Free throws are such a factor at the end of not only NBA games , but also NCAA. Usually,if a team does not have a comfortable lead at the end of a game and the points are on an average basis, your under is definitely in jeopardy of going over every single time.
very well said hache, i always take into account how close i foresee the teams to be at the end of the 4th before betting an under.
very well said hache, i always take into account how close i foresee the teams to be at the end of the 4th before betting an under.
in just about EVERY sport the value is almost ALWAYS on the dog and under! this is because "joe q public" LOVES betting the fave and over - and the books know this - which is why they make them lay 1/2 a point more than they should on the side/total in sports where sides have 1/2 point spreads (NFL/NBA).
I am wondering if you people would find answers that are more pertinent by focusing upon a team's home-court advantage as seen by team foul discrepancies as well as particular officiating crews.
How about...
What is the average fouls called per NBA game?
How does this average compare to the different teams on the road as opposed to at home?
How do the different officiating crews of the NBA compare to this average?
What affect do fouls have upon the deep as opposed to the shallow teams of the NBA?
How about...
What is the average fouls called per NBA game?
How does this average compare to the different teams on the road as opposed to at home?
How do the different officiating crews of the NBA compare to this average?
What affect do fouls have upon the deep as opposed to the shallow teams of the NBA?
Regular season through last year. I don't have this years stats.
YEAR Overs Unders %
1994 496 517 49.0%
1995 518 518 50.0%
1996 511 520 49.6%
1997 594 526 53.0%
1998 564 546 50.8%
1999 361 327 52.5%
2000 553 579 48.9%
2001 569 595 48.9%
2002 580 575 50.2%
Total 4746 4703 50.2%
Playoffs through two years ago. I don't have the last two years stats. Overs are around 43-21 or something crazy like that this year.
YEAR Overs Unders %
1994 33 44 42.9%
1995 36 35 50.7%
1996 33 34 49.3%
1997 30 40 42.9%
1998 27 42 39.1%
1999 30 34 46.9%
2000 33 39 45.8%
2001 37 33 52.9%
Total 259 301 46.3%
YEAR Overs Unders %
1994 496 517 49.0%
1995 518 518 50.0%
1996 511 520 49.6%
1997 594 526 53.0%
1998 564 546 50.8%
1999 361 327 52.5%
2000 553 579 48.9%
2001 569 595 48.9%
2002 580 575 50.2%
Total 4746 4703 50.2%
Playoffs through two years ago. I don't have the last two years stats. Overs are around 43-21 or something crazy like that this year.
YEAR Overs Unders %
1994 33 44 42.9%
1995 36 35 50.7%
1996 33 34 49.3%
1997 30 40 42.9%
1998 27 42 39.1%
1999 30 34 46.9%
2000 33 39 45.8%
2001 37 33 52.9%
Total 259 301 46.3%
I`ve always noticed more unders in the Play-offs and beginning of the season...4th quarter defense in the NBA Playoffs a big reason...
Hammy I know lately overtime has been an issue with games going over but UNDER is the only play , think about it logically, most gamblers want to see action, therefore most totals will rise ...Unless the oddsmaker is accounting for this ahead of time....Anyone I`ve ever talked to that has any clue about this subject says play under or don`t play...
Its hard for alot of players to play under than watch a game and root for basically no scoring?
Hammy I know lately overtime has been an issue with games going over but UNDER is the only play , think about it logically, most gamblers want to see action, therefore most totals will rise ...Unless the oddsmaker is accounting for this ahead of time....Anyone I`ve ever talked to that has any clue about this subject says play under or don`t play...
Its hard for alot of players to play under than watch a game and root for basically no scoring?
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by hamneggs:
At least in games where there is a legit chance of overtime, the under always risks overtime.
I have won two overs in NBA in the past week solely because of overtime.
I hear that sharps mostly play unders, any truth to that?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
hamneggs,
No offense buddy, but if I were a bookmaker reading this thread, I'd be salivating at the thought of having you as a customer, lol...
Betting NBA totals with the mindset that they may go into overtime is one of the dumbest things I have heard in a long time...
As far as Professional gamblers betting more UNDERS than OVERS, you are 100% correct, and the ratio is roughly a 2-1 margin...
THE SHRINK
At least in games where there is a legit chance of overtime, the under always risks overtime.
I have won two overs in NBA in the past week solely because of overtime.
I hear that sharps mostly play unders, any truth to that?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
hamneggs,
No offense buddy, but if I were a bookmaker reading this thread, I'd be salivating at the thought of having you as a customer, lol...
Betting NBA totals with the mindset that they may go into overtime is one of the dumbest things I have heard in a long time...
