Anybody factor the umpire in Over/Unders?

[Mr.Misanthrope]

Kevy,
I didn't learn much from the book but maybe that's because most of it was over my head. You can tell Murray really did his homework and if you're a mathemataical whiz its worth a look. He does have one section about survival that every baseball bettor should read. Some of his key points are:

Understand that you have no control over what happens in a game. Once you play it, forget it. If winning/losing is so important to you regardless of the amount wagered, don't watch the game.
Don't let the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat affect your next play.
You are never as good as you think you are when you are hot, nor as bad as you think you are when you are cold.
Never get tired of other people's opinions.
Never put too much stock in other people's opinions.
Keep in mind that the line is the sum total of the ignorance of the betting public. Never overestimate the general public's ability to pick winners.
Don't be stupid.
Don't be greedy.
Keep a cool head.

 

[Fishhead]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by The MD Kid:
Fish,
I agree, the base on ball factor (or more precisely - the walk to strikeout ratio) is the much more important stat to look at when comparing umps. And you absolutely MUST take a large sample (several years of games) to make a legitimate evaluation. I have spent countless hours acquiring stats on every ump in MLB since 1997. I have them ranked in order - using data on over/under record, strikeout/walk ratio, and ball/stike ratio. I've weighted the more recent year's games higher, since any umpire can change his spots. I have also ranked the umpires for their "homer" tendancies (home/away record in games where they are behind the plate). Interestly, Fish, the ump that you mention as a great "under" ump (Montague), is also one of the alltime best "road" umps (take the road team when he is behind the plate), too. Won for me today again, btw. Incidentally, I have done the same analysis for NBA refs, also, if anyone's interested.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thanks MD.......I really like your HOME/ROAD angle.

 

[100KbyXMAS]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by The MD Kid:
Incidentally, I have done the same analysis for NBA refs, also, if anyone's interested.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

MDKid,
I'm interested. I've looked at the NBA ref data at covers and there is some great numbers. Couple questions.
Do you look at how a team of refs does a game? I.E. What happens when an Under ref works with an OVER ref and a neutral. Are there some that go under no matter who they work with? Do 2 UNDER refs make a game even more likely to go UNDER? Does the NBA have a head ref, someone who will influence the game more than the other 2 refs? Also, why do you think a guy like Jack Nies, for example, goes from being an anti-homer last year. (61 out of 64) to being a homer this year. (6 out of 62) Does the NBA say something, or maybe just the sample of games is too small. Thanks.

 

[TheMDKid]

100k,
I only look at individual refs, just like Covers does. I don't believe there is a "head ref" per se, but there are a few refs that always do seem to take charge when they are reffing. Also, I have only done an analyis of home/road stats. The reason for this is that I can't see how a ref can affect a total score significantly. Calling more fouls might tend to make the score go over, but I haven't seen any persuasive evidence that this is indeed true. Anyway, my home/road analysis is based on 7 years of data. As I mentioned before, it is imperative that you use this large of a sample to evaluate the refs. If you fall into the trap of relying on one year's data, then you'll end up with cases like you discovered with Jack Nies. I suspect that the NBA might say something to refs that are at the higher or lower end of the rankings, and I also suspect that the refs can change on their own. In addition, randomness of the outcome plays a big part. Therefore, just like with MLB umps, I give each suceeding year more and more weight, with the present year getting the highest weighting. Tommorrow I plan on updating my records (I'm missing the last 2 1/2 months), so I'll let you know the higher and lower rated refs when I'm done.

 

[TheMDKid]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>What happens when an Under ref works with an OVER ref and a neutral. Are there some that go under no matter who they work with? Do 2 UNDER refs make a game even more likely to go UNDER?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What I do is to take the rankings of all three refs for each game and average them to come up with a total homer ranking for each game. If the total ranking is above or below some fixed number I play that angle.

 

[MrTeaser]

Haha Bulldog and I think mlb would not let Gregg come back because of that series. That was the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen and it wasnt because I lost a bet. I had no bet on the game. But as a fan of the game it was disgusting.

[This message was edited by Mr Teaser on April 29, 2004 at 08:17 PM.]

 

[MeantownScum]

How does one learn in advance which NBA refs are working a particular game?

 

[TheMDKid]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>How does one learn in advance which NBA refs are working a particular game?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Several sites including USAToday.com will give lineups and refs, but not until about 10 minutes before G.T.

 

[TheMDKid]

After updating the NBA referee home/away stats thru 2004, I've come up with 4 refs that have a weighted average of over 55% home team winners ATS in games they have referee'd for the past 7 seasons:

Sean Corbin ... 57.1%
Tom Washington ... 56.5%
Ron Olesiak ... 55.2%
Greg Willard ... 55.1%



Conversely, these refs have a weighted average of over 55% road team winners ATS:

Joe Crawford ... 55.9%
Blaine Reichelt ... 55.2%
Monty McCutchen ... 55.1