The market has yet to react at all to the lineup information in the Dodgers game. Reed, Murphy, Schneider vs. Tatis, Santos, and Evans is woth 3 cents more against Kuroda's RHP style. Adding the Lorretta for Loney, and my valuation of the Mets has gone from +143 to +136 with a margin of safety of 6 cents. Still no play for me, but for those who valued the Mets higher than my valuation and have yet to place a position of them, should probably do it now before the market reacts.
I got in at the same price in regards to the Yankees.
TB is trading at 7% higher than my entry point last night, but I still think there is some value left on the table here. The market conistently overvalued the Blue Jays the last two months, and they are overly bearish on Kazmir since his return. The market seems to be heading in the right direction here, but still has some way to go for it to close around my fair value.
I took Houston RL at +125 value as Buffett had it perfectly read out and Wandy pitching a gem. I also took under of SD/Arizona with below offenses going head to head with low total expecting low run results.
I see were the market is being bearish with Kazmir and even myself got caught thinking it. I'm a big believer in fading Toronto. Mr. Ricciardi is an acquaintance of mine (MA) and it seems he will be unloading some goods. He's realized that Toronto can't represent a big market city in the toughest of divisions, the AL EAST. Hopefully, he can keep his job.
I'm playing the Rays (-155), Over LAAngels/Texas (10) , Cincinatti (+135) , Ny Yankees (-148) and played at (-150), smaller play on Mets (+136). Rays and Mets with Buffett's analysis. I'm waiting on one more with lineup variation to play into overall pricing.
GEKKO
The markets most efficient lines are set about the half way point when lineups are dissemninated and firs pitch (about 15-20 minutes before game time). This notion holds especially true if you are using Pinny (or partially Pinny) as market effeciency determination. The non-vig line the market proccessed as -139/139, so if you got in at +143 that is a +EV bet using market efficiency determination as your sole premise. I am not sure why the market is taking it where it took it, but I have no position on this game .
Best of luck.
Thanks Buffett. I definitely look at the line moves overnight and during the day on pinnacle and question everything that may affect the game itself, (without just throwing the postives on my side and putting the negative away, no that's not how it works i cap the right way), and with a gut scene to see if the line i buy is value or undervalued, putting myself in +EV long run situation which i would think.
I won't take good info from experienced and knowledgeable handicapper like yourself for granted like many others here do and not take the chance to learn and improve instead i will try to expand it into my handicapping.