As far as Professional gamblers betting more UNDERS than OVERS, you are 100% correct, and the ratio is roughly a 2-1 margin...
THE SHRINK
The thread title is intended to be an attention grabber..lol, glad that it got your attention.
I noticed that at least 3 NBA playoff TOTALS (recent ones) have been decided by OT. 3 games that would have gone under but for OT. I have not confirmed it, but I think that is right.
It is good to know the betting habits of sharps, and thank you for sharing. A sharp will play only 1 over for every 2 unders. Good to know. thanks.
and excuse the bump, just didn't see this 'til now
I noticed that at least 3 NBA playoff TOTALS (recent ones) have been decided by OT. 3 games that would have gone under but for OT. I have not confirmed it, but I think that is right.
It is good to know the betting habits of sharps, and thank you for sharing. A sharp will play only 1 over for every 2 unders. Good to know. thanks.
and excuse the bump, just didn't see this 'til now
ham, now all you need is a book that allows you to do this...
Yes Hi, I would like an if bet for tomorrows Dallas, San Antonio Game.....
sure, sir go ahead..
Ok, if Dallas and San Antonio goes into overtime, then give me the Over, risking 110/100....
The search is on.....somewhere, someone will take that, now go boy, go
Yes Hi, I would like an if bet for tomorrows Dallas, San Antonio Game.....
sure, sir go ahead..
Ok, if Dallas and San Antonio goes into overtime, then give me the Over, risking 110/100....
The search is on.....somewhere, someone will take that, now go boy, go
LOL, would be more like 11000/10000 on the OVER if the prop bet wins.
Will check with CT to see if there are outs that will take this axn (just kidding, folks
)
On a serious note, would ya'll say that the REASON why sharps end up playing 2x as many UNDERS as OVERS is because the public tends to pound the over and inflate the line? thanks
Will check with CT to see if there are outs that will take this axn (just kidding, folks
On a serious note, would ya'll say that the REASON why sharps end up playing 2x as many UNDERS as OVERS is because the public tends to pound the over and inflate the line? thanks
Personally, I value the information from the locker room regarding NBA totals…knowing the coach's game plan is vital as to whether a coach plans on playing a half-court (slow pace) or full-court (run and gun) game…this should be your determining factor in which way to wager.
This works particularly well in college hoops when totals are posted.
This works particularly well in college hoops when totals are posted.
hammy
my ratio is not as high as cecil's, but it is probably close to 9 unders / 1 over (all sports)
if you remember my contest with rod (a full month), i was keeping track iof that contest and by the end, i had 91% of dogs and unders, only 9 % overs and favs. rod was close to 70% overs and favs, 30% dogs and unders. and you know how it finished
just kidding with you. i really think that at least 70% of the time, overs and favs have no value whatsoever.
my ratio is not as high as cecil's, but it is probably close to 9 unders / 1 over (all sports)
if you remember my contest with rod (a full month), i was keeping track iof that contest and by the end, i had 91% of dogs and unders, only 9 % overs and favs. rod was close to 70% overs and favs, 30% dogs and unders. and you know how it finished
just kidding with you. i really think that at least 70% of the time, overs and favs have no value whatsoever.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Sounds good, Spive, but how are we to get into the coaches head? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, I think someone here was planing to setup a folder for the up-coming NFL season, which would hold local information regarding each team.
May I recommend paying close attention to what a head-coach says during the PRE-season...
Or
You could have just played the "Buck Showalter" RANGERS this past 3-game series in New York against the heavily favored Yankees...
Thomson, Rangers finish off Yanks
Texas sweeps three games for first time in New York
NEW YORK --After dropping three straight games in Boston, the Rangers entered Yankee Stadium on Friday needing a heavy duty shovel to rescue them from a hole which they were seemingly buried.
They will head back to home to Texas after Sunday's 5-1 victory and a three-game sweep of the Yankees in the Bronx with a completely different piece of equipment in mind.
Hint: it's used mostly for cleaning floors.
"It is a good feeling, but it's not like we are opening up bottles of champagne or anything," Rangers first baseman Rafael Palmeiro said. "We salvaged the road trip after a disaster in Boston. I think it tells a lot about our team coming in here and winning these three games."
The three-game sweep in The House that Ruth Built were a first for the Rangers in franchise history and the first time Texas has won all of the games in a series at Yankee Stadium since the club won both games in a two-game series in 1983.
"We had a tough start to the road trip and it's a great way for us to finish it off," Rangers manager Buck Showalter said. "We were 3-3 on the road trip and that's not good enough for us to get where we need to go. But after the start in Boston, it's a pick me up."
