[SUP]th[/SUP] place
****13 scored / 2 conceded for Volendam away
*****Capped (2-0)

Holland Cont…

Go Ahead Eagles (-158)(2-Unit)

*67% Win / 20% Draw / 13% Loss
**Capped 1-0

France League II

Tours +281(1-Unit)

*47% Win / 28% Draw / 25% Loss
**Capped 2-1
***3 scored / 2 conceded for Tours away
****2 scored / 6 conceded home team

Laval +245(1-Unit)

*48% Win / 28% Draw / 25% Loss
**Capped (2-1)

 

[indiana]

Apothic..........on Ger and Fr. ...........still trying to fine Holland , my book has a diff league.............BOL with all your action tomorrow..........indy

 

[Apothic]

Never too early for Hockey (Morning Play 9/18)

Russian KHL

Automobilist Yekaterinburg v Avangard Omsk

Avangard Omsk @ -105

*Capped 3-1 (2nd Place vs 9th Place)
**Avangard offense is #2 going against #17 defense
***Avangard defense is #6 going against #12 offense

 

[Apothic]

Apothic..........on Ger and Fr. ...........still trying to fine Holland , my book has a diff league.............BOL with all your action tomorrow..........indy

Good Luck. Been kinda an up and down week, haven't had one for a while so we will press on to the weekend!

 

[Apothic]

Well today was a perfect ending to a crappy week. Never seen so many goals in garbage time to kill the win with a draw. The hockey game ended in a draw with 40 sec left; they get a goal. Hope everyone used proper money management and bet out of games in live betting if they could. I am looking at games for weekend but I am going to hedge them with the draw line and see how we do. If I can't find any I will let you all know.

 

[Apothic]

9/18 Tonight Mexico

Atlas (MEX)/Santos Laguna (MEX) Over 2½ -124(2-Unit)

*Capped 2-1 ; 2-2 draw
**Both defenses suck
***10 goals allowed by Santos last 5 / 8 goals allowed by Atlas
****74% this goes over 2.5

Been looking at this closely, especially after the shit week. These teams are equally bad all the way around think we can get one back here

 

[Apothic]

9/19 Play ***Only Play Before Noon

Russia

Spartak Moscow (PK;-1/2)(-117)(2-Unit)

*6 scored one conceded away for Spartak
**1 scored 5 conceded Kuban at home
***67% Win / 19% Draw /13%Loss (Note: PK covers draw possibility)
****#15 offense at home vs #2 defense away
*****#3 offense away vs # 11 defense at home
******Home field is disadvantage for Kuban / Visitors win more often than not
*******League Draws are at 29%
********Capped at 2-1

 

[Apothic]

Note: New criteria for plays under 75% win chance and over 20% chance of draw (league draw % divided by game draw %) will have a (pk) component to cover draws; Any game over 75% win probability will not have this criteria. O/U plays will be posted before W/L plays to eliminate draw possibility when available.

 

[indiana]

Apothic...........on the Atlas o2.5........BOL with your action...........indy

 

[Apothic]

live2sport.com has the Mexican game stream. Worst soccer you will ever see. these teams are worse than my sons club team!

 

[Apothic]

Well that solidifies my week 2-0 final ; 1 goal called back that was questionable at best and a PK not given. On to Russia. Indy and everyone else don't play more than 2% until I get back on track

 

[indiana]

Apothic........we all have those runs that don't go our way..........it will turn............BOL with your action Sat..........indy

 

[Apothic]

New plays this week. Took the weekend off

 

[Apothic]

9/21 Play

Sweden Superettan

GAIS Over 2-1/2 (-104)(2-Units)

*10th Place vs 16th place bad defenses on both sides
**12 Scored / 17 Conceded @ Home
***11 Scored / 19 Conceded Away
**** Capped at 4 goals

 

[indiana]

Apothic..........BOL with your action today......my book only has allsvenskan.........hope your week end was great............indy