Iceman said:
This will help EVERYBODY beat the spread.......and if your not doing it, it will cost one thousands over the course of a lifetime.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=361827&page=2&highlight=BEATING
This will help EVERYBODY beat the spread.......and if your not doing it, it will cost one thousands over the course of a lifetime.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=361827&page=2&highlight=BEATING
nflplayer said:
How do you know when a losing streak is coming or when you are going to win. Just because you lose this week, doesn't mean you will next and vice versa.
Gambling has no memory. So a proven CFB capper I follow went 0-4 last week, do I quit or continue to go forward. Sorry I don't quite understand
Iceman nobody knows but ride it while its hot. Hell if you don't like ACE's plays then middle them, I think you will get a few point middles and with exchanges out there how can you not make money, you would have to be totally lost. I admit I have followed cappers before and done well, but also have died too. Also I have been doing this a long time, so I can get a feel for what is happening. I can cap my games too, but when someone is way better than you so why go against it. If it aint, broke don't fix.
EveryGamblersDream said:
I have been saying that for awhile now...good to see someone agree with me!!!! :toast:
it's almost like people think we want to see their "crazy bow wow wow hot diggidy dog parlay lock of the year" bullshit.
idgetthemidget had some inside info that the Yankees where going to use a "contact swing" in a recent game (EXCELLENT JOB I MUST SAY)...but then he made the mistake of including a play (under 9.5 runs)..of course the play lost, but the Yankees lost the game too (so you could of won if you faded them)...if you believed the information to begin with... you should be able to make a play off of it on the other team...but since he had to make a pick...people blindly followed it and then bitched when it lost.
bznofx that is why if every poster new or old had money management, I think they would all do pretty well. Just look at most of the records here like ACE, Stewie 21, action and other cappers have done better than 50%. Not just a short while, I might add. Also 2 years is a long time, just look at what happened the last two years in real estate in Alberta and Vancouver, if you had bought even houses you would be doing pretty well. What about the run up in the states the last couple of years, I know not now. I look at it this way, even give me 6 months and I would bust the books ass because of all these crazy bonuses and many outs that offer 2%. Way back when ESBN ripped me off for crazy money most of the juice was 10%, not like 5% fridays, tuesdays or free half point. There was nothing like that and the information and forums out there are crazy too. No sometimes I don't even capp the games myself. If anyone caps their games, it takes along time, sometimes I spend 2+ sometimes looking at the matchups on covers and looking at the don best lines. It does take a lot of work, that is why I don't know why ACE even does this.
So the number one downfall of bettors is not have money management
Wrong. It's not betting +ev. Money management is the number one downfall of would be successfuls.
NFL you can't just jump off during a losing streak. A losing streak itself means nothing, just that you are suffering negative variance. If you believe the capper is profitable over the longrun there is no reason to stop following them, and if you feel you are at a stage where they aren't profitable then you shouldn't have been following them in the first place. You're being too results oriented and definately reading too much into shorterm results. For the record 2 years is a SHORT time.
if every poster new or old had money management, I think they would all do pretty well. Just look at most of the records here like ACE, Stewie 21, action and other cappers have done better than 50%.
If I get 100 monkeys to make 100 picks over the course of an nfl season chances are some will hit 60% by chance alone. Some of the 'winning' cappers here are just lucky and have been successful by pure chance. Others will be profitable, but you can't identify them by record alone unless it is statistically significant (which usually means winning over thousands of picks).
You are also giving most posters too much credit. It takes more than +ev (or a lucky run following a random capper) and money management to succeed. You also need patience and dicipline. Being sharp-minded doesn't hurt either and unfortunately for most (and fortunately for some) the majority of people are quite blunt.
Wrong. It's not betting +ev. Money management is the number one downfall of would be successfuls.
NFL you can't just jump off during a losing streak. A losing streak itself means nothing, just that you are suffering negative variance. If you believe the capper is profitable over the longrun there is no reason to stop following them, and if you feel you are at a stage where they aren't profitable then you shouldn't have been following them in the first place. You're being too results oriented and definately reading too much into shorterm results. For the record 2 years is a SHORT time.
if every poster new or old had money management, I think they would all do pretty well. Just look at most of the records here like ACE, Stewie 21, action and other cappers have done better than 50%.
If I get 100 monkeys to make 100 picks over the course of an nfl season chances are some will hit 60% by chance alone. Some of the 'winning' cappers here are just lucky and have been successful by pure chance. Others will be profitable, but you can't identify them by record alone unless it is statistically significant (which usually means winning over thousands of picks).
You are also giving most posters too much credit. It takes more than +ev (or a lucky run following a random capper) and money management to succeed. You also need patience and dicipline. Being sharp-minded doesn't hurt either and unfortunately for most (and fortunately for some) the majority of people are quite blunt.
one thing i will comment on, i have a handful of people that have followed me for about 7 years consistently...they have all won,but not to the extent that i have beause its really hard with all the options these days...you can control your bets alot more..via halftimes, in game wagering, etc...so if you make alot of good value moves and hedges it can help to assure you a winning campain...just like if your stock broker tells you to buy at&t...well he might buy and sell it a bunch of times and make a bunch, while you just made 3%....jmo...and good luck to all