The victory was due in large part to a complete game from starter John Thomson (3-4) on Sunday. Thomson allowed three hits, one run and a career-high five walks for his third victory. He also racked up eight strikeouts in nine strong innings, his second complete game of the season.
It was also first complete game victory for a Texas pitcher since Kenny Rogers accomplished the feat last June.
"To come in here with that lineup and pitch effectively, I feel great for John," Showalter said. "He's fought through a lot of adjustments and for him to get that type of return for it in that arena is pretty special."
But the Rangers' offense got off to a slow start.
Trailing 1-0 after three complete innings, Yankees starter Mike Mussina appeared on his way to another scoreless frame in the fourth, but Rafael Palmeiro stepped into the batter's box with another idea.
The 38-year-old veteran hit a single to right field -- into one of the few holes in the newly popular "Palmeiro shift" -- with two outs and Juan Gonzalez followed with a two-run home run, his 14th homer of the season, to push the Rangers ahead, 2-1.
Gonzalez's home run came on a 0-2 count and marked his sixth career home run off Mussina. Ruben Sierra followed with a single, but Mussina recovered to get Michael Young on a ground ball to end the inning.
The Rangers' lead was only one run, but the damage had been done. The visiting team was quickly building confidence and the seemingly invincible Mussina, who came into Sunday's finale leading the Majors in wins, was fallible after all.
"Juan's two-run home run got the karma headed back in our direction," Showalter said. "We were fortunate to get that type of pitch. That's the way they have pitching Juan all series and there was the potential for it. They were trying to climb the strike zone and if they don't get it up there, the ball will land where it landed."
And with momentum still on their side in the sixth, Alex Rodriguez picked up his second hit of the game -- this time a double to the gap in right center -- and scored when Palmeiro followed with a double to right field. Palmeiro narrowly escaped the tag of Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter at second base and his hustle proved pivotal when he eventually scored on a two-out error on Yankees second baseman Alfonso Soriano to extend the Rangers' lead to 4-1.
"I have not swung the bat well at all," said Rodriguez, who entered the game in an 0-for-14 slump. "I have been a little bit overaggressive and they have been very careful with me. That combination is not very good. I have to get back at what I did today -- swinging at strikes, being patient and taking the walks when they come."
Thomson breezed through Jeter and Jason Giambi for the first two outs in the bottom half of the sixth, but a walk to Bernie Williams almost came back to haunt him when the next batter, Hideki Matsui, smashed a double to the gap in left center field.
But speedy center fielder Donnie Sadler corralled the ball perfectly and kept Williams from scoring. Williams would not advance another base because Thomson struck out Jorge Posada swinging to end the inning and protect the three-run cushion.
"That was huge, a big out," Thomson said. "It was a 2-2 changeup. I used it more today than I have all season."
The series was also the first time Showalter managed at Yankees Stadium since 1995. The Rangers' skipper has downplayed the event the entire weekend.
"Personally, it meant the Rangers played three good games and our organization is one I am very happy to be a part of," he said. "We came back from three games in Boston and won in a tough arena."
Or have played...
The "John Gruden" Buccaneers against the favorite Oakland Raiders in this past Superbowl.
Or have played...
The "Dusty Baker" Cubs against the favorite NL Champions in Frisco about 3 weeks ago.
The common history repeats trend here Gents...Coaches, playing against their FORMER EMPLOYERS.
Now back to...
The question: "how are we to get into the coaches head?"
The Answer: Pay attention to what coaches say and do, while thinking about what YOU would or want to do if YOU were the COACH.
There, he's now in YOUR head.
Simple Game.
Well, I think someone here was planing to setup a folder for the up-coming NFL season, which would hold local information regarding each team.
May I recommend paying close attention to what a head-coach says during the PRE-season...
Or
You could have just played the "Buck Showalter" RANGERS this past 3-game series in New York against the heavily favored Yankees...
Thomson, Rangers finish off Yanks
Texas sweeps three games for first time in New York
NEW YORK --After dropping three straight games in Boston, the Rangers entered Yankee Stadium on Friday needing a heavy duty shovel to rescue them from a hole which they were seemingly buried.
They will head back to home to Texas after Sunday's 5-1 victory and a three-game sweep of the Yankees in the Bronx with a completely different piece of equipment in mind.
Hint: it's used mostly for cleaning floors.
"It is a good feeling, but it's not like we are opening up bottles of champagne or anything," Rangers first baseman Rafael Palmeiro said. "We salvaged the road trip after a disaster in Boston. I think it tells a lot about our team coming in here and winning these three games."
