this looks good boxslayer.. the only advice I would give to you would be to separate the NL from the AL... as both leagues have unique averages and since they don't play one another very often it would be best to separate them I think.. good luck with this.. i enjoy working in excel as well
This sounds exactly like what I do.
The only difference is you have to have a perfect formula to convert the power rating difference from each team to corralate to the moneyline. If your formulas are messed up, its nothing more than a big pile of useless numbers.
For instance is TEAM A has a powerating against teamB with a lefty of 43 points more than team B. You need to be able to convert that into the money line.
The only difference in what your spreedsheet does and mine is I dont know how to make it automatically update everyday.
I have to update mine every monday manually.
I'm not familiar with vlookup charts but they sound like a pain in the ass..
I was making rudimentary power ratings on offense last year and this past year and the first time I did it i didn't separate the leagues and I noticed my lines were way off.
For the pitchers ratings I honestly wouldn't put much weight at all on the pitchers win/loss record just because a pitcher could have a 3.5 era and be 5-7 (especially if he pitches on a club with weak offense) plus the idea that one pitcher gets better runs support than others is basically just random distribution that changes each season.
For pitchers what I like to do is calculate the ERA using the various component ERA's.. The most complicated one is DIPS (defense independent pitching)
here's how it's calculated in excel if anyone wants to use it.. All you have to do is adjust for Righty/Lefty and or Knuckleballer or not Knuckleballer
on the sheet 1=yes and 0=no.. so if you have a lefty pitcher who is not primarily a knuckleballer just plug in the basic stats required and put "1" under "no Knuckle?" and put a 1 under "lefty" and a 0 under "righty"
View attachment dipsexample.xls
Awesome start Box....I am new to system capping I was just wondering why you use aggregate team stats and not actually use individual stats and weight them based on the hitter. Is this feasible? It seems to me like it would provide a more accurate approximation of the pitcher/batter confrontations.
hey box, email me.. my email is my rx screename @hotmail.com.. I have a pretty good method for making offensive power ratings and I have a macro for it so I manually plug in the stats and run the macro to get the power ratings.. i may post it in here later
also, I just ordered this book from amazon called "baseball Hacks" , I haven't received it yet but it is supposed to be applicable to anyone trying to make their own databases using MySQL and some stat analysis program named "R" as well as some stuff on Access and Excel.
also, I just ordered this book from amazon called "baseball Hacks" , I haven't received it yet but it is supposed to be applicable to anyone trying to make their own databases using MySQL and some stat analysis program named "R" as well as some stuff on Access and Excel.
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I've done this in the past and it worked usually for the first month of the season or so then seemed to head south after that......
I'd wait until the lineups were posted then scrolled stats etc based on matchups hitter vs pitcher......if 6 of the 8 guys hit .250 or lower (at least double digit AB's) vs a pitcher I faded that team (as long as the pitchers #'s were decent also) and vice versa for 6/8 guys over .280 or better.
Won for awhile then flopped....no consistency with it, plus it was a SHITLOAD of work in a small amount of time. Now being married I have no time to do that either.
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That's very true. In fact, I was looking at some batter/pitcher matchups manually today and I was frustrated with not many games where enough data to show whether a batter (or multiple batters) with more than 10 at bats would do awful against a pitcher or not.
For instance, look at Phillies batters facing FLA's southpaw, Scott Olsen, tonight at sportsline: at first, seeing how there were more than 4 batters (The Wolf mentions 6 batters or more... probably more realistic) that doesn't seem to have a good history against Olsen.
<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 141pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="187"><col style="width: 78pt;" width="104"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 19pt;" width="25"> <col style="width: 12pt;" width="16"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl22" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 78pt;" x:str="Batter " height="17" width="104">Batter </td> <td class="xl22" style="width: 32pt;" width="42">Avg</td> <td class="xl22" style="width: 19pt;" width="25">AB</td> <td class="xl22" style="width: 12pt;" width="16">H</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl22" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Pat Burrell " height="17">Pat Burrell </td> <td class="xl23" x:num="0.214">0.214</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">14</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl22" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Jimmy Rollins</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="0.188">0.188</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">16</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl22" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Chase Utley</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="0.125">0.125</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">16</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl22" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Shane Victorino " height="17">Shane Victorino </td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">0.200</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">10</td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">2</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Of course, this alone didn't help me to either fade the PHI batters (or be on PHI pitcher, Hamels). I ended up backing off from this game, as an example.
P.S. However, I completely agree with another poster who said something about using batter vs pitcher rather than batter vs team. Works the same with pitching. I don't give a flying flick if a pitcher has 15 starts against a team and going 7-3 with 2.80 ERA if most of those starts were against the team when they hadn't brought in some big hitters in the last year or so. (Who knows, those big hitters had good numbers against this particular pitcher while playing for other teams in the past, etcetera)
* CalvinTy
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What I need help with, and maybe 1 or 2 people might want to volunteer for the job and discuss it together....
is i want someone to go to mlb.com, and go through each of the 30 teams, and label each one a predominantly left handed hitting lineup, right handed hitting lineup or both
and really it comes down to the big bats for me
i dont care if the 1, 6, 8 and 9 hole hitters are lefties. That would be a right handed hitting team. The big bats are what I look at. Basically the top 5-6 bats in the order.
If 1, 2, 4, and 5 are lefties, they would be labeled as a left handed hitting team even though 4 out of 9 bats are lefty.
If 1 is righty, 2 is lefty, 3 is lefty, 4 is righty, 5 is righty, 6 is lefty
thats a mix
etc
if someone could label each team for me on an excel sheet so i can copy paste, that help would me
is i want someone to go to mlb.com, and go through each of the 30 teams, and label each one a predominantly left handed hitting lineup, right handed hitting lineup or both
and really it comes down to the big bats for me
i dont care if the 1, 6, 8 and 9 hole hitters are lefties. That would be a right handed hitting team. The big bats are what I look at. Basically the top 5-6 bats in the order.
If 1, 2, 4, and 5 are lefties, they would be labeled as a left handed hitting team even though 4 out of 9 bats are lefty.
If 1 is righty, 2 is lefty, 3 is lefty, 4 is righty, 5 is righty, 6 is lefty
thats a mix
etc
if someone could label each team for me on an excel sheet so i can copy paste, that help would me
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