The three-game sweep in The House that Ruth Built were a first for the Rangers in franchise history and the first time Texas has won all of the games in a series at Yankee Stadium since the club won both games in a two-game series in 1983.
"We had a tough start to the road trip and it's a great way for us to finish it off," Rangers manager Buck Showalter said. "We were 3-3 on the road trip and that's not good enough for us to get where we need to go. But after the start in Boston, it's a pick me up."
The victory was due in large part to a complete game from starter John Thomson (3-4) on Sunday. Thomson allowed three hits, one run and a career-high five walks for his third victory. He also racked up eight strikeouts in nine strong innings, his second complete game of the season.
It was also first complete game victory for a Texas pitcher since Kenny Rogers accomplished the feat last June.
"To come in here with that lineup and pitch effectively, I feel great for John," Showalter said. "He's fought through a lot of adjustments and for him to get that type of return for it in that arena is pretty special."
But the Rangers' offense got off to a slow start.
Trailing 1-0 after three complete innings, Yankees starter Mike Mussina appeared on his way to another scoreless frame in the fourth, but Rafael Palmeiro stepped into the batter's box with another idea.
The 38-year-old veteran hit a single to right field -- into one of the few holes in the newly popular "Palmeiro shift" -- with two outs and Juan Gonzalez followed with a two-run home run, his 14th homer of the season, to push the Rangers ahead, 2-1.
Gonzalez's home run came on a 0-2 count and marked his sixth career home run off Mussina. Ruben Sierra followed with a single, but Mussina recovered to get Michael Young on a ground ball to end the inning.
The Rangers' lead was only one run, but the damage had been done. The visiting team was quickly building confidence and the seemingly invincible Mussina, who came into Sunday's finale leading the Majors in wins, was fallible after all.
"Juan's two-run home run got the karma headed back in our direction," Showalter said. "We were fortunate to get that type of pitch. That's the way they have pitching Juan all series and there was the potential for it. They were trying to climb the strike zone and if they don't get it up there, the ball will land where it landed."
And with momentum still on their side in the sixth, Alex Rodriguez picked up his second hit of the game -- this time a double to the gap in right center -- and scored when Palmeiro followed with a double to right field. Palmeiro narrowly escaped the tag of Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter at second base and his hustle proved pivotal when he eventually scored on a two-out error on Yankees second baseman Alfonso Soriano to extend the Rangers' lead to 4-1.
"I have not swung the bat well at all," said Rodriguez, who entered the game in an 0-for-14 slump. "I have been a little bit overaggressive and they have been very careful with me. That combination is not very good. I have to get back at what I did today -- swinging at strikes, being patient and taking the walks when they come."
Thomson breezed through Jeter and Jason Giambi for the first two outs in the bottom half of the sixth, but a walk to Bernie Williams almost came back to haunt him when the next batter, Hideki Matsui, smashed a double to the gap in left center field.
But speedy center fielder Donnie Sadler corralled the ball perfectly and kept Williams from scoring. Williams would not advance another base because Thomson struck out Jorge Posada swinging to end the inning and protect the three-run cushion.
"That was huge, a big out," Thomson said. "It was a 2-2 changeup. I used it more today than I have all season."
The series was also the first time Showalter managed at Yankees Stadium since 1995. The Rangers' skipper has downplayed the event the entire weekend.
"Personally, it meant the Rangers played three good games and our organization is one I am very happy to be a part of," he said. "We came back from three games in Boston and won in a tough arena."
Or have played...
The "John Gruden" Buccaneers against the favorite Oakland Raiders in this past Superbowl.
Or have played...
The "Dusty Baker" Cubs against the favorite NL Champions in Frisco about 3 weeks ago.
The common history repeats trend here Gents...Coaches, playing against their FORMER EMPLOYERS.
Now back to...
The question: "how are we to get into the coaches head?"
The Answer: Pay attention to what coaches say and do, while thinking about what YOU would or want to do if YOU were the COACH.
There, he's now in YOUR head.
Simple Game.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Every time you like the over, bet the under! Every time you like the under, BET THE OVER! But stick to it EVERY time! <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Don't quess...know which side is holding the VALUE...
If you don't know which side that is...
Just ask forum poster Don Marco...as his quote below would indicate his knowledge of VALUE.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> i really think that at least 70% of the time, overs and favs have no value whatsoever. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
ALWAYS play VALUE...whether it be OVER or UNDER.
Don't quess...know which side is holding the VALUE...
If you don't know which side that is...
Just ask forum poster Don Marco...as his quote below would indicate his knowledge of VALUE.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> i really think that at least 70% of the time, overs and favs have no value whatsoever. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
ALWAYS play VALUE...whether it be OVER or UNDER.